GeoPark Limited outlined its 2026 Work Program and medium‑term guidance, emphasizing a dual‑core strategy that protects its Colombian production base while expanding its Vaca Muerta operations in Argentina.
The 2026 capital‑expenditure plan calls for $190‑$220 million, supporting a projected production of 27,000‑30,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd). Under a $60‑$70 per‑barrel Brent scenario, Adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach $220‑$300 million for 2026.
Looking ahead to 2028, GeoPark projects production of 44,000‑46,000 boepd, driven by a 12‑15 % increase in Vaca Muerta output and continued optimization of its Llanos 34 asset. Capital spending for the 2026‑2028 period is projected at $290‑$320 million, and the company expects its net debt to EBITDA ratio to fall below 1.5× by 2028.
The guidance signals a near‑doubling of Adjusted EBITDA, with forecasts of $490‑$520 million by 2028—an increase of roughly 70 % from the 2026 baseline. The growth is expected to come from higher volumes, improved operating leverage, and modest margin expansion as the company scales its unconventional assets.
CEO Felipe Bayon highlighted the company’s focus on strengthening its Colombian core and building a new growth engine in Argentina. He noted that the 2026 Work Program is designed to maximize shareholder value while maintaining a disciplined balance sheet, underscoring confidence in execution and cost control.
GeoPark’s strategic pivot to Vaca Muerta diversifies its asset base and positions it to capture higher‑growth unconventional production. The company acknowledges commodity price volatility and execution risk as headwinds, but believes disciplined capital allocation and operational efficiencies will mitigate these challenges.
Comparing the guidance to recent performance, GeoPark’s Q3 2024 Adjusted EBITDA of $99.8 million and Q2 2024 figure of $127.9 million illustrate the magnitude of the projected upside. The 2026‑2028 targets represent a significant step up from current earnings levels.
In summary, GeoPark’s 2026 Work Program and medium‑term guidance reflect a clear confidence in its dual‑core strategy, disciplined capital discipline, and the potential for substantial earnings growth, while also highlighting the importance of managing commodity price risk and execution risk in its expansion plans.
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