ConocoPhillips reported third‑quarter 2025 results that included a net income of $1.7 billion, or $1.38 per share, and adjusted earnings of $2.0 billion, or $1.61 per share. Revenue climbed to $15.52 billion, up from $13.60 billion in Q3 2024, while production rose to 2,399 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, an increase of 482 MBOED year‑over‑year. The company’s operating margin contracted to 9.9% from 10.2% in the prior year, reflecting lower realized crude prices and a shift toward lower‑margin assets.
The adjusted earnings per share beat consensus estimates of $1.45–$1.41 by $0.20, driven by disciplined cost control and the volume boost from the Marathon Oil integration. However, reported EPS of $1.38 missed the consensus of $1.40–$1.42 by $0.02, a shortfall largely attributable to the lower realized commodity prices that reduced revenue per barrel. The divergence between adjusted and reported EPS underscores the company’s ability to manage operating costs while highlighting the sensitivity of reported earnings to market price swings.
Revenue growth was led by a 12% increase in the Lower 48 segment, where higher output from the Marathon Oil assets offset modest price declines. The Alaska segment also contributed a 9% rise, driven by steady production at the Willow project. International revenue grew 5%, supported by stable demand in the Middle East and Asia. The combined effect of higher volumes and a favorable product mix helped the company beat revenue estimates of $14.64–$14.87 billion, despite the broader market’s weaker oil price environment.
Production gains were largely a result of the Marathon Oil integration, which added 200 MBOED of net new output and improved operational leverage. The company’s cost base remained relatively flat, but the lower realized crude prices compressed gross margins. Management noted that the company’s cost advantage—maintaining an average cost per barrel of oil equivalent below peers—helped mitigate the impact of price volatility on operating income.
ConocoPhillips increased its ordinary dividend by 8% to $0.84 per share, with a record date of November 17 and payment on December 1. The company also repurchased $1.3 billion of shares during the quarter, reinforcing confidence in its cash‑generation capacity. Guidance for Q4 2025 projects production of 2.30–2.34 MMBOED, and the full‑year 2025 production outlook was raised to 2.375 MMBOED. Capital expenditures for the year were guided at $2.87 billion, while operating cash flow was projected at $5.9 billion. Management highlighted that the Willow project capital guidance was updated to $8.5–$9.0 billion and LNG development guidance was reduced to $3.4 billion, reflecting a focus on long‑cycle growth.
Analysts responded positively to the adjusted EPS and revenue beats, citing strong operational execution and the momentum from the Marathon Oil integration. The reported EPS miss and the 17.2% year‑over‑year decline in net income tempered enthusiasm, underscoring the ongoing pressure from lower commodity prices. Overall, the market viewed the results as a mix of operational strength and external headwinds, with confidence in the company’s cost discipline and dividend policy.
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