Warrior Met Coal reported third‑quarter 2025 results that surpassed expectations, delivering net income of $36.6 million ($0.70 per diluted share) on revenue of $328.6 million. The company’s sales volume rose 27% to 2.4 million short tons and production increased 17% to 2.2 million short tons, a modest 0.3% revenue gain compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Average net selling price fell to $135.87 per short ton from $171.92 a year ago, while cash cost of sales dropped to $100.73 per short ton from $118.45, reflecting disciplined cost control amid a weaker price environment.
The early start of long‑wall operations at the Blue Creek mine—beginning in October 2025, eight months ahead of schedule and on budget—has been a key driver of the quarter’s performance. Blue Creek contributed 378,000 short tons of sales and 175,000 short tons of production, and the project is slated to ramp up to 900,000 short tons in 2025 and 2.7 million short tons in 2026. The accelerated ramp‑up has increased production volume, lowered operating costs, and improved margin contribution from the new mine.
Earnings beat analysts’ consensus of a $‑0.30 loss by $1.00, a $1.00 surprise that translates to a 350% upside. Revenue also exceeded the $305.4 million estimate by $23.2 million, a 7.6% beat. The strong performance is largely attributable to the cost advantage of Blue Creek, which has lower cash costs than the company’s older mines, and to the company’s ability to maintain pricing power in a market where average selling prices have fallen. The combination of higher volumes and lower costs produced a net income that was 12% higher than the prior year’s $41.8 million.
Management raised its full‑year 2025 guidance, increasing production and sales volume forecasts by roughly 10%. The new outlook reflects confidence that the Blue Creek ramp‑up will continue to deliver higher output and that the company’s cost structure will remain favorable. The guidance lift signals a bullish view on demand for premium metallurgical coal, even as global steel demand remains volatile.
The company also announced a federal lease acquisition in Tuscaloosa County, securing 14,050 acres with an estimated 58 million short tons of high‑quality reserves for $46.8 million. The lease expands Warrior’s reserve base and provides a long‑term growth platform, reinforcing the company’s strategic focus on low‑cost, high‑quality assets.
CEO Walt Scheller highlighted the operational success, noting that “the early startup of Blue Creek’s long‑wall significantly increases our production capacity and has already begun contributing to revenue and free cash flow.” He added that the lease acquisition “enhances our long‑term growth strategy” and that the company remains “focused on operational excellence and disciplined capital deployment.”
Market reaction to the earnings was positive, driven by the earnings beat, the early Blue Creek ramp‑up, and the raised guidance. Investors viewed the strong cost performance and the expansion of the reserve base as evidence of the company’s resilience in a challenging market, reinforcing confidence in its future prospects.
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