Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• The OBBBA Transformation: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed in July 2025, creates a multi-year revenue catalyst for Maximus's U.S. Services segment by mandating twice-yearly Medicaid eligibility redeterminations and work requirements for 21 million enrollees across 41 states. This policy shift could transform the segment from a post-pandemic headwind into a high-single-digit or low-double-digit growth engine, leveraging Maximus's position as the largest conflict-free Medicaid enrollment broker serving 23 states.

• Technology-Driven Moat Expansion: Maximus is evolving from a traditional BPO provider into a tech-enabled platform company, with 30+ AI deployments across its enterprise, proprietary Total Experience Management (TXM) platform, and CMMC Level 2 cybersecurity certification. This differentiation drove U.S. Federal Services segment operating margins to 15.3% in FY2025 and enabled recent wins including an $86 million Air Force cyber contract and $123 million NETL AI/ML development deal.

• Portfolio Quality Upgrade: The strategic divestiture of 11 international employment services businesses from 2023-2025 has reduced volatility and improved margin trajectory, with the Outside U.S. segment delivering 4.1% organic growth and 3.7% operating margins in FY2025—up from 1.2% the prior year. This disciplined capital reallocation demonstrates management's focus on higher-return, more stable government technology services.

• Capital Allocation Discipline: Maximus returned $447.5 million to shareholders through share repurchases in FY2025 while simultaneously deleveraging from 2.1x to 1.5x net debt/EBITDA. The company maintains ample liquidity with $750 million available on its revolver and projects $450-500 million in free cash flow for FY2026, providing flexibility for organic investment and strategic acquisitions.

• Execution Risks to Monitor: The investment thesis hinges on successful OBBBA implementation by state clients, effective deployment of AI tools without bias or error, and management of concentrated government exposure (56% of revenue from federal agencies). The Q3 FY2023 cybersecurity incident serves as a reminder that operational resilience remains critical when handling sensitive citizen data.

Setting the Scene: The Government Services Platform

Maximus, founded in Virginia in 1975 and celebrating its 50th anniversary in 2025, operates as a leading provider of tech-enabled services to government agencies across the U.S., U.K., Canada, and the Middle East. The company makes money by improving the delivery of public services—managing contact centers for Medicare and ACA marketplaces, conducting medical disability examinations for veterans, processing Medicaid eligibility determinations, and providing cybersecurity and IT modernization services to federal defense agencies. This essential services model generates recurring revenue streams tied to non-discretionary government spending, with contractual relationships so stable that only 1.5% of revenue was affected by cancellations in FY2025.

The industry structure favors incumbents with proven track records. Government agencies face stringent regulatory compliance requirements, multi-year sales cycles, and past performance scoring systems that create high barriers to entry. Maximus has built its moat through decades of experience translating policy changes into operational models, dating back to its early 1990s work supporting states with TANF federal regulations. This institutional knowledge becomes more valuable as programs grow more complex, particularly in healthcare where the company serves as the largest Medicaid managed care enrollment broker across approximately 23 states, handling roughly 60% of national Medicaid individuals.

The competitive landscape includes larger, better-resourced players like Conduent (CNDT), Cognizant (CTSH), DXC Technology (DXC), and EXL Service Holdings (EXLS), plus IT giants Accenture (ACN) and IBM (IBM). Many competitors are international in scope and possess greater financial resources, name recognition, and technical staff. However, Maximus differentiates through its conflict-free status in Medicaid and SNAP programs—managed care plans are prohibited from performing eligibility verifications, positioning Maximus as an independent, trusted partner. Scale matters profoundly in this market; the company's established presence and invested infrastructure that can be modified incrementally rather than replaced creates a competitive barrier that smaller rivals cannot easily replicate.

Technology, Products, and Strategic Differentiation

Maximus's core technology advantage lies in its proprietary Total Experience Management (TXM) platform, a FedRAMP -authorized, modular, scalable, cloud-based solution infused with AI capabilities. TXM enables federal agencies to deliver smarter, citizen-centric services while replacing end-of-life on-premise systems. The $76 million Federal Reserve System contract for technology-enabled contact center services demonstrates TXM's value proposition, as does its deployment for 1-800-MEDICARE operations. This platform creates switching costs because migrating from TXM would require agencies to rebuild their citizen service infrastructure and retrain staff on less sophisticated alternatives.

The company has deployed AI and machine learning solutions that deliver measurable productivity gains. The proprietary AI-powered records processing system for VA Medical Disability Examination contracts reduced manual case preparation time while enabling greater volumes following the PACT Act. Similarly, AI implementation on the federal No Surprises Act contract streamlined dispute resolution, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs. These aren't pilot projects; they're operational at scale across 30 AI-related deployments ranging from small pilots to large enterprise implementations for IT service management, HR help desk support, and knowledge management. Full deployments expected in FY2026 should drive further margin expansion through automation of routine tasks and improved staff productivity.

Cybersecurity capabilities have become a critical differentiator, particularly in defense markets. Maximus achieved Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (CMMC) Level 2 in 2025, validating its enhanced cybersecurity posture as a defense contractor and positioning it to compete effectively across the federal government. This certification directly enabled the $77 million U.S. Air Force advanced cybersecurity services contract in July 2025 and the subsequent $86 million Joint Cyber Command and Control Readiness contract in November 2025. In an era of persistent cybersecurity threats—exemplified by the material Q3 FY2023 incident involving a zero-day vulnerability—demonstrated security excellence becomes a prerequisite for winning sensitive national security work.

The company's first Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with the Department of War signals a strategic shift toward retaining intellectual property through government collaboration. This supports rapid prototyping and modernization efforts while creating proprietary assets that competitors cannot easily replicate. Combined with Maximus Ventures' inaugural investment in human-in-the-loop AI capabilities for clinical assessments, these initiatives build a technology moat that extends beyond service delivery into owned IP.

Financial Performance & Segment Dynamics: Evidence of Strategy

FY2025 results validate the technology-enabled transformation thesis. Consolidated revenue reached $5.43 billion with 3.9% organic growth, while adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 12.9% from 11.6% the prior year. Adjusted EPS grew 20% to $7.36, driven by operational leverage and $447.5 million in share repurchases. These improvements occurred while the company absorbed $16 million in severance costs during Q4 as part of deliberate cost management actions expected to lift FY2026 margins further.

The U.S. Federal Services segment exemplifies successful technology deployment. Revenue grew 12.1% organically to $3.07 billion, with operating margins reaching 15.3%—up from prior levels due to technology initiatives that increased staff productivity and reduced penalty incidence. Medical assessment revenue benefited from PACT Act-driven volume increases, while FEMA support provided additional upside. Management anticipates FY2026 margins of 15.5-16%, reflecting continued automation benefits and stable volumes. The segment's performance-based contract mix, with 54.4% of total company revenue tied to measurable outcomes, creates alignment with government missions and supports pricing power.

The U.S. Services segment shows the post-pandemic normalization transition. Revenue declined 7.7% organically to $1.76 billion as Medicaid redetermination volumes returned to steady state following the FY2024 unwinding exercise. Operating margins compressed to 9.7% from elevated pandemic levels, with Q4 impacted by severance costs. However, this segment is positioned for the OBBBA opportunity. The Act requires twice-yearly eligibility determinations for Medicaid expansion populations and codifies work requirements starting in early 2027. Maximus's 30 years of experience with similar TANF and SNAP requirements makes it the logical conflict-free partner for states facing compliance deadlines. Management estimates this could move segment growth from mid-single-digit to high-single-digit or low-double-digit range over time, with SNAP payment accuracy requirements creating additional technology-led solution demand.

The Outside the U.S. segment demonstrates the benefits of portfolio pruning. Revenue of $599.9 million declined due to prior divestitures, but organic growth turned positive at 4.1% and operating margins improved to 3.7% from 1.2% the prior year. The Q1 FY2025 divestiture of Australian and South Korean employment services businesses reduced volatility while flagship UK contracts like Functional Assessment Services drove profitable growth. Management targets 3-5% margins in FY2026, showing steady improvement toward the 3-7% target range.

Capital allocation reflects disciplined financial management. The company invested $60.3 million in capital expenditures, down from $129.1 million as major technology investments in federal medical disability examination contracts were largely completed. This frees cash for shareholder returns and debt reduction. Net leverage fell from 2.1x at June 30, 2025 to 1.5x at September 30, 2025, after expedited debt paydown from improved collections. A 100 basis point increase in SOFR would raise annual interest expense by only $7 million, showing limited rate sensitivity.

The company generated $366 million in free cash flow in FY2025 and guides to $450-500 million in FY2026, implying a 7.6-8.5% free cash flow yield on the current enterprise value. This cash generation funds both the dividend and growth investments without straining the balance sheet.

Outlook, Guidance, and Execution Risk

Management's FY2026 guidance reveals a conservative baseline with meaningful upside optionality. Revenue guidance of $5.225-5.425 billion implies a 2% year-over-year decline at the midpoint, but this includes a 3% headwind from non-recurring excess volumes in FY2025 and seasonal natural disaster support that is inherently difficult to forecast. The 1% organic growth offset suggests management is deliberately not assuming any OBBBA revenue benefit in its base case, making guidance beatable if states move quickly on implementation.

Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of 13.7% exceeds the company's 10-13% target range, driven by continued technology deployment and cost management. The $8.10 midpoint for adjusted EPS represents 10% growth over FY2025, while free cash flow guidance of $450-500 million implies 30% year-over-year growth. Management's commentary that "some of the risks we had contemplated...such as possible budget constraints from customers, are not believed to be as large a threat" suggests improving visibility.

The OBBBA timeline creates a clear catalyst path. Medicaid work requirements begin in early 2027, with states needing to implement systems and processes in FY2026. Maximus is actively engaging state customers, leveraging its conflict-free status and existing infrastructure. The SNAP payment accuracy provisions, which could cost states hundreds of millions in lost federal funding if error rates exceed thresholds, create urgency for technology-led solutions. Management estimates Maximus can help address about 90% of SNAP error causes, positioning the company as an essential partner rather than a discretionary vendor.

Execution risks center on three areas. First, AI deployment must balance automation benefits against accuracy and bias risks in eligibility determinations. Second, OBBBA implementation depends on state budget priorities and political will, creating timing uncertainty. Third, the company must maintain cybersecurity excellence after the FY2023 incident, as any breach of citizen data could damage its conflict-free reputation and result in contract loss.

Risks and Asymmetries: What Could Break the Thesis

OBBBA Implementation Risk: While the policy opportunity is substantial, states may delay implementation, request waivers, or implement work requirements through internal systems rather than outsourcing. The 21 million affected Medicaid enrollees represent a massive addressable market, but conversion to revenue requires active state procurement. Management's guidance excludes OBBBA benefits, providing downside protection but also indicating uncertainty. If implementation lags, the U.S. Services segment could remain a low-growth drag rather than a growth driver.

AI Operational Risk: Maximus's 30+ AI deployments create exposure to algorithmic bias, erroneous eligibility decisions, and regulatory scrutiny. The company acknowledges that AI may produce incomplete or misleading results and that employee misuse could occur. In government programs affecting vulnerable populations, even small error rates can trigger political backlash and contract termination. The technology initiatives driving margin expansion could become liabilities if not managed with extreme care.

Government Concentration: With 56% of revenue from federal agencies and additional material exposure to state Medicaid programs, Maximus faces funding cycle risks. A future government shutdown or budget sequestration could delay payments or contract awards. While management notes that "nearly all of our programs were deemed essential services" during the recent shutdown, the concentration creates earnings volatility that diversified commercial peers avoid.

Cybersecurity Threats: The Q3 FY2023 material cybersecurity incident, which led to class action lawsuits, demonstrates the existential risk of handling sensitive citizen data. Government clients have zero tolerance for security breaches, and competitors with stronger cybersecurity track records could displace Maximus despite its conflict-free status. The CMMC Level 2 certification helps, but persistent threats require continuous investment.

Competitive Pressure: Larger competitors like Cognizant and Accenture possess greater financial resources and technical staff. They could initiate severe price cuts to gain market share in Medicaid enrollment or SNAP administration, pressuring Maximus's margins. The company's scale advantage is defensible but not impenetrable, particularly as AI lowers barriers to entry for new entrants with automated solutions.

Upside Asymmetry: If OBBBA implementation accelerates faster than expected, Maximus could see a step-function increase in U.S. Services revenue growth from the current mid-single-digit baseline to low-double-digits. The technology platform's scalability means incremental revenue would flow through at high margins, potentially driving EPS well above the $8.10 guidance midpoint. Additionally, the defense cybersecurity business could scale rapidly if the Air Force contracts lead to broader Department of Defense adoption.

Valuation Context: Positioning for Quality

At $83.35 per share, Maximus trades at 15.1x trailing earnings and 9.25x EV/EBITDA, with an enterprise value of $5.92 billion. The valuation appears reasonable for a company delivering 20% EPS growth with expanding margins and a 1.42% dividend yield backed by a 22% payout ratio. The price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 12.8x compares favorably to the broader market, particularly given the essential nature of government services revenue.

Peer comparisons highlight Maximus's quality positioning. Conduent (CNDT) trades at a distressed 0.31x EV/revenue with negative margins, reflecting its struggles with revenue decline and operational inefficiencies. Cognizant (CTSH) commands premium multiples (18.7x P/E, 10.1x EV/EBITDA) but operates a broader commercial IT services model with different risk/reward characteristics. DXC Technology (DXC) trades at just 2.8x EV/EBITDA but faces revenue decline and margin pressure. EXL Service (EXLS) trades at 27.1x P/E with higher growth but lacks Maximus's government scale and stability.

Maximus's balance sheet strength supports valuation. Net debt of 0.86x equity and 1.5x EBITDA provides flexibility for acquisitions or further buybacks. The company generated $366 million in free cash flow in FY2025 and guides to $450-500 million in FY2026, implying a 7.6-8.5% free cash flow yield on the current enterprise value. This cash generation funds both the dividend and growth investments without straining the balance sheet.

The key valuation question is whether the market is fully pricing the OBBBA opportunity. With guidance excluding any OBBBA benefit and the stock trading at a modest premium to historical government services multiples, there appears to be upside if the policy translates to contract wins. The technology transformation, evidenced by margin expansion and high-value contract wins, justifies a higher multiple than traditional BPO peers but remains discounted to pure-play IT services companies.

Conclusion: A Defensive Growth Story at an Inflection Point

Maximus stands at the intersection of two powerful trends: policy-mandated growth in healthcare eligibility administration and technology-driven margin expansion in federal services. The OBBBA creates a tangible, multi-year revenue catalyst that leverages the company's conflict-free positioning and decades of program expertise. Simultaneously, the successful deployment of AI and cybersecurity capabilities is transforming the business model from labor-intensive BPO to higher-margin, platform-enabled services.

The strategic portfolio reshaping has improved earnings quality by divesting volatile international employment businesses and focusing on essential government functions. This discipline, combined with strong capital allocation through buybacks and deleveraging, demonstrates management's commitment to shareholder returns. The 20% EPS growth in FY2025 and 10% guided growth for FY2026, with potential upside from OBBBA, offers a compelling combination of defensiveness and growth.

The investment thesis's durability depends on execution. Successful navigation of AI deployment risks, timely OBBBA implementation by states, and maintenance of cybersecurity excellence will determine whether Maximus achieves the high-single-digit or low-double-digit growth that management suggests is possible. The concentrated government exposure cuts both ways—providing revenue stability but creating vulnerability to policy shifts.

For investors, the key variables to monitor are state procurement activity related to OBBBA in early 2026, margin progression in the U.S. Federal segment as technology initiatives scale, and any signs of competitive pressure in core Medicaid enrollment markets. If Maximus executes on its technology roadmap while capturing the OBBBA opportunity, the current valuation offers attractive risk-adjusted returns for a business with essential service characteristics and improving economics.