Upstart Holdings, Inc. reported third‑quarter 2025 results that included a $0.52 earnings per share, beating the consensus estimate of $0.42 by $0.10 or 23.8%. Revenue totaled $277 million, slightly below the $281.02 million consensus, a miss of about 1.4%. The company’s revenue grew 71% year‑over‑year from $162.1 million in Q3 2024, driven by a 80% jump in loan originations to $2.9 billion and a 12% contribution from new small‑loan, auto, and home‑loan products.
Upstart’s margin profile reflected a mix of gains and pressures. The contribution margin fell to 57% from 61% YoY, largely because the company’s higher‑margin AI‑powered loan origination services were offset by increased support costs. In contrast, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 26% from 1% in the prior year, a result of scale‑related cost efficiencies and a shift toward higher‑margin product mix.
Management guided for Q4 revenue of $288 million, below the $303.7 million consensus, and a full‑year 2025 revenue outlook of $1.035 billion, down from the $1.06 billion consensus. The lower guidance signals management’s caution about near‑term macroeconomic headwinds, while the company remains confident in maintaining profitability through disciplined cost management and continued AI platform adoption.
CEO Dave Girouard emphasized that the quarter’s performance “demonstrates the strength of our AI platform and the rapid growth of our loan origination volumes.” He noted that the platform’s ability to adapt to macro signals helped sustain credit quality, even as the company modestly reduced approvals and increased interest rates to manage risk.
Investors reacted negatively to the results, citing the revenue miss and the more conservative guidance as key concerns. The market’s response underscored the importance of forward‑looking revenue expectations for a company that has recently returned to profitability.
The results highlight a company that is scaling rapidly—loan originations grew 80% YoY—yet faces cash‑flow challenges, with operating cash flow at –$256 million and free cash flow at –$270 million. These headwinds suggest that while the business model is expanding, the company must continue to manage working‑capital requirements and invest in its AI platform to sustain long‑term growth.
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