Imperial Oil has outlined a 2026 plan that raises capital spending to between $2.0 billion and $2.2 billion, up from the $1.9 billion–$2.1 billion range set for 2025. The company also projects upstream production of 441,000 to 460,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with Kearl expected to produce 285,000 to 295,000 barrels per day and Cold Lake 152,000 to 160,000 barrels per day, a target that aligns with the 165,000‑barrel‑per‑day goal for Cold Lake rather than the 300,000‑barrel figure mistakenly cited in earlier reports.
The strategy centers on secondary bitumen recovery at Kearl, infill drilling, and the Mahihkan SA‑SAGD project at Cold Lake, while also advancing mine progression at Kearl and Syncrude. By concentrating on high‑margin, high‑value projects, Imperial aims to lower unit cash costs and strengthen its integrated business model, thereby improving cash flow generation and supporting shareholder returns.
Downstream throughput is expected to fall to 395,000–405,000 barrels per day, a decline from the 405,000–415,000 barrels per day range in 2025, largely due to planned turnarounds at Cold Lake, Syncrude, and Kearl. The company is also scheduling maintenance at Sarnia and Strathcona refineries, which will temporarily reduce processing capacity but is intended to improve long‑term operational resilience.
Chief executive John Whelan emphasized that the 2026 plan “builds on Imperial’s strong foundation and positions the company to structurally increase cash flow by progressing toward volume and unit cash cost targets at Kearl and Cold Lake.” He added that the downstream segment will focus on “industry‑leading operational performance, enhanced logistics, and processing flexibility to improve margins and long‑term resilience.” These comments underscore management’s confidence in the plan’s ability to deliver cost efficiencies and margin expansion.
Investor reaction to the announcement was muted, with market participants expressing caution due to a perceived lack of clarity on future cash flow and debt targets. Despite the company’s optimistic outlook, the market’s focus on detailed financial projections highlights the importance of transparent guidance for long‑term investors.
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