Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Diversified Strength Fuels Record Performance: Stifel Financial Corp. (NYSE:SF) demonstrated robust performance in Q2 2025, achieving record net revenues of $1.3 billion, driven by strong contributions from Global Wealth Management and a resilient Institutional Group. This performance underscores the strength of its diversified business model amidst evolving market conditions.
• Strategic Acquisitions and European Repositioning: Recent acquisitions, including B. Riley Financial, Inc. (RILY)'s wealth management business and Bryan Garnier in Europe, are strategically enhancing Stifel's core capabilities. The Bryan Garnier deal specifically aims to reposition European operations towards high-margin advisory and investment banking, moving away from capital-intensive sales and trading.
• Advisor-Centric Culture Drives Wealth Management Growth: Stifel's consistent top rankings in advisor satisfaction and accelerated recruiting efforts are fueling record client assets and fee-based assets, positioning Global Wealth Management as a sustained long-term growth engine.
• Optimistic Outlook with Disciplined Capital Allocation: Management maintains confidence in its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting continued revenue growth and a path to $8 EPS, with a long-term vision for $10 billion in revenue and $1 trillion in client assets. Capital allocation remains dynamic, balancing bank growth and share repurchases based on market conditions and risk-adjusted returns.
• Technological Amplification for Future Efficiency: Stifel views AI as a critical amplifier for professional productivity and decision-making across the firm, with early wins in investment banking analytics and advisor support, aiming for significant efficiencies without replacing the human element of its advice-centric model.

Stifel's Enduring Vision and Market Position

Stifel Financial Corp., founded in 1890, has evolved into a diversified financial services powerhouse, strategically expanding its footprint since the pivotal 2005 acquisition of Legg Mason Capital Markets. This foundational move set the stage for a client-centric, entrepreneurial culture that prioritizes long-term relationships and studied advice. The firm's overarching strategy centers on organic growth through talent acquisition, opportunistic acquisitions, and continuous enhancement of its service offerings across retail brokerage, investment banking, and banking services.

Within the competitive financial services landscape, Stifel positions itself as a formidable mid-tier player, distinguishing itself from larger, more globally diversified giants like Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS), as well as more advisor-centric firms like Raymond James (RJF) and capital markets specialists like Jefferies Financial Group (JEF). Stifel's strength lies in its regional influence, particularly across the U.S., UK, Europe, and Canada, coupled with a deep expertise in specialized niches like municipal finance and financial institutions M&A. This focused agility allows Stifel to compete effectively by providing personalized service and leveraging its integrated banking capabilities.

The industry is currently experiencing significant shifts, including an accelerating trend in bank M&A, a more favorable regulatory environment under the new administration, and a rebound in capital markets activity driven by pent-up demand. These broad trends create a fertile ground for Stifel's strategic initiatives, particularly in its Institutional Group.

A key differentiator for Stifel, and increasingly a strategic imperative, is its approach to Technological Differentiation and Innovation. Stifel views Artificial Intelligence (AI) not merely as a tool for back-office automation but as a fundamental platform to enhance client service, data management, and accelerate insights. The firm is systematically reviewing workflows across its operations where intelligent agents can amplify professionals' productivity and decision-making. Early successes have been noted in areas such as investment banking analytics and advisor support.

The tangible benefits of this AI strategy are expected to manifest in increased efficiency and productivity, allowing Stifel to grow without necessarily driving profitability solely through workforce reductions. Instead, personnel can be reassigned to other value-added tasks in areas like onboarding, marketing, compliance, AML, and enhanced investment banking analytics. This approach aims to make "smarter people smarter" by providing tools that summarize, compare, and contrast information, and apply fixed rules more efficiently. While specific quantitative metrics for AI-driven improvements are still emerging, the strategic intent is clear: to leverage off-the-shelf AI solutions, customized for Stifel's specific needs, to create "big efficiencies" and strengthen its competitive moat by enhancing service delivery and operational execution. This technological roadmap is foundational to Stifel's long-term growth strategy, enabling it to maintain its client-centric model while competing effectively on efficiency and insight against rivals.

Global Wealth Management: The Consistent Growth Engine

Stifel's Global Wealth Management segment continues to be the bedrock of its long-term growth strategy, consistently delivering record performance. In Q2 2025, the segment achieved its strongest second quarter ever, reporting net revenues of $845.6 million, a 5.6% increase year-over-year. This growth was primarily fueled by higher asset management revenues, net interest income, and commission revenues. The segment's pretax margin stood at a healthy 36.2% for the quarter.

The segment's success is deeply rooted in its advisor-centric culture, which has earned Stifel the #1 ranking in the J.D. Power Advisor Satisfaction Study for the third consecutive year. This recognition translates directly into a recruiting advantage, as evidenced by Q2 2025 being the strongest recruiting quarter since Q4 2015. Stifel added 82 new advisors, including 36 through the strategic acquisition of a portion of B. Riley Financial, Inc. 's wealth management business in April 2025, and 21 experienced advisors representing $51 million in trailing 12-month production. These new additions contributed to record total client assets of $517 billion and fee-based assets of $206 billion, with annualized June net new assets around 5%.

Compared to competitors like Raymond James, which also emphasizes advisor networks, Stifel's integrated banking services and strong operational support provide a more holistic platform, enhancing advisor productivity and client retention. This focus on attracting highly productive, holistic teams that utilize both money management and banking services differentiates Stifel and drives stable, recurring revenue streams, with over 75% of segment revenues now coming from asset management fees and net interest income.

Institutional Group: Rebounding Momentum and Strategic Repositioning

The Institutional Group, while historically more susceptible to market volatility, demonstrated resilient performance in Q2 2025, with total revenue for the segment increasing 7% year-over-year to $419.8 million. This growth was driven by record fixed income revenue and a late-quarter pickup in investment banking activity. The segment's income before income taxes rose 25% year-over-year to $61.0 million, though its pretax margin of 14.5% remains below management's target of "north of 20%" in a normalized operating environment, indicating significant upside potential.

A key strategic move in this segment was the acquisition of Bryan Garnier, a European boutique investment bank specializing in technology and healthcare, completed in June 2025. This acquisition is central to Stifel's broader effort to reposition its European operations, shifting focus from capital-intensive sales and trading towards high-margin advisory and investment banking. This strategic pivot aims to improve long-term profitability and leverage synergies with Stifel's U.S. operations.

Stifel's Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) subsidiary continues to be a dominant force in financial institutions M&A, advising on an "extraordinary market share" of 84% of total disclosed bank and thrift deal value in 2025. This leadership positions Stifel as the "first call in bank M&A," a sector that is "accelerating" due to strategic needs for consolidation and an improved regulatory backdrop. Furthermore, Stifel's public finance team maintained its #1 ranking by number of negotiated issues led as sole or senior manager for the 11th consecutive year in 2024, with over 15% market share. These specialized areas provide Stifel with a competitive edge against broader investment banks like Goldman Sachs, which may focus on larger, more global transactions, allowing Stifel to capture significant market share in its chosen niches.

Financial Health and Capital Management: A Foundation for Growth

Stifel's consolidated financial performance in Q2 2025 reflects a firm capitalizing on improving market conditions while maintaining a disciplined approach to financial management. Net revenues for the quarter increased 5.4% to $1.28 billion, and for the six months ended June 30, 2025, they rose 6.7% to $2.54 billion. However, net income available to common shareholders saw a decrease of 6.6% for the quarter and 38.9% for the six-month period, primarily due to a significant $180 million legal charge recorded in Q1 2025 and increased provision for credit losses. The compensation ratio for Q2 2025 was 60.3%, up from 59.3% in the prior year, reflecting higher compensable revenues.

The firm's liquidity remains robust, with $1.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $12.6 billion in total liquid assets as of June 30, 2025. Deposits, primarily from brokerage clients, form the largest funding source, totaling $28.7 billion, including $15.0 billion in the Smart Rate program. Stifel Bancorp maintains substantial borrowing capacity with the Federal Home Loan Bank and the Fed's discount window, ensuring ample liquidity. The company's regulatory capital ratios are strong, with banking subsidiaries categorized as "well capitalized."

Stifel's capital allocation strategy is dynamic and responsive to market conditions. While Q1 2025 saw a tactical shift towards share repurchases due to depressed equity valuations, Q2 2025 marked a return to prioritizing bank growth, as management found it "more accretive" given current equity market valuations. The company anticipates an incremental $1 billion of loan growth in the second half of 2025. This disciplined approach, balancing organic growth, strategic acquisitions, and shareholder returns, is a hallmark of Stifel's long-term value creation.

Comparing Stifel's financial health to its peers, its latest TTM Gross Profit Margin of 57.00% is competitive, notably higher than Morgan Stanley's 56% and Goldman Sachs's 41%, but lower than Raymond James's 85%. Stifel's Net Profit Margin of 9.16% is also competitive, though it trails MS (13%) and RJF (14%), while exceeding GS (11%) and JEF (7%). Its Debt/Equity ratio of 0.55 is significantly lower than MS (3.45), GS (5.06), and JEF (2.00), indicating a more conservative capital structure. This lower leverage provides greater financial flexibility and resilience, a key advantage in volatile markets.

Outlook and Risks: Navigating the Path Ahead

Stifel's management expresses strong confidence in achieving its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting total net revenue between $5.25 billion and $5.75 billion, with net interest income (NII) ranging from $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion. This outlook is underpinned by an anticipated strong second half of 2025, driven by improving investor sentiment, increased clarity on tariff and tax policies (including the retroactive One Big Beautiful Bill Act), and a rebound in M&A and capital markets activity. The firm is targeting $8 of earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, a goal that management views as a stepping stone towards ambitious long-term targets of $10 billion in revenue and $1 trillion in client assets, ultimately aiming for $10 EPS with pretax margins around 22%.

Despite this optimism, Stifel remains disciplined and acknowledges potential headwinds. The firm faces significant legal and regulatory risks, including a $132.5 million FINRA arbitration award (which it is appealing) and ongoing class-action litigation regarding cash sweep products. These matters could result in material liabilities, though management believes it is appropriately accrued. Market volatility, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical events also pose risks, as Stifel's profitability is highly correlated to market conditions. Management notes that "valuations are now pricing in near perfect outcomes," and a "brief pullback wouldn't surprise us," highlighting a cautious stance despite the positive momentum. The company's strategy to leverage AI for productivity aims to mitigate some operational risks and enhance efficiency, contributing to its long-term resilience.

Conclusion

Stifel Financial Corp. stands at an exciting juncture, having successfully navigated past market challenges to emerge with renewed momentum in 2025. The firm's core investment thesis is built on its diversified, client-centric business model, which consistently delivers strong results through its Global Wealth Management and Institutional Group segments. Strategic acquisitions, a relentless focus on advisor satisfaction, and the tactical repositioning of its European operations are all designed to amplify growth and enhance profitability.

The firm's robust financial health, characterized by strong liquidity and a conservative capital structure, provides a solid foundation for continued expansion, particularly in bank lending. While legal and market risks persist, Stifel's disciplined capital allocation and proactive embrace of technological advancements like AI position it to capitalize on improving market conditions. With a clear roadmap towards ambitious long-term targets and a proven track record of growth, Stifel Financial presents a compelling investment story for discerning investors seeking a resilient and strategically evolving player in the capital markets sector.