JP Morgan downgraded Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR) from Overweight to Neutral on November 14, 2025, citing a lack of near‑term catalysts and subdued traffic momentum in Mexico.
ASR operates 16 airports across Mexico, Colombia, and Puerto Rico. In the most recent quarter, Mexican passenger traffic fell 3% year‑over‑year, with Cancun Airport down 2% and Puerto Rico down 1.7%. In contrast, traffic in Colombia grew 5.1%, reflecting a regional imbalance that weighs on the company’s overall performance. The opening of Tulum International Airport has intensified competition for international arrivals at Cancun, further dampening traffic prospects.
The downgrade followed a quarterly earnings miss. ASR reported earnings per share of $3.84 versus consensus expectations of $5.26, and revenue of $475.8 million against an estimate of $502.9 million. The shortfall is largely attributable to weaker Mexican traffic, which reduced passenger‑related revenue, and to higher operating costs that offset the modest growth in other markets.
JP Morgan’s decision was mirrored by a downgrade from Morgan Stanley, which moved ASR from Equalweight to Underweight. The rating changes reflect a broader reassessment of the company’s risk profile, driven by traffic headwinds and earnings shortfalls.
The downgrade may influence ASR’s ability to secure financing for its capital‑expenditure program, including the $467 million Terminal 4 expansion at Cancun Airport and other projects totaling $1.41 billion across its Mexican terminals through 2028. Higher borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions could constrain the pace of investment and affect the company’s long‑term growth strategy.
To counter the traffic slowdown, ASR will need to strengthen its competitive positioning, manage costs, and demonstrate resilience in its core Mexican markets while leveraging growth opportunities in Colombia and Puerto Rico. The company’s future performance will hinge on its ability to reverse the traffic decline and maintain profitability amid a challenging operating environment.
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