Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Singapore's Unrivaled Performance: Marina Bay Sands (MBS) is delivering unprecedented financial results, poised to easily exceed $2.5 billion in annual Adjusted Property EBITDA for 2025, driven by record mass gaming and slot win, and enhanced by strategic renovations and technological innovation in baccarat.
• Macao's Resurgent Momentum: After strategic adjustments to its customer reinvestment approach, Las Vegas Sands' Macao operations are regaining market share and are on track for significant EBITDA growth, targeting a $2.7 billion run rate with The Londoner Macao moving towards $1 billion in annual EBITDA.
• Technological Edge in Gaming: The adoption of "smart tables" and the expansion of high-advantage baccarat side bets are fundamentally reshaping gaming profitability, providing a powerful, measurable competitive differentiator for LVS in both Singapore and increasingly in Macao.
• Disciplined Capital Allocation: LVS maintains a robust balance sheet and strong liquidity, enabling substantial capital returns to shareholders through increased dividends (20% hike for 2026) and an expanded $2 billion share repurchase program, alongside significant investments in high-return growth projects like the MBS Expansion.
• Strategic Market Positioning: LVS leverages its unparalleled scale and luxury offerings in key Asian markets, particularly in the Singapore duopoly and the competitive Macao landscape, to attract high-value tourism and drive long-term cash flow, while prudently exiting less attractive ventures like New York casino pursuit and digital gaming.

The Asian Imperative: LVS's Blueprint for Global Gaming Leadership

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS), founded in 1988, has meticulously built an empire of integrated resorts, primarily in the high-growth markets of Macao and Singapore. Its overarching strategy centers on developing and operating large-scale, high-quality assets that blend gaming, luxury accommodations, world-class retail, diverse dining, and premier entertainment. This foundational approach has shaped LVS's current market positioning, emphasizing a comprehensive lifestyle experience designed to attract high-value tourism.

The industry landscape in which LVS operates is characterized by intense competition in Macao and a strategic duopoly in Singapore. LVS's historical journey, marked by significant investments and strategic adaptations, underscores its commitment to market leadership. For instance, its Macao concession, renewed until December 31, 2032, mandates substantial non-gaming investments, aligning with the company's vision of diversified integrated resorts. Similarly, the ongoing $8 billion Marina Bay Sands (MBS) Expansion Project (IR2) in Singapore, set for completion by June 2030, is a testament to LVS's long-term commitment to high-return growth.

A critical differentiator and growing competitive moat for LVS lies in its embrace of technological innovation in gaming, particularly within its baccarat operations. The introduction of "smart tables" at MBS has fundamentally enhanced the company's ability to measure and understand player behavior, especially concerning side bets. These side bets, which offer a significantly higher house advantage compared to traditional baccarat wagers, are analogous to prop bets in sports betting, attracting players across all segments due to their higher volatility and potential payouts.

The tangible benefits of this technology are already evident. In Q3 2025, the theoretical hold percentage for rolling baccarat play at MBS, as measured by smart tables, reached 4.20%, a notable increase from 3.50% in Q3 2024. This shift is not merely a statistical anomaly but a direct result of customers "gravitating towards side bets that are house advantaged," as Chairman and CEO Robert Goldstein noted. The smart tables act as the "score keeper," providing precise data on these wagers. LVS is actively rolling out this smart table system in Macao, anticipating a similar positive impact on hold percentages there. This technological edge, coupled with continuous innovation in developing new side bet offerings through its "Make More Money Committee," directly contributes to LVS's competitive advantage, driving higher revenue and EBITDA, and solidifying its market positioning as a leader in gaming profitability. For investors, this means a sustainable, mathematically driven enhancement to the core gaming business, particularly crucial for a baccarat-centric operator like LVS.

Performance and Strategic Execution in Key Markets

LVS's recent financial performance reflects the successful execution of its strategy, particularly in Singapore, and a determined turnaround in Macao. For the three months ended September 30, 2025, consolidated net revenues surged to $3.33 billion, a 24.2% increase from $2.68 billion in Q3 2024. This growth was predominantly fueled by Marina Bay Sands, which contributed $514 million to the increase, alongside a $135 million rise from Macao operations.

Singapore: An Unprecedented Growth Engine
Marina Bay Sands delivered an exceptional $743 million in Adjusted Property EBITDA in Q3 2025, marking an 83% increase from Q3 2024. This performance has led management to confidently project that MBS will "easily exceed" $2.5 billion in annual EBITDA for 2025, having already surpassed $2.1 billion year-to-date. The property's mass gaming and slot win reached a record $905 million in Q3 2025, demonstrating a remarkable 122% growth from Q3 2019 and a 35% increase year-over-year. This stellar performance is a direct outcome of high-quality investments, including the completion of Tower 3 hotel room renovations in Q2 2025, and Singapore's growing appeal as a high-value tourism destination. The strategic deployment of "smart tables" and the increasing popularity of high-advantage baccarat side bets have measurably boosted casino revenues, with MBS's casino revenues increasing by $477 million in Q3 2025.

Macao: Reclaiming Market Leadership
Macao operations, while facing a competitive environment, showed an Adjusted Property EBITDA of $601 million in Q3 2025, up 2.74% year-over-year, despite a $20 million negative impact from a typhoon. Management acknowledged past underperformance due to insufficient customer reinvestment but initiated a more aggressive marketing strategy in Q2 2025. This shift is already yielding results, with mass market revenue share jumping to 25.4% in Q3 2025 from 23.6% in Q1 2025. The Londoner Macao, a key asset, saw its Adjusted Property EBITDA soar by 76.6% to $219 million in Q3 2025, as the conversion of the Sheraton Grand Macao into the Londoner Grand was completed in Q2 2025, adding 2,405 luxury rooms and suites. The Londoner is now "moving towards $1-plus billion of EBITDA." Overall Macao GGR increased 12.5% in Q3 2025, providing a favorable backdrop for LVS's revitalized competitive approach.

Operational Details and Financial Health
Beyond gaming, LVS's integrated resort model drives diversified revenue streams. Room revenues increased by $60 million in Q3 2025, with both Macao and MBS benefiting from higher ADR and increased available rooms post-renovations. Mall revenues also grew by $10 million, reflecting increased base and overage rents.

Operating expenses rose by $434 million in Q3 2025, primarily due to higher casino expenses (driven by increased gaming taxes, especially in Singapore where premium play tax rates rose from 8% to 12%), increased provision for credit losses, and higher development expenses. The company also recorded a $68 million loss on disposal or impairment of assets, including a $51 million charge related to ceasing digital gaming activities and $9 million from discontinuing the New York casino license pursuit.

LVS maintains a robust financial position with $3.35 billion in unrestricted cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025, and substantial available borrowing capacity across its revolving credit facilities. The company is in compliance with all debt covenants, with leverage ratios well below maximums. Capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $894 million, reflecting ongoing investments in Macao and MBS renovations and expansion.

Competitive Landscape and Strategic Positioning

LVS operates in a highly competitive global gaming and integrated resort market, with key rivals including MGM Resorts International (MGM), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Caesars Entertainment (CZR), and Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO).

In Macao, LVS's competitive strategy has evolved. While historically relying on its "strongest assets," management recognized the need for a more aggressive customer reinvestment approach to counter intense competition. This strategic shift, coupled with the completion of The Londoner Macao's extensive renovations, positions LVS to regain market share. LVS's scale and diverse offerings, including its two arenas (The Venetian Arena and The Londoner Arena), provide a significant advantage in attracting a broad spectrum of customers, from premium mass to base mass, and hosting major events like the NBA China Games. This contrasts with more niche luxury players like Wynn, or gaming-focused operators like Melco, by offering a more comprehensive ecosystem.

In Singapore, LVS enjoys a strategic duopoly, where Marina Bay Sands stands as a singular, iconic asset. Its "superb product" and the desirability of Singapore as a destination give LVS an unparalleled competitive edge. The ongoing $8 billion MBS Expansion Project (IR2) will further solidify this dominance, adding a new hotel tower, premium gaming areas, and a 15,000-seat live entertainment arena, increasing MBS's total approved gaming area to 17,000 square meters. This massive investment in a supply-constrained, high-value market reinforces LVS's leadership and is expected to generate substantial returns.

LVS's technological differentiation in baccarat, driven by smart tables and side bets, is a critical competitive advantage. This innovation, which is being rolled out in Macao, allows LVS to capture higher theoretical hold percentages, directly impacting profitability. While competitors may eventually adopt similar strategies, LVS's early adoption and continuous innovation in this area provide a measurable lead in optimizing gaming revenue.

Indirect competitors, such as online gambling platforms and alternative leisure options, pose a broader industry challenge. LVS's decision to cease pursuit of a New York casino license, citing concerns about the impact of potential online gaming legalization on return on investment, highlights its prudent approach to capital deployment in the face of evolving digital threats. This contrasts with competitors like Caesars, who have heavily invested in omnichannel gaming. LVS's focus remains on creating unparalleled in-person integrated resort experiences that cannot be replicated digitally.

Outlook and Capital Allocation

LVS's outlook is robust, underpinned by strong guidance and a clear capital allocation strategy. Management anticipates Macao's GGR to exceed $30 billion in 2025, with LVS expecting "additional share gains and EBITDA growth" in Q4 2025. The Londoner Macao is projected to reach over $1 billion in annual EBITDA, contributing to a short-term goal of a $2.7 billion run rate for Macao operations. In Singapore, MBS is set to "easily exceed" $2.5 billion in annual EBITDA for 2025, with further growth expected as the $8 billion IR2 expansion progresses towards its anticipated January 2031 opening.

The company's commitment to shareholder returns is evident. The Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per common share for Q4 2025 and approved a 20% increase for the 2026 calendar year, raising the annual dividend to $1.20 per share. Furthermore, the share repurchase program was expanded to $2 billion and extended to November 3, 2027, demonstrating confidence in the company's intrinsic value. LVS has also actively increased its ownership in Sands China Ltd. (SCL) to approximately 74.76% as of October 10, 2025, reflecting strong conviction in the Macao subsidiary's future.

Key risks include the intense competitive environment in Macao, which necessitates continuous strategic adaptation. The ongoing litigation with Asian American Entertainment Corporation, Limited (AAEC) in Macao, while currently dismissed in LVS's favor at the Second Instance Court, presents an unresolved legal contingency. The potential for online gaming legalization in new markets, as seen with the New York decision, remains a factor in future development considerations. However, LVS's disciplined approach to capital allocation, focusing on high-return, large-scale integrated resorts in established markets, mitigates these risks.

Conclusion

Las Vegas Sands Corp. stands as a compelling investment proposition, driven by its strategic dominance in the high-growth Asian integrated resort markets of Singapore and Macao. The company's narrative is one of strategic foresight, significant capital investment in world-class assets, and a relentless pursuit of operational excellence. The unprecedented performance of Marina Bay Sands, fueled by its superb product and innovative gaming technology, serves as a powerful testament to LVS's ability to generate exceptional returns.

In Macao, LVS is actively reasserting its market leadership through adaptive competitive strategies and the full realization of its Londoner Macao investment. The company's commitment to shareholder returns, evidenced by increased dividends and robust share repurchases, underscores a balanced approach to capital allocation. While competitive pressures and evolving market dynamics, such as the rise of online gaming, present ongoing challenges, LVS's foundational strengths—its iconic brand, unparalleled scale, regulatory licenses, and technological leadership in gaming—position it for sustained long-term growth and profitability. The future of LVS is firmly rooted in its Asian empire, where its strategic vision continues to unlock significant value for investors.