A third fire erupted on November 20, 2025, at Novelis’s Oswego, New York, aluminum plant, the same facility that suffered a major blaze on September 16 and a smaller fire in October. The latest incident was a four‑alarm fire that forced an evacuation of all workers and required crews to extinguish the blaze before the plant could resume operations. The repeated incidents have left the hot‑rolling mill offline, with Novelis projecting a restart by the end of December but acknowledging that the November fire could push that timeline further.
Ford’s F‑150 line, which relies on the plant’s aluminum body panels, has already been disrupted by the September fire, prompting a temporary pause in Lightning production and a shift toward more profitable gasoline and hybrid models. The November blaze threatens to extend those disruptions, potentially delaying the delivery of both gasoline and electric F‑150s and adding an estimated $1.5‑$2 billion headwind to Ford’s 2025 adjusted EBIT. Ford’s Q3 2025 results—$50.5 billion in revenue, $2.4 billion in net income, and $2.6 billion in adjusted EBIT—were already strong, but the Novelis incident has forced a downward revision of the company’s full‑year EBIT guidance to $6 billion‑$6.5 billion.
Management has responded by mobilizing a dedicated crisis team and accelerating alternative sourcing at other suppliers. President and CEO Jim Farley emphasized the company’s “rapid crisis response” and the intent to “secure alternative supplies while boosting F‑Series production.” Chief Financial Officer Sherry House noted that Ford is “absorbing a net tariff headwind of $700 million” but remains confident that the company can offset the Novelis impact by ramping up production at other plants.
Investors have reacted to the recurring fires with heightened concern about supply‑chain resilience. Analysts have highlighted the risk that repeated disruptions at a single supplier could erode Ford’s cost advantages and delay the launch of its next‑generation F‑150, which is slated for April 2028. The market’s focus has shifted from Ford’s strong Q3 performance to the vulnerability exposed by the Novelis incidents.
The incident underscores the broader challenge Ford faces in balancing its electrification strategy with the need for reliable domestic supply chains. While the company’s shift toward gasoline and hybrid trucks has mitigated some short‑term production risk, the Novelis fires reveal a persistent bottleneck that could constrain the company’s ability to meet demand for its flagship model and impact long‑term profitability.
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