Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) is an emerging pure-play Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) producer, strategically positioned to capitalize on the aviation industry's aggressive decarbonization targets with its modular, feedstock-agnostic HEFA technology.
• The company aims for substantial growth, projecting an annual neat SAF production output of 80 million gallons by the end of 2028, driven by its flagship New Rise Reno facility and planned expansions in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina.
• Despite recent revenue generation from renewable diesel sales and significant non-cash gains from warrant fair value adjustments, SAFX faces substantial liquidity challenges, including defaults on major loans and lease obligations, raising going concern doubts.
• Strategic partnerships, government incentives (like the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit), and ongoing efforts to secure additional financing are critical for overcoming current financial hurdles and realizing its ambitious operational roadmap.
• SAFX's competitive positioning is defined by its technological reliability and partnership-focused expansion, offering a specialized approach that differentiates it from larger, more diversified renewable fuel producers, though it currently lags in scale and consistent profitability.

The Dawn of Sustainable Aviation Fuel and SAFX's Mission

The global aviation industry is at a pivotal juncture, facing immense pressure to decarbonize its operations. With the transportation sector identified as a leading contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, and aviation alone accounting for 2.50% of global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2023, the shift towards sustainable alternatives is imperative. International bodies like the ICAO have set ambitious goals, including a long-term aspiration for net-zero carbon emissions from international aviation by 2050. The United States, through initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, is allocating $3.30 billion to scale SAF production, targeting 3 billion gallons per year by 2030 and 35 billion gallons by 2050, representing 100% of projected aviation fuel demand. The European Union's ReFuelEU Aviation rules further underscore this commitment, mandating SAF blend-in shares starting at 2% in 2025 and escalating to 70% by 2050.

XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX), which became a publicly traded company on Nasdaq on June 6, 2025, is at the forefront of this transition. The company's core mission is to produce clean-burning, sustainable biofuels, primarily Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), derived from waste- and residue-based feedstocks. SAFX aims to build a nationwide portfolio of SAF and renewable fuels production facilities, implementing a fully integrated business model from feedstock supply to marketing and sales. This strategic focus positions SAFX as one of the few publicly traded renewable fuels companies primarily dedicated to SAF in the U.S., distinguishing it from predominantly legacy crude oil refiners.

Technological Edge: Engineering the Future of Clean Flight

SAFX's operational strategy is underpinned by a differentiated technology stack designed for efficiency and adaptability. The company employs a two-stage production process that combines feedstock pretreatment with the established hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathway. The HEFA pathway is a proven technology, commercially available today, for refining vegetable oils, waste oils, or fats into SAF through hydroprocessing, a process that removes sulfur, oxygen, nitrogen, and metals from the feedstock.

A key benefit of this pretreatment process is that it renders SAFX's facilities "feedstock agnostic." This flexibility allows the company to utilize a variety of low carbon intensity feedstocks, including waste oils, agricultural residues, animal fats, distillers corn oil (DCO), and crude degummed soybean oil. This adaptability is crucial for de-risking the supply chain, especially in times of market volatility, and supports a longer catalyst life, leading to less frequent shutdowns for catalyst changeout. SAFX licenses proprietary hydrogenation technology from Axens North America, a leader in process and catalyst development. This technology enables versatile hydrotreatment, boosts yields, and facilitates longer catalyst life. The license agreement for the New Rise Reno facility involved a one-time fee of $1.05 million, with $200,000 paid to date.

The company's modular site design, exemplified by the New Rise Reno facility, further enhances its technological advantage. This design features four modules: feedstock receiving, pretreatment, hydrotreatment, and finished goods neat SAF offtake. Both feedstock receiving and finished goods offtake modules have direct access to rail and truck ports. This configuration increases operational efficiency by facilitating direct unloading of feedstock and direct loading of SAF, reducing the need for extensive storage and accelerating construction timelines. This modularity is intended to enable rapid and efficient replication for future expansions. For investors, this technological foundation translates into a potential competitive moat, offering operational efficiency, potential cost reductions, and a strong market position for high-compliance, low-carbon fuels.

Operational Footprint and Growth Trajectory

SAFX's operational strategy centers on its flagship New Rise Reno facility and an ambitious expansion pipeline. The New Rise Reno production facility, located in McCarran, Nevada, was converted to SAF production in October 2024 and commenced initial production of SAF and renewable naphtha in February 2025, with first deliveries starting in March 2025 under an existing Supply and Offtake Agreement with Phillips 66 (PSX). During the initial ramp-up phase, the facility operated at approximately 50% capacity for SAF. Due to variable operating performance during testing and ramp-up, management made the determination to temporarily produce and sell renewable diesel at approximately 2,000 barrels per day, which is about 20% below nameplate capacity, without additional modifications. The company expects to resume SAF production at nameplate capacity as early as the first quarter of 2026.

The company's growth trajectory includes plans to develop four projects for SAF production or associated infrastructure. An adjacent facility, New Rise Reno 2, is expected to have a nameplate production capacity of approximately 40 million gallons per year of neat SAF. Construction for New Rise Reno 2 is anticipated to begin in 2026, with SAF production commencing in 2028, at an estimated cost of $300 million. Additionally, SAFX owns dormant biodiesel plants in Fort Myers, Florida, and Wilson, North Carolina, which it intends to reconstruct for SAF, renewable fuels, or associated infrastructure. If both facilities are reconstructed for SAF production, it is expected to take approximately 36 months from construction commencement, with anticipated costs of $350 million per site. The total anticipated annual neat SAF production output from these projects is expected to reach 80 million gallons per year by the end of 2028.

SAFX is also pursuing a strategic international expansion, leveraging its modular facility design for capital-efficient, regionally tailored partnerships. On October 9, 2025, the company signed a binding term sheet with New Rise Australia Pty. Ltd. for an exclusive 15-year license to deploy XCF's designs in Australia, targeting three renewable fuel facilities. SAFX will hold a 12.5% non-dilutable equity interest in New Rise Australia and receive licensing fees. Furthermore, SAFX has engaged in strategic partnerships within the U.S., including a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Impact Jets, LLC to supply the private jet market with SAF, and a Letter of Intent with Posh Energy to deploy Flex-Fuel Gensets at New Rise Reno, converting byproducts into zero-carbon electricity and potentially unlocking new revenue streams and tax credits. The company also signed an exclusive, non-binding Indication of Intent to acquire a West Coast renewable fuel business, aiming to further vertical integration and enhance feedstock access, blending, and logistics infrastructure.

Financial Performance: A Glimpse of Emerging Revenue Amidst Investment

SAFX's financial performance reflects its early-stage growth and significant capital investment. For the three and six months ended June 30, 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of $6.58 million, entirely derived from renewable diesel products ($3.37 million) and renewable diesel environmental credits ($3.20 million) sold to Phillips 66. Notably, no revenue was recognized in 2023 or 2024, as the plant had not yet delivered sales. Gross sales of naphtha and synthetic blended components totaling $1.85 million and $2.49 million for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025, respectively, were capitalized as a reduction of plant costs, as they occurred during the construction phase.

Despite these emerging revenues, the company reported a gross loss of $1.24 million for both the three and six months ended June 30, 2025. Operating expenses have seen significant increases, with direct costs for New Rise Renewables rising by $1.68 million in 2024, primarily due to increased plant activity, including catalyst and plant operating costs. General and administrative expenses for New Rise Renewables also surged by $8.72 million in 2024, largely attributable to increased payroll and late fees on the Greater Nevada Credit Union (GNCU) loans. The company's net loss for New Rise Renewables was $18.38 million in 2024, compared to $4.99 million in 2023.

However, the consolidated financial statements for XCF Global, Inc. for the six months ended June 30, 2025, show a net income of $102.80 million. This positive net income is primarily driven by significant non-cash gains from the change in fair value of warrant liabilities ($206.17 million) and an unrealized gain on a derivative asset ($16.06 million), rather than operating profitability. The latest TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) financial ratios for SAFX reflect this dynamic, showing a Gross Profit Margin of -18.78%, an Operating Profit Margin of -514.88%, and an EBITDA Margin of -546.73%, while the Net Profit Margin stands at 1655.48% due to these non-operating fair value adjustments. The company's cash and cash equivalents were $405,575 as of June 30, 2025.

Liquidity and the Path Forward: Addressing Going Concern

SAFX faces significant liquidity challenges that raise substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern. As of December 31, 2024, XCF Global had a working capital shortage of $1.75 million, and New Rise Renewables, LLC reported a working capital shortage of $86.49 million. Management has explicitly stated that cash on hand will be inadequate to satisfy obligations over the next twelve months.

The company is in default on several key financial obligations. The Greater Nevada Credit Union (GNCU) loan, with an outstanding balance of $130.67 million as of August 5, 2025, was subject to an acceleration notice on August 6, 2025, due to missed payments. Although the acceleration notice was withdrawn on August 27, 2025, the underlying defaults and demand to cure remain in effect. Similarly, New Rise Reno is in default on its Ground Lease with Twain GL XXVIII, LLC, owing $23.72 million as of September 30, 2025, including $15.67 million in lease payments and $8.05 million in late fees and penalties. A forbearance agreement with Twain was secured on June 11, 2025, in exchange for 4.00 million shares of New XCF Common Stock, but the core issue of payment remains. Additionally, SAFX assumed $2.20 million in unsecured debt from the Fort Myers and Wilson acquisitions, with $1.70 million in principal and $500,000 in interest currently in default.

To mitigate these risks, SAFX is actively engaged in discussions with GNCU and Twain for potential forbearance or modified loan payment schedules. The company is also evaluating various financing alternatives, including refinancing options and alternative funding structures, to support the SAF production ramp-up and refinance existing obligations. Recent financing activities include a Convertible Note Purchase Agreement with EEME Energy SPV I LLC on July 29, 2025, for up to $7.50 million in convertible promissory notes, of which $6.00 million has been converted into common stock. On October 22, 2025, SAFX also entered into two promissory notes totaling $1.12 million in principal with institutional lenders. The ability to secure adequate additional funding and generate sufficient cash flow from operations is paramount for SAFX to meet its obligations and execute its long-term business plan.

Competitive Landscape: Carving a Niche in a Growing Market

SAFX operates in a competitive landscape that includes traditional fossil fuel refiners diversifying into renewables, technology-driven companies pioneering new SAF pathways, and production-focused companies licensing hydrotreating technology. The North American market alone features approximately 30 competitor production facilities, with only six currently operational for SAF. SAFX's project pipeline, including New Rise Reno 2 expected online in 2028, provides an early mover advantage over the majority of this competition.

Key competitive factors in the SAF market are price, production capacity, and location. As all neat SAF must meet ASTM D7566 standards, quality is less of a differentiator, though future competitive advantages may arise from new pathways offering lower Carbon Intensity (CI) scores. Competition for feedstock is also a critical success driver as demand for SAF and other renewable fuels grows.

Comparing SAFX to its direct competitors reveals distinct positioning:

• SAFX vs. Gevo, Inc. (GEVO): Gevo, a biofuels producer, emphasizes innovative conversion technologies for low-carbon fuels, with an expected annual output of 60 million gallons of liquid hydrocarbons. SAFX, with its focus on operational reliability and strategic partnerships, offers a more geographically diversified approach through its multiple planned sites, potentially allowing it to capture market share more effectively. SAFX's dedication to net-zero emissions and high-quality production could appeal more directly to environmentally conscious partners. While Gevo has been in the market longer, SAFX's recent commercial production start could lead to stronger cash flow generation from focused SAF production.
• SAFX vs. Neste (NESTE.HE): Neste is a global leader in renewable fuels, benefiting from established scale and global reach, with global SAF production expected to reach 1.50 million tons in 2025. SAFX, as a newer entrant, focuses on high-compliance facilities and a targeted approach to net-zero transitions via partnerships. While Neste's strategy emphasizes cost leadership through diversified feedstocks, SAFX's technological differentiation for emissions compliance could be a qualitative edge. SAFX currently lags Neste in operational scale, profitability, and efficiency due to its earlier growth stage.
• SAFX vs. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM): ADM, a large agricultural processor, is involved in biofuels, leveraging its extensive supply chain for cost advantages. SAFX's offerings are more specialized in SAF technology and emissions focus, potentially providing qualitatively greater performance in quality and compliance compared to ADM's broader biofuels approach. SAFX's targeted expansion and partnerships may offer better market positioning in aviation-specific segments, while ADM's scale provides cost efficiencies. SAFX likely leads ADM in technological innovation for SAF but lags in cost structure and overall financial health.

Indirect competitors include traditional fossil fuel providers and emerging alternatives like electric or hydrogen-based aviation technologies, which could pressure SAFX's pricing and profitability.

SAFX's competitive advantages, or "moats," include its proprietary HEFA pathway technology licensed from Axens, which offers feedstock flexibility, enhanced yields, and longer catalyst life. Its modular facility design allows for efficient replication and rapid expansion. Furthermore, its strategic partnerships, such as the Phillips 66 supply and offtake agreement, provide a reliable framework for feedstock supply and product distribution. These advantages are crucial for SAFX to differentiate itself and compete effectively in the rapidly evolving SAF market.

Conclusion

XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) stands as a compelling, albeit high-risk, investment opportunity at the nexus of aviation decarbonization and advanced biofuel technology. The company's strategic focus on Sustainable Aviation Fuel, underpinned by its feedstock-agnostic HEFA technology and modular facility design, positions it to capture a significant share of a rapidly expanding market driven by global mandates and industry commitments. Its ambitious growth plans, targeting 80 million gallons of neat SAF production by 2028 through a pipeline of new facilities and international partnerships, underscore its potential.

However, the path to realizing this potential is fraught with significant financial and operational challenges. The company's current liquidity constraints, recurring losses, and defaults on major debt and lease obligations present a substantial going concern risk. Successful resolution of these financial hurdles through refinancing, additional capital raises, and diligent operational execution at its New Rise Reno facility are paramount. For discerning investors, SAFX represents a high-conviction play on the future of sustainable aviation, where technological leadership and strategic adaptability will be key to transforming its current operational challenges into long-term shareholder value. The company's ability to leverage regulatory tailwinds and its differentiated technology to achieve consistent profitability will be the ultimate determinant of its success.