Amazon and Microsoft have publicly endorsed the GAIN AI Act, a new U.S. export‑control bill that would require advanced AI chipmakers to satisfy domestic orders before shipping to foreign customers, with a particular focus on China. The legislation, introduced in 2025, also establishes a 15‑day window for U.S. buyers to decide on orders and creates a “trusted United States persons” exemption that could allow certain U.S. entities to export chips under specific conditions.
The bill’s core provision—prioritizing U.S. customers—directly threatens Nvidia’s largest revenue source. In fiscal 2025, China accounted for $17.11 billion, or 13.11 % of Nvidia’s total revenue. Recent reports indicate that export controls have already driven Nvidia’s market share in China to zero, a collapse from an estimated 95 % share in 2024. Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, has warned that the controls could backfire by accelerating China’s domestic chip development and eroding U.S. leadership in AI hardware.
Nvidia’s opposition to the GAIN AI Act is rooted in concerns that the bill will curtail its ability to compete globally, reduce export volumes, and increase costs for U.S. customers who rely on high‑performance GPUs for cloud and data‑center workloads. The company has already incurred an estimated $8 billion sales impact in a single quarter and a $5.5 billion charge related to its H20 chip exports.
The announcement triggered a measurable market reaction: Nvidia’s shares fell about 1.3 % in pre‑market trading on Friday, November 14, reflecting investor concern that the new restrictions could materially reduce the company’s revenue growth and margin profile.
From a strategic perspective, the GAIN AI Act forces Nvidia to reassess its supply‑chain and market‑entry strategies. With China effectively closed, the company may need to accelerate sales to other emerging markets, invest in domestic manufacturing capacity, or develop new product lines that comply with U.S. export rules. The bill also signals a broader U.S. policy shift aimed at limiting China’s access to cutting‑edge AI technology, potentially reshaping the global AI hardware landscape and accelerating China’s push for indigenous chip development.
In summary, Amazon and Microsoft’s support for the GAIN AI Act represents a significant regulatory hurdle for Nvidia, with immediate implications for its China revenue, global sales strategy, and the broader AI chip market. The legislation underscores the growing tension between U.S. national‑security priorities and the commercial interests of leading technology firms.
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