Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• T1 Energy Inc. has undergone a rapid transformation, pivoting from a battery development focus to become a U.U.S. solar module manufacturer and energy solutions provider following the acquisition of Trina Solar's U.S. assets.
• The G1 Dallas facility is now operational and generating revenue, serving as the launchpad for T1's strategy to build a vertically integrated U.S. solar supply chain, highlighted by the planned G2 Austin solar cell facility.
• While operational ramp-up at G1 is strong, near-term market uncertainty driven by evolving trade policy and tariffs has led to a downward revision of 2025 production and EBITDA guidance, reflecting a prudent approach to merchant sales.
• The long-term investment thesis remains centered on the significant earnings and cash flow potential of the integrated G1/G2 operations, projected to reach an annual EBITDA run rate of $650 million to $700 million beyond 2026.
• Key factors for investors to monitor include clarity on U.S. trade and energy policy, progress on financing and developing the G2 Austin facility, and the company's ability to secure long-term, high-margin offtake contracts.

Setting the Scene: A New Dawn in U.S. Solar Manufacturing

T1 Energy Inc., formerly known as FREYR Battery, Inc. (FREY), is rapidly redefining itself as a key player in the burgeoning U.S. clean energy landscape. The company is strategically focused on building an integrated domestic supply chain for solar and batteries, manufacturing and selling photovoltaic (PV) solar modules primarily for the U.S. market. This represents a significant pivot, catalyzed by the transformative acquisition of Trina Solar U.S. Holding Inc. (688599)'s manufacturing assets in December 2024.

This acquisition provided T1 with an immediate operational footprint: the state-of-the-art 5 GW G1 Dallas solar module manufacturing facility in Wilmer, Texas. This facility positions T1 as one of the largest domestic solar module producers, representing approximately 10% of installed U.S. capacity. The strategic shift aligns with powerful tailwinds in the U.S. energy sector, where solar and battery storage are rapidly becoming the fastest and most cost-effective additions to generating capacity, driven by electrification trends, energy-intensive technologies like AI, and supportive policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

T1's strategy is to leverage its domestic manufacturing base and access to industry-leading technology to meet growing U.S. demand for solar products with high domestic content. While the company retains a long-term vision encompassing battery solutions, its immediate focus and revenue generation capability are firmly rooted in solar module production. The company's history, which included ambitious plans for novel battery technology (24M SemiSolid) and large-scale facilities in Europe and the U.S. (Giga Arctic, CQP, Giga America), provides context for its current strategic prioritization and the ongoing process of optimizing its legacy asset portfolio.

The Operational Core: G1 Dallas Takes Flight

The G1 Dallas facility is the operational heart of the new T1 Energy. This highly automated plant is now fully operational, having successfully completed the conversion of its construction loan to a $235 million term loan in April 2025, a key milestone confirming the facility's readiness. The ramp-up of module production has proceeded smoothly, exceeding initial forecasts in early 2025.

Operational flexibility is already evident, with the company electing to convert three production lines from PERC to TOPCon technology. This decision reflects T1's responsiveness to prevailing market conditions and customer demand for higher-performance TOPCon modules. Deliveries under existing offtake agreements, including those with the Trina Group and RWE (RWE), have begun to ramp up, marking T1's entry into revenue generation.

Building the Future: Vertical Integration with G2 Austin

T1's strategic ambition extends beyond module assembly to building a truly integrated U.S. solar supply chain. The next critical step is the planned 5 GW G2 Austin solar cell manufacturing facility at Sandow Lakes Ranch in Milam County, Texas. Site selection was completed on an accelerated timeline, and initial project development, including engineering and vendor tendering, is underway.

G2 Austin is envisioned as a game-changer, enabling T1 to produce U.S.-made solar cells, a key component for maximizing domestic content in its modules. The company targets achieving over 70% domestic content by 2027, a strategy designed to position customers to qualify for valuable IRA Section 48E domestic content bonuses. This vertical integration is expected to enhance T1's competitive positioning, improve margins, and establish G2 Austin as a significant future cash flow engine, contributing to a projected integrated G1/G2 annual EBITDA run rate of $650 million to $700 million beyond 2026. The project is planned in two 2.4 GW phases, offering flexibility, with first production anticipated in Q4 2026.

Technology and Competitive Positioning

T1's competitive strategy in the U.S. solar market is built on a combination of domestic manufacturing, access to advanced technology, and a focus on domestic content. Through its partnership with Trina, T1 can offer modules utilizing both established PERC and higher-efficiency TOPCon technologies. The planned G2 Austin facility will further enhance this by enabling domestic production of TOPCon cells.

While specific quantitative performance metrics for T1's modules versus competitors were not detailed, the ability to offer U.S.-made modules with industry-leading TOPCon technology and a clear path to high domestic content is a significant differentiator. This directly addresses customer demand for supply chain resilience, reduced exposure to tariff risks, and eligibility for IRA incentives. The company supports tariffs that level the playing field for domestic manufacturers, viewing them as beneficial to its strategy.

In the broader energy solutions landscape, T1 operates alongside players focused on different technologies or market segments, such as BESS providers like ESS Tech (GWH), Fluence Energy (FLNC), and Enphase Energy (ENPH). While these companies compete in related energy storage markets, T1's current core focus is distinct, centered on large-scale U.S. solar module and future cell manufacturing. T1's competitive edge in its chosen market segment stems from its physical U.S. manufacturing presence, technological capabilities derived from the Trina partnership, and strategic emphasis on domestic content, rather than proprietary battery technology at this stage.

Financial Performance and Liquidity

The first quarter of 2025 marked T1's first full period as a revenue-generating entity following the Trina acquisition. The company reported net sales of $64.6 million, primarily from related party sales to the Trina Group, resulting in a gross profit of $29.0 million. This contrasts sharply with zero revenue in the prior year period. Operating expenses saw a significant increase, with SG&A rising by 250% to $52.6 million, reflecting the costs associated with integrating the acquired business and building out the new corporate structure.

The company reported a net loss from continuing operations of $23.6 million and a net loss from discontinued operations (related to legacy European and Georgia assets) of $12.1 million. Cash and cash equivalents stood at $51.1 million as of March 31, 2025. Operating cash flow was negative ($44.8 million used), driven by increased working capital needs for the solar business and a government grant repayment. Investing activities provided cash ($22.1 million), largely due to the $50 million sale of land in Coweta County, Georgia.

Despite the Q1 cash usage, T1 projects a positive liquidity outlook, expecting cash and liquidity to exceed $100 million by year-end 2025, even at the low end of its revised guidance. This is supported by anticipated operating cash flows from contracted sales, expected monetization of Section 45X production tax credits in Q2 or Q3 2025, and cost savings from the wind-down of legacy European operations. The company believes its current cash resources are sufficient for at least the next 12 months, though significant external financing will be required for the G2 Austin project.

Outlook and Near-Term Headwinds

While the long-term vision for T1 remains compelling, the company has adjusted its near-term outlook due to market dynamics. The 2025 production plan for G1 Dallas has been modified to 2.6 to 3 gigawatts, down from a prior target of 3.4 GW. Correspondingly, the full-year 2025 EBITDA guidance has been reduced to $30 million to $50 million, from an earlier range of $75 million to $125 million.

Management attributes this revision entirely to a lower sales outlook driven by near-term market uncertainty, particularly around trade policy and tariffs. This uncertainty has created a temporary lull in bidding activity for merchant sales, and T1 is taking a prudent approach, electing not to overproduce or engage in merchant sales that do not offer attractive, risk-adjusted margins. The facility remains technically capable of producing at its full 5 GW capacity, indicating the adjustment is a strategic response to market conditions, not an operational issue.

Risks and Challenges

T1's path forward is subject to several key risks. The most prominent near-term challenge is the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, including the duration and scope of existing and potential new tariffs on solar components and modules. Changes in these policies could significantly impact module costs, pricing, and customer demand, potentially leading to contract cancellations or reduced profitability. Lingering uncertainty around the future state of the Inflation Reduction Act, including foreign entity of concern language, also poses a risk to accessing crucial incentives like the 45X production tax credit and 48E domestic content bonuses.

Successfully financing the estimated $850 million G2 Austin facility is another critical hurdle, requiring a combination of project finance, potential government support, customer commitments, and other capital sources. Macroeconomic volatility could further impact demand and financing availability. While the company is actively managing its legacy European assets, the process of winding down operations and potentially harvesting value carries execution risk. The ongoing CFIUS review related to the Trina transaction is also a factor to monitor, as it is a precondition for certain share conversions.

Conclusion

T1 Energy has successfully executed a dramatic corporate transformation, establishing itself as a significant U.S. solar module manufacturer with a clear strategic roadmap for vertical integration. The operational G1 Dallas facility provides a tangible platform and immediate revenue stream, while the planned G2 Austin solar cell plant represents the key to unlocking higher domestic content, enhanced competitive positioning, and substantial long-term earnings potential.

While near-term market uncertainty, particularly concerning trade policy, presents headwinds that have necessitated a cautious approach to merchant sales and a revised 2025 outlook, the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. solar market remain robust. The long-term thesis hinges on T1's ability to capitalize on its domestic manufacturing base, access to leading technology, and strategic focus on building an integrated U.S. supply chain to meet growing demand for high-quality, high-domestic-content solar products. Investors should weigh the significant long-term growth potential against the execution risks associated with policy volatility and the substantial capital requirements for the G2 project.