Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Nova Minerals Limited is transitioning from an exploration-stage company to a dual-commodity developer, focusing on its flagship Estelle Gold and Critical Minerals Project in Alaska.
• The company boasts a significant S-K 1300 compliant gold resource of 5.17 million ounces (4.41 Moz attributable to Nova) across four deposits, with ongoing drilling aimed at expanding and upgrading these resources.
• A pivotal strategic shift involves the development of high-grade antimony resources, a critical mineral with no current U.S. domestic supply, positioning Nova to potentially secure a vital supply chain with prospective U.S. Department of Defense grants.
• Recent financial strengthening, including becoming debt-free after the Nebari loan conversion and a successful July 2025 public offering raising over US$12 million, provides capital to advance its ambitious development plans.
• Key technological differentiators, such as X-Ray ore sorting and an on-site sample preparation facility, are designed to enhance operational efficiency, reduce costs, and accelerate project timelines, underpinning the company's competitive advantage.

A New Era for Alaskan Resources

Nova Minerals Limited stands at a pivotal juncture, evolving from a dedicated explorer to a prospective dual-commodity producer in Alaska's highly prospective Tintina Gold Belt. The company's core business revolves around the Estelle Gold and Critical Minerals Project, an extensive 127,102-acre land package that is rapidly advancing towards development. Nova's overarching strategy is clear: to become a world-class, tier-one global gold producer while simultaneously establishing a U.S. domestic supply chain for the strategic mineral antimony. This dual focus leverages the project's inherent geological advantages and aligns with broader geopolitical and economic trends favoring secure domestic mineral supplies.

The Estelle Project's strategic location, approximately 150km northwest of Anchorage, benefits from established infrastructure, including a fully winterized 80-person camp and a 4,000-foot airstrip, enabling year-round operations. This foundational strength, coupled with a leadership team experienced in bringing mines into production, positions Nova Minerals to capitalize on its significant resource base. The company's history, marked by its 2017 joint venture for Estelle and subsequent aggressive exploration, has culminated in a substantial gold resource and promising antimony discoveries, setting the stage for its ambitious development plans.

Technological Edge and Operational Efficiency

Nova Minerals is not merely an explorer; it is an innovator, deploying advanced technologies to enhance the efficiency and economics of its Estelle Project. A key differentiator is the utilization of Particle Density X-Ray Ore Sorting. This technology has demonstrated significant potential for "less processing and increased mine production to successfully separate the gold-bearing veins," implying a reduction in waste material processed and a higher-grade feed to the mill. Such an advantage can lead to lower operational costs and improved overall project economics, directly contributing to a stronger competitive position.

Further bolstering its operational efficiency, Nova Minerals has established an on-site independent sample preparation facility. This facility, capable of processing up to 7,500 samples per month, provides "significant cost savings" by reducing the weight of samples shipped to external laboratories for analysis. Critically, it also "improves the assay result turnaround time," which is invaluable in accelerating exploration programs and decision-making processes. These technological and logistical innovations contribute directly to a lower discovery cost per ounce, a key competitive advantage in the capital-intensive mining industry. The company is also investigating alternative technology options, such as SAG (Semi Autogenous Grinding) mills, coarse flotation using Hydrofloat technology, and gravity recovery using a Reflux Classifier, to further optimize its process flowsheet.

The Estelle Project: A Foundation of Growth

The Estelle Project is the cornerstone of Nova Minerals' investment thesis, hosting an S-K 1300 compliant gold mineral resource estimate of 5.17 million ounces (Moz) of gold, with 4.41 Moz attributable to Nova's 85% interest. This resource is distributed across four key deposits: Korbel Main, RPM North, RPM South, and Cathedral. The deposits are characterized by "thick ore zones from surface and a low strip ratio, amendable to large scale bulk mining using conventional truck and shovel methods," indicating favorable mining conditions.

The RPM North deposit, for instance, includes a high-grade Measured and Indicated core measuring 100m long x 50m wide x 300m deep, with significant potential for further extension. The Korbel Main deposit extends over 2.5km of strike and up to 500m depth, remaining open for expansion. Recent drilling in 2023 and 2024, totaling approximately 7,400m, focused on the RPM area to further prove up and expand the gold resource, with these results yet to be included in an updated mineral resource estimate, suggesting potential for future resource upside.

Strategic Minerals: Antimony's Critical Role

Beyond gold, the Estelle Project holds significant strategic importance due to its high-grade antimony discoveries. Antimony is a critical mineral, essential for "all manner of civil and defense applications" due to its heat and flame resistance, anti-corrosion properties, and ability to harden and strengthen materials. The U.S. currently lacks a domestic source or supply chain for antimony, a vulnerability exacerbated by China's recent ban on all antimony exports to the U.S. This geopolitical dynamic has driven antimony prices up over 250% in the past 12 months, with continued volatility expected.

Nova Minerals has identified high-grade stibnite, the primary ore source for antimony, coincident with gold at six prospects across the property, notably at Stibium and Styx. At Stibium, 12 rock samples graded greater than 30% Sb, with a high of 60.50% Sb, defining an 800m long by 400m wide antimony-gold rich zone. The company commenced a 3,000m drill program at Stibium in June 2025, specifically targeting the establishment of a maiden mineral resource estimate for antimony. Nova is actively pursuing grants from the U.S. Department of Defense to fast-track antimony production, aiming to secure a domestic supply chain for this vital mineral. An independent report by RFC Ambrian in February 2025 identified Estelle as one of only nine projects globally, and one of only two in the U.S., with the potential for near-term antimony production.

Financial Trajectory and Capital Strength

Nova Minerals has demonstrated a strengthening financial position, crucial for funding its transition to production. For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, the company reported a net loss of A11.10 million, a significant reduction from the A16.39 million loss in fiscal year 2024. This improvement was "principally due to the A6,934,776 gain on sale from our sale of the Snow Lake Resources Ltd. (SNOW) Shares, and a reversal of share based payments of A1,261,489 as the directors reassessed the value of the options." The sale of its 6.60 million shares in Snow Lake Resources Ltd. on December 31, 2024, generated gross proceeds of approximately US$6.73 million (A$10.85 million).

Furthermore, the company became debt-free in January 2025 following the conversion of the full outstanding balance of the US$5.42 million Nebari convertible loan into 35.01 million ordinary shares. This eliminated a significant financial liability and associated finance costs, which decreased by 49% to A357,958 in FY2025 from A695,312 in FY2024.

A successful public offering in July 2025 further bolstered liquidity, raising gross proceeds of US$12.10 million. As of June 30, 2025, Nova Minerals held cash and cash equivalents of A9.08 million, up from A3.15 million in FY2024, and reported working capital of A6.69 million. Management anticipates that current cash, combined with the recent capital raise, will be sufficient to fund operations for more than 12 months. However, substantial additional funds will be required for long-term development, with significant revenue generation not expected until at least 2026.

Competitive Landscape: Carving a Niche

The mining industry is intensely competitive, with established giants like Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) and Newmont Corporation (NEM) dominating the gold sector, and Albemarle Corporation (ALB) leading in lithium. These competitors possess "greater financial and technical resources" and extensive global operations. Nova Minerals, while a smaller player, distinguishes itself through a focused strategy and specific competitive advantages.

Nova's "discovery of a district scale gold and critical minerals project in a safe jurisdiction with a long history of mining on Alaska State lands" at a "very low cost of discovery per ounce" highlights its efficiency in resource identification. Its established infrastructure for year-round operation and strong relationships with Alaskan communities and governments provide a localized operational advantage. The company's agility in project development, coupled with its dual-commodity focus on gold and critical antimony, offers a diversified value proposition that larger, more gold-centric miners like Barrick and Newmont may lack. While NVAWW's financial performance, characterized by a current P/E ratio of -11.31 and a P/B ratio of 1.04, reflects its exploration stage, it contrasts with the established profitability of its larger peers (e.g., NEM's P/E of 15.01 and GOLD's P/E of 28.16). However, Nova's strategic focus on antimony, a market under severe supply stress, offers a unique growth avenue. The company's technological adoption, such as X-Ray ore sorting, aims to enhance efficiency and potentially achieve better margins compared to traditional methods, though its overall R&D investment and market share remain smaller than industry leaders.

Outlook and Development Pathway

Nova Minerals has outlined a clear, albeit ambitious, timeline for its Estelle Project. The company expects to complete its first gold pour in 2027, a significant milestone marking its transition to a producer. A formal Feasibility Study (FS) for its gold assets is anticipated to be completed in 2026, which will be crucial for de-risking the project and securing further financing. The 15,000m drill program commenced in June 2025 is targeting RPM, Stibium, and Korbel, with the aim of upgrading gold resources and establishing a maiden mineral resource estimate for antimony.

Management is exploring three development options: a high-grade RPM starter mine for near-term cash flow, an expanded project encompassing Korbel and RPM for long-term gold and critical minerals production, and a stand-alone antimony-gold starter mine at Stibium, contingent on U.S. Department of Defense grants. The latter, if successful, could provide early cash flow and address a critical national security need. Ongoing studies include optimizing plant size, evaluating heap leaching for lower-grade material, and assessing extraction options for silver, copper, and other critical minerals, all aimed at maximizing project value and extending mine life for decades.

Key Risks and Mitigations

Investing in Nova Minerals carries inherent risks typical of an exploration and development-stage mining company. The absence of proven mineral reserves at Estelle means there is "no assurance that we can establish the existence of any mineral reserve on our property in commercially exploitable quantities," which could impact future revenues. The development of a mine is "highly speculative in nature, may be unsuccessful and may never result in the development of an operating mine." Commodity price volatility for gold and antimony, influenced by global economic and political trends, poses a significant risk to profitability.

The reliance on U.S. Department of Defense grants for the antimony-gold starter mine is a specific risk, as "failure to obtain such grants could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations." Furthermore, increasing attention to ESG matters and conservation measures may lead to "increased permitting requirements and delays." Nova Minerals mitigates some of these risks by actively managing cash forecasts and retaining the "ability to scale back its exploration activities to match its funds available." The company also maintains insurance against certain mining hazards and employs a cybersecurity risk management program.

Conclusion

Nova Minerals Limited is strategically positioned to capitalize on the robust demand for both precious and critical minerals, driven by its extensive Estelle Project in Alaska. The company's dual focus on becoming a tier-one gold producer and a key domestic supplier of antimony presents a compelling investment narrative. With a substantial gold resource, promising antimony discoveries, and a strengthened financial position following recent capital raises and debt elimination, Nova is actively advancing its projects towards production. The integration of innovative technologies and a clear development roadmap underscore its potential to create long-term shareholder value. While the inherent risks of mineral exploration and commodity price volatility remain, Nova's strategic initiatives, experienced leadership, and unique competitive advantages in a geopolitically significant region suggest a company on the cusp of a transformative growth phase.