Novartis has lifted its currency‑adjusted sales growth outlook to 5‑6% annually through 2030, a move that reflects the company’s confidence in the long‑term performance of its oncology portfolio. The guidance upgrade follows a revision of peak sales targets for two key assets: Kisqali’s peak sales are now projected at more than $10 billion, up from the previous $8 billion estimate, while Scemblix is now expected to reach over $4 billion, an increase from the earlier $3 billion target.
The company’s first‑nine‑months‑of‑2025 core operating income margin reached 41.2%, surpassing the 40%+ margin target that it had set for 2024 and achieved two years ahead of schedule. This margin expansion is driven by strong pricing power in the oncology segment, disciplined cost management, and a favorable product mix that offsets generic erosion in legacy drugs such as Entresto and Tasigna. In Q3 2025, the margin held steady at 39.3% despite rising generic competition, while Q3 2024 margin was 40.1%, indicating a slight compression but still above the company’s long‑term goal.
Management highlighted that the upgraded Kisqali guidance is based on robust early‑breast‑cancer data from the United States and international markets, positioning the CDK4/6 inhibitor as the largest brand in Novartis’ history. For Scemblix, the company cited strong uptake and enthusiasm from physicians and patients, which gave it confidence to raise the guidance. CEO Vas Narasimhan noted that “the momentum in these assets, combined with a deep pipeline of more than 30 potential high‑value medicines, underpins our confidence in sustaining growth beyond 2030.”
The Avidity Biosciences acquisition, completed for $12 billion, is a strategic pillar that expands Novartis’ pipeline in oncology and immunology. The company expects the deal to add new high‑margin opportunities and to help offset patent expirations on older blockbuster drugs. Analysts view the guidance raise as a signal that Novartis believes its portfolio can continue to generate multi‑billion‑dollar revenue streams while maintaining margins above 40% through 2029.
Headwinds remain in the form of generic erosion and pricing pressure in some therapeutic areas, but the company’s focus on high‑margin, innovative medicines and its investment in pipeline development position it to navigate these challenges. The updated guidance reflects management’s belief that demand for Kisqali and Scemblix will remain strong, and that the company’s broader strategy will sustain profitability and growth over the next five years.
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