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                                            Pony AI's Autonomous Ascent: Scaling for Profitability in China's Robotaxi Race (NASDAQ:PONY)
                                        
                                    
                                
                                October 05, 2025
                            
                            
                                Sequential trend matters! Robotaxi services were $1.73m in Q1 and $1.5m in Q2. That is down about 12% quarter-over-quarter despite big YoY growth claims. Expanding a fleet, while dropping in revenue? What's up? Would be great if the drop could be explained. Robotaxi is a big future promise, but right now represents 7% of their whole business. You highlight surging users, (registered app users grew +300%). Apparently that surge did not convert into sequential revenue growth. Sounds like a monetisation issue to me. Could be a utilisation issue as well. Is it a glitch or structural? It states “only company with fully driverless commercial operations across all four Tier-1 cities.” That phrasing mirrors company PR. Cool. But what's really happening here? They have a limited bankable footprint and it's time ops are also limited (in Shanghai and Beijing). The question is, what are their bankable options to scale?  New domains that not bankable yet. Dubai, Singapore and likely Doha (depending on the speed) will get lit commercially in 2026. South Korea, no sooner than 2027.Luxembourg 2  So they are they stuck with 1000 units they are  not able to fully deploy? Or are they able to scale beyond China Tier 1? No they are not.
Robotruck was down -10% on company claims of margin improvement. Is it a deliberate exit from low-margin work or demand softness? Currently a single customer, that also is responsible for more than 60% of the business, is a joint venture that Pony owns. It puts revenue quality at question.
Their quarter on revenue was saved by hardware-heavy revenue tied to autonomous drive controller-delivery customers, not recurring software. An OEM or major platform could've pulled forward a batch (Toyota GAC, or a large platform customer like Meituan). Right now it sounds like there's organic traction, but the company’s own note attributes it to ADC product demand. Is it just a hardware batch pulled forward?
                            
                            
                        
                                
                                October 05, 2025
                            
                            
                                Two points that need correction: GXR compute: It says 1,300 TOPS. WeRide’s HPC 3.0 (in GXR) is billed at ~2,000 TOPS and “world’s first mass-produced L4 AV on NVIDIA DRIVE Thor.” WeRide discloses “no active safety incidents” and “zero regulatory discipline for system failure,” for more than 2200 days. That's impressive, and market leading, but not the same as zero accidents.
What is misunderstood about this company, is their market entry strategy. They open markets, not necessarily taxi, through their multi domain approach. Their safety record is unmatched. Their partnerships provide a layer of credibility. It's these ingredients that help them enter markets first and get that regulatory advantage. 
Once they have first entry, like happened in Singapore, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Dubai, France, Switzerland, Belgium, it can develop regulatory alignment, and push agendas forward. Depending on market timing, they can line up the right partners (Uber, Grab, Yutong, Renault, Nissan etc.) to further roll out their robotaxi strategy. Uber rails, as shown in Abu Dhabi can quickly open up markets for them. A carbon copy rollout can be made for other cities (that are set up to launch by end of year, Riyadh expected this month, Dubai early next year). This is a repeatable business model on Uber rails. (3 cities lined up every year, expect more city announcements to come on a regular basis). In SEA you can expect a similar approach. Starting with Singapore, in a Grab flavour. Other likely candidate is Malaysia.
WeRide is the AV company that can truly claim to be the safety leader in the world. They can also claim the regulatory leader title, as no other AV company comes close to the footprint they have, cross continent, cross several domains.
                            
                            
                         
                     
                                             
        