Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Aon plc is executing a robust "3x3 Plan" to drive sustainable growth and shareholder value by integrating its Risk Capital and Human Capital solutions, powered by Aon Business Services (ABS), in response to increasing global complexity and volatility.
• The company delivered strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with 7% organic revenue growth and a 170 basis point expansion in adjusted operating margin to 26.3%, demonstrating effective operational leverage and strategic investments.
• Technological differentiation, including advanced Risk Analyzer tools and the Aon Broker Copilot, is central to Aon's competitive moat, enhancing client decision-making, improving retention, and driving new business wins.
• Strategic capital allocation, including the successful integration of NFP and the recent divestiture of NFP Wealth, strengthens Aon's balance sheet, supports programmatic M&A, and underpins a commitment to double-digit free cash flow growth and shareholder returns.
• Aon is actively addressing significant market opportunities, such as the estimated $10 billion in new premium volume from data center construction by 2026 and rising healthcare costs, through innovative, data-driven solutions.

A Global Powerhouse Reshaping Risk and Human Capital

Aon plc, founded in 1919 in Dublin, Ireland, has evolved into a leading global professional services firm, strategically focused on providing integrated Risk Capital and Human Capital solutions. The company's overarching strategy, the "Aon United" approach, is operationalized through its "3x3 Plan," a three-year initiative designed to accelerate value creation for clients and shareholders by connecting previously disparate capabilities. This strategic evolution, which included the divestiture of its benefits administration business in 2017 to sharpen its focus, positions Aon at the forefront of addressing the intensifying challenges faced by businesses worldwide.

The global landscape is characterized by increasing volatility and complexity, driven by four interconnected megatrends: trade, technology, weather, and workforce. Aon's 2025 Global Risk Management Survey highlights that trade and geopolitical volatility have entered the top 10 global risks for the first time in nearly two decades, while climate risk and natural disasters have reached their highest ever rankings. These trends underscore a growing demand for sophisticated risk mitigation and human capital management, areas where Aon aims to differentiate itself. The market, though growing, remains relatively underpenetrated, presenting substantial opportunities for firms capable of delivering integrated, data-driven solutions.

In this dynamic environment, Aon competes directly with global professional services giants such as Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC), Willis Towers Watson (WTW), and Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG). While MMC often exhibits a broader global footprint and diversified portfolio, and WTW emphasizes analytics-driven human capital solutions, Aon distinguishes itself through its unique integration of Risk Capital and Human Capital, amplified by its proprietary technology. AJG, with its aggressive acquisition strategy, often leads in market expansion, but Aon's focus on holistic solutions and advanced analytics provides a differentiated value proposition. Aon's strategic positioning is to be a high-value partner, not a low-price provider, by demonstrating quantifiable benefits to clients.

Technological Edge: Fueling Client Solutions and Operational Efficiency

Aon's competitive moat is significantly strengthened by its proprietary technology and relentless innovation, primarily channeled through Aon Business Services (ABS). ABS is the "industrial strength foundation" powering the Aon United strategy, designed to standardize operations, integrate platforms, and deliver innovation at scale. This commitment is underscored by a billion-dollar investment to reinforce ABS capabilities.

Aon's core technological differentiators include:

• Risk Analyzer Tools: Debuted in May 2024, these tools provide North American clients with exposure data, quantify loss potential, and enable better decisions based on total cost of risk. The Property Risk Analyzer, for instance, simulates the impact of insurance policy options to optimize risk retention versus transfer. The Cyber Risk Analyzer, launched in Q4 2024, helps risk managers and brokers evaluate cyber risk and maximize insurance value. The Health Risk Analyzer leverages predictive modeling and risk optimization to identify and manage healthcare costs. These tools enhance win rates for Aon in competitive bids and deepen client relationships by offering unparalleled data-led insights.
• Aon Broker Copilot: Launched in Q2 2025, this patent-pending platform utilizes artificial intelligence (AI), large-language models, and predictive analytics to transform commercial insurance placement. It provides brokers with an enhanced view of real-time market pricing, augmenting predictive broking and enabling Aon to match capital to risk in an unparalleled manner.
• Aon Surge Stop-Loss: A first-of-its-kind cyber reinsurance offering developed and placed in Q2 2025, this solution enables enhanced protection against cumulative cyber losses. Unlike traditional products, it triggers based on aggregate loss thresholds, offering broader and more flexible protection, which is crucial given the increasing frequency and severity of cyber attacks.

These technological advancements provide tangible benefits. ABS-driven scale improvements are expected to generate up to 120 basis points in margin expansion, creating capacity to fund further growth investments. The ability to offer "next-generation client experience" through these tools is a key differentiator, attracting talent and clients who seek to "wow a client" with capabilities they haven't had before. For investors, this technological leadership translates into a stronger competitive moat, supporting higher client retention, increased new business wins, and ultimately, superior financial performance through enhanced margins and sustained growth.

Financial Performance and Operational Momentum

Aon's financial performance in 2025 demonstrates the tangible impact of its strategic initiatives. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total revenue increased by $1.3 billion, or 12%, to $12.88 billion compared to the prior year. This growth was fueled by a 6% organic revenue increase and the contribution from the NFP acquisition.

In the third quarter of 2025, Aon reported:

• Total Revenue: $3.997 billion, an increase of 7% year-over-year.
• Organic Revenue Growth: 7%, marking the second consecutive quarter with new business contributing 11 points to organic revenue growth.
• Adjusted Operating Income: Increased 15% to $1.1 billion.
• Adjusted Operating Margin: Expanded by 170 basis points to 26.3%.
• Adjusted Diluted EPS: $3.05 per share, up 12% from the prior year period.

• Free Cash Flow: Increased 13% year-over-year to $1.1 billion in Q3 2025, and $1.9 billion year-to-date.

Segment-Specific Performance (Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025):

• Risk Capital: Total revenue increased 8% to $8.58 billion, with an operating income of $2.646 billion. Commercial Risk Solutions revenue grew 9% to $6.168 billion, driven by 6% organic growth, reflecting strong performance in North America and EMEA, and double-digit growth in M&A services and construction. Reinsurance Solutions revenue increased 5% to $2.414 billion, with 5% organic growth from treaty placements and double-digit growth in facultative placements and the Strategy and Technology Group.
• Human Capital: Total revenue increased 20% to $4.311 billion, with an operating income of $852 million. Health Solutions revenue grew 21% to $2.733 billion, with 6% organic growth from core health and benefits and talent analytics. Wealth Solutions revenue increased 18% to $1.578 billion, with 5% organic growth driven by regulatory advisory work and NFP asset inflows.
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Operationally, the "Accelerating Aon United Program" (AAU), a three-year restructuring initiative, is on track. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total Program costs incurred were $236 million, with expected cumulative costs of $1 billion ($0.9 billion cash, $0.1 billion non-cash). This program is estimated to generate annualized expense savings of approximately $350 million by the end of 2026, with $110 million of expense savings realized in the first nine months of 2025.

The acquisition of NFP in April 2024 has been a significant growth driver, expanding Aon's presence in the $31 billion North American middle market. NFP has already closed $32 million in acquired EBITDA through programmatic M&A in the first nine months of 2025, with a strong pipeline for additional tuck-in acquisitions. The divestiture of a significant majority of NFP's wealth businesses, completed on October 30, 2025, for $2.3 billion, further refines Aon's portfolio, reinforcing its focus on core Risk Capital and Human Capital capabilities.

Outlook and Strategic Trajectory

Aon's management has reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth, 80 to 90 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion, strong adjusted EPS growth, and double-digit free cash flow growth. This confidence is rooted in the continued execution of the 3x3 Plan and the resilience of its business model.

Key assumptions underpinning this outlook include:

• Talent Contribution: The 2024 cohort of revenue-generating hires is expected to contribute 30 to 35 basis points to full-year organic revenue growth in 2025. Revenue-generating talent was up 6% net year-to-date in Q3 2025, reflecting Aon's ability to attract top talent in priority areas like construction and energy.
• NFP Synergies: Aon is on track to achieve $80 million in net revenue synergies from NFP in 2025 and $30 million in OpEx synergies, which will result in a net 20 basis point headwind to margins for the year as the acquisition is fully lapped. NFP is also expected to contribute over $300 million to free cash flow in 2025.
• Restructuring Savings: The AAU program is projected to deliver $150 million in savings for 2025, contributing approximately 85 basis points to adjusted operating margin, and is on track for $350 million in run-rate savings by 2026.
• Operating Leverage: ABS-driven scale improvements are expected to contribute 35 to 45 basis points of margin expansion.
• Tax Rate: The full-year effective tax rate is anticipated to be between 19.5% and 20.5%.
• Capital Allocation: Aon aims to reduce its debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio to 2.8x to 3.0x by Q4 2025. The company plans to return $1 billion to shareholders through share repurchases in 2025 and recently increased its quarterly dividend by 10%, marking 15 consecutive annual increases.

The company sees significant opportunities in emerging risk areas. Advancements in AI are driving unprecedented investment in data center construction, with CapEx estimated to exceed $2 trillion globally over the next several years. Aon estimates this could generate over $10 billion in new premium volume in 2026 alone, and the company is actively developing solutions like its data center life cycle insurance program to consolidate coverage for construction, cargo, cyber, and operational exposures. In Human Capital, U.S. employer healthcare costs are projected to rise 9.5% in 2026, exceeding $17,000 per employee, creating sustained demand for Aon's health solutions and predictive analytics.

Risks and Competitive Dynamics

Despite a robust outlook, Aon operates within a complex and competitive landscape. The macroeconomic and geopolitical environment presents ongoing uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts, tariffs, changes in trade policies, capital markets volatility, and inflation. These factors could negatively impact financial performance, particularly through potential pressures on client discretionary spending.

The insurance market itself is dynamic. While Aon's integrated solutions help mitigate the impact, pricing pressure exists in certain lines, such as property, financial lines, and cyber, reflecting a "buyer friendly" trading environment in some micro-markets. However, this is often offset by increased limits and coverage in other areas, and a high demand for sophisticated risk management. Aon's strategy to focus on value, rather than low price, is a direct response to this dynamic, aiming to deliver quantifiable benefits that justify its offerings.

Legal proceedings, such as those related to allegations of fraudulent letters of credit arranged by Vesttoo Ltd., represent another area of risk, although Aon has recognized legal settlement expenses and recoveries, reducing the initial charge.

In the competitive arena, Aon's technological edge and integrated "Risk Capital" and "Human Capital" approach differentiate it from rivals. While competitors like MMC and WTW offer strong global platforms and analytics, Aon's specific investment in tools like the Risk Analyzers and Broker Copilot aims to provide superior client insights and operational efficiency. Aon's focus on attracting and developing talent, reinforced by its ABS capabilities, is a strategic counter to the industry's intense competition for skilled professionals. The company's active portfolio management, including the NFP acquisition and subsequent divestiture, demonstrates a disciplined approach to optimizing its competitive position and capital deployment.

Conclusion

Aon plc stands as a compelling investment proposition, firmly rooted in its "Aon United" strategy and "3x3 Plan." The company's commitment to integrating its Risk Capital and Human Capital expertise, powered by a significant investment in Aon Business Services, is driving both top-line growth and operational efficiency. This strategic framework, coupled with a disciplined approach to capital allocation and a focus on high-return opportunities like data center risk management and healthcare cost mitigation, positions Aon for sustained financial performance.

The company's consistent delivery of mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth, expanding margins, and double-digit free cash flow growth underscores the effectiveness of its strategy in a volatile global environment. Aon's technological differentiators, from advanced analytics to AI-powered brokerage tools, are not merely innovations but fundamental competitive advantages that enhance client value and strengthen its market position against formidable rivals. For investors, Aon represents a firm actively shaping decisions for the better, translating its strategic vision into tangible financial results and long-term shareholder value creation.