Margin Repair Meets Geopolitical Resilience at Varex Imaging (NASDAQ:VREX) - VREX Stock Research Report

## Executive Summary / Key Takeaways - Varex Imaging is executing a strategic margin recovery through segment mix shift and operational improvements, delivering 230 basis points of gross margin expansion in FY2025 while the Industrial segment grew 10% and approaches one-third of total revenue, creating a more resilient earnings profile. - The indefinite suspension of China's MOFCOM investigations removes a major geopolitical overhang that had pressured the stock and triggered a $93.9 million goodwill impairment, allowing management to model China as stable and focus on broader growth initiatives. - The company's independent OEM supplier model, supported by a massive installed base of over 160,000 X-ray tubes and 170,000 detectors, generates predictable replacement revenue that competitors with captive supply chains cannot easily replicate. - Management's FY2026 outlook calls for sustained growth in both segments, with Industrial potentially reaching mid-30s as a percentage of sales and Medical ex-China expanding, though customer concentration remains a critical vulnerability with the top five customers accounting for 40% of revenue. - At $11.39 per share, VREX trades at 0.56x sales and 12x free cash flow, offering attractive valuation metrics relative to its technology moat and margin recovery trajectory, though execution risks on cargo system scaling and photon counting adoption remain pivotal. ## Setting the Scene: The Independent X-Ray Component Champion Varex Imaging Corporation, incorporated in 2016 and headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah, occupies a distinctive niche in the global imaging industry. Born from Varian Medical Systems (TICKER:SHL)'s spin-off in January 2017, the company emerged as an independent supplier of X-ray imaging components to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across medical and industrial markets. This independence is not merely a corporate structure choice; it represents a fundamental competitive advantage in an industry where most large players maintain captive component operations. The company generates revenue by selling X-ray tubes, flat panel detectors, photon counting detectors, high-voltage connectors, image-processing software, and complete systems to OEMs who integrate them into larger imaging platforms. Over 27,000 X-ray tubes and 20,000 detectors roll off production lines annually, feeding an installed base that includes more than 160,000 tubes and 170,000 detectors worldwide. This installed base drives a substantial replacement and service revenue stream, with CT X-ray tubes requiring replacement every two to six years globally, and as frequently as every 10-20 months in China's high-utilization markets. Varex operates two reportable segments that serve as natural hedges against each other's cyclicality. The Medical segment (70.2% of FY2025 revenue) supplies components for CT, mammography, oncology, and other diagnostic imaging. The Industrial segment (29.8% of revenue) provides security screening systems for cargo and baggage, plus nondestructive testing for aerospace, automotive, and electronics manufacturing. This dual-segment structure allows foundational technologies developed for medical applications to migrate into industrial uses, and vice versa, creating product development synergies that pure-play competitors cannot match. ## Business Model & Technology Differentiation: The Recurring Revenue Engine Varex's economic moat rests on three pillars: installed base scale, technology leadership, and manufacturing regionalization. The installed base advantage creates high switching costs and recurring revenue that stabilizes cash flows through OEM capital equipment cycles. When a hospital or imaging center purchases a CT scanner from Canon (TICKER:CAJ) or Philips, they commit to a maintenance ecosystem where Varex's components represent the standard of care. Replacing a failed X-ray tube with a non-OEM alternative risks voiding warranties and compromising diagnostic accuracy, creating powerful customer lock-in. Technology leadership manifests most clearly in the company's photon counting CT detector program. Unlike conventional energy-integrating detectors, photon counting technology enables precise material discrimination, improved workflow, and significantly reduced radiation dose. Varex has moved past the invention phase and is now in platform introduction with anchor OEM customers, targeting $150 million in revenue by 2029, with two-thirds expected from Medical and one-third from Industrial applications. The THOR detector, released for general availability, addresses high-speed industrial CT imaging for EV batteries and semiconductor inspection, applications where material discrimination provides tangible economic value by reducing waste and improving quality control. The company's investment in nanotube-based cold emitters {{EXPLANATION: nanotube-based cold emitters,These are next-generation X-ray sources that use carbon nanotubes to emit electrons at room temperature, offering advantages like smaller size, faster switching, and lower power consumption compared to traditional X-ray tubes. This technology could enable novel imaging applications and alter Varex's cost structure.}} represents a forward-looking bet on next-generation X-ray sources. These solid-state emitters promise smaller form factors, faster switching times, and lower power consumption than traditional thermionic tubes {{EXPLANATION: thermionic tubes,Traditional X-ray tubes that generate electrons by heating a filament, causing them to be emitted (thermionic emission). These tubes are larger, consume more power, and have slower switching times compared to newer cold emitter technologies.}}, enabling novel imaging geometries that could unlock new clinical and industrial applications. While still in development, this technology could fundamentally alter Varex's cost structure and addressable market over the next five to seven years. Manufacturing regionalization has become a critical strategic response to geopolitical tensions. The company's expansion into India, with a radiographic detector facility ramping production and a tubes factory under construction, aims to establish low-cost production for value-tier components where the company faces competition from Asia-based suppliers like iRay Technology and Jiangsu CareRay. This move not only reduces cost but also serves as a natural hedge against tariff volatility and supply chain disruptions. ## Financial Performance: Evidence of Turnaround Fiscal year 2025 results validate the margin repair thesis. Total revenue grew 4% to $845 million, driven by Industrial's 10% expansion to $252 million while Medical posted a modest 2% recovery to $592.6 million following FY2024's 14% decline. The real story lies in profitability: non-GAAP gross margin expanded 230 basis points to 35%, with Medical gross profit increasing $23.4 million on higher volume, favorable mix, and $13.3 million in lower material costs plus $10.1 million in productivity gains.

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The Industrial segment's gross margin reached 35.9%, higher than Medical's 33.8%, reflecting the benefits of long-term Linatron service agreements and economies of scale shared with Medical operations. Q4 2025 represented Industrial's highest revenue quarter ever at $77 million, with security inspection products driving the surge. The security vertical now accounts for 41% of Industrial sales, up from 40% in FY2024, as cargo screening demand accelerates globally. Tariffs have compressed margins by approximately 100-150 basis points, but mitigation strategies are working. The company is passing costs to customers, redirecting purchases to lower-tariff countries, and localizing supply chains. A one-time customs refund in Q2 provided a 200 basis point tailwind, while tariff impacts created a 150 basis point headwind in the second half, demonstrating the quarterly volatility. However, the underlying trend shows management's ability to maintain pricing power in a challenging trade environment.

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The balance sheet reflects disciplined capital allocation. Net debt leverage fell to 1.8x adjusted EBITDA, the lowest level since the spin-off, with $155 million in cash and an undrawn $155 million revolver. The company retired $75 million in convertible debt and plans to target gross debt in the $300-350 million range. Capital expenditures of $22.9 million in FY2025 will increase to $25-30 million in FY2026 to support cargo system production scaling in the U.K., indicating confidence in sustained Industrial demand.

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## Segment Dynamics: Medical Stabilizes, Industrial Accelerates Medical segment performance in FY2025 reveals a business emerging from destocking headwinds. After OEM customers reduced inventory throughout FY2024, order patterns normalized by Q2 2025, driving CT tube sales above trend in Q4. CT remains the largest modality at 40% of Medical revenue, with oncology and mammography showing strength while radiography, veterinary, and dental faced pressure. The segment's regional mix shifted slightly toward APAC due to recovery in China and increased sales to Canon, which alone represents 18% of total company revenue. China's medical market presents a complex risk-reward equation. The national anti-corruption campaign in FY2024 and MOFCOM investigations {{EXPLANATION: MOFCOM,The Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, which is responsible for administering foreign trade and economic cooperation. Its investigations can have significant geopolitical and business implications for companies operating in or with China.}} in FY2025 created significant uncertainty, contributing to the Medical reporting unit's $93.9 million goodwill impairment. However, the indefinite suspension of investigations in November 2025 removes a major overhang. Management is modeling China as "flattish" for FY2026, citing continued tender activity for value-tier and mid-tier CT systems supporting rural healthcare expansion. This conservative guidance masks potential upside if government stimulus programs accelerate. The Industrial segment's trajectory fundamentally strengthens the investment thesis. Cargo inspection systems booked over $55 million in orders and shipped more than 15 systems to Mexico, Iraq, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia in FY2025. A recent $25 million order for portal systems, following $14 million in orders the prior quarter, demonstrates pipeline acceleration. These systems carry lower hardware margins initially but transition to high-margin service revenue after 18-24 month warranty periods, creating a "nice gross margin tailwind" as management describes it. The $1 billion addressable market growing at 7% CAGR provides a long runway. Vertical integration in cargo systems offers a distinct competitive advantage. Unlike system integrators who source components, Varex manufactures high-energy X-ray sources, detectors, and imaging software in-house, enabling cost-effective innovation and better customer support. This matters because security screening procurement is highly cost-sensitive and requires rapid technical support for mission-critical operations. ## Competitive Context: Standing Apart from Giants Varex's competitive positioning differs meaningfully from diversified healthcare giants. GE HealthCare Technologies (TICKER:GEHC) and Koninklijke Philips (TICKER:PHG) maintain in-house component operations to support their systems businesses, but their scale creates complexity and slower decision-making. Varex's independence allows OEMs to source customized components without competing against their own supplier. The company's 34.4% gross margin trails GEHC's 40.8% and Philips' 43.5%, reflecting VREX's focused component model versus their integrated system pricing power, but VREX's operating margin of 8.6% is more resilient than Philips' 7.7%. In detectors, Varex competes with Trixell, Canon, Hamamatsu, and emerging Chinese players like iRay Technology and Jiangsu CareRay. The company's amorphous silicon-based digital detector technology, photon counting platform, and complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor technology provide competitive advantages in product quality and total cost of ownership. This matters because the detector market is fragmenting along price tiers, and VREX's India manufacturing strategy directly addresses low-cost Asian competition. Industrial competition splits between low-energy suppliers (iRay, Teledyne (TICKER:TDY), Comet AG) and high-energy players (Nuctech, Siemens (TICKER:SIEGY), ETM Electromatic). Varex's Linatron linear accelerators deliver significantly higher power for cargo screening, while its photon counting detectors enable material discrimination that mid-power competitors cannot match. Comet's Swiss precision engineering delivered 20% sales growth in H1 2025, but VREX's larger scale and medical diversification provide better cash flow stability. Customer concentration represents the most significant structural vulnerability. Four customers account for 40% of revenue, with Canon at 18% alone. This creates negotiating leverage and exposure to in-sourcing decisions. However, the replacement market partially mitigates this risk: even if Canon develops internal tube manufacturing for new systems, the installed base continues requiring VREX replacements for years. The company's strategy of embedding its components deeply into customer systems increases switching costs and fosters loyalty spanning over 35 years with most global medical X-ray OEMs. ## Outlook and Execution: Gradual Growth Ahead Management's FY2026 guidance reflects cautious optimism. Revenue is expected to grow across both segments, with Medical ex-China expanding and China stable. The company anticipates "normal gradual growth" through the year, contrasting with FY2025's uneven pattern caused by tariff volatility and destocking. Non-GAAP gross margin guidance of 32-34% for Q1 FY2026 suggests some tariff headwinds persist, but the full-year trajectory points to continued improvement. Industrial business momentum appears sustainable. The cargo systems pipeline includes mobile VXM6 units shipping to Europe and rail cargo scanners under development. The segment's margin profile should improve as recently shipped hardware transitions to service contracts, with management targeting 38-40% long-term industrial margins versus the 35.9% achieved in FY2025. Service revenue on the Linatron installed base already generated unusually high Q4 margins, demonstrating the earnings leverage embedded in the business model. Photon counting CT represents the most asymmetric upside driver. The collaboration with Technical University of Munich aims to demonstrate clinical value beyond resolution—material discrimination, workflow optimization, and reduced dose—at major trade shows in 2026. Success would accelerate OEM design-ins and validate the $150 million revenue target by 2029. Failure would relegate VREX to competing on cost in mature detector markets, compressing long-term margin potential. ## Risks and Asymmetries: What Could Break the Thesis Three material risks threaten the margin recovery narrative. First, renewed escalation in US-China trade tensions could increase tariffs beyond current 100-150 basis point impacts or prompt retaliatory measures against US medical component imports. While manufacturing regionalization mitigates this, complete decoupling would disrupt supply chains and customer relationships. Second, cargo system execution risk looms large. Scaling production in the U.K. facility while maintaining quality and hitting delivery schedules for multimillion-dollar projects requires operational excellence the company is still building. A major installation failure or customer dissipation could damage reputation in a small, relationship-driven market. Third, OEM concentration risk crystallized in the goodwill impairment. If Canon or another major customer accelerates in-sourcing or shifts volume to Chinese competitors like iRay, revenue could drop precipitously. The 18% exposure to Canon means a single strategic decision could erase growth and trigger further write-downs. Positive asymmetry exists if photon counting adoption exceeds expectations. The technology could command premium pricing and expand VREX's addressable market beyond traditional radiography and CT into functional imaging and material analysis. Similarly, cargo systems could scale faster than the 7% CAGR market forecast if border security funding increases globally. ## Valuation Context: Cash Flow at a Discount At $11.39 per share, VREX trades at a market capitalization of $475 million and enterprise value of $728 million, representing 0.86x trailing twelve-month revenue of $845 million. This revenue multiple stands at less than half GE HealthCare's 1.81x and Philips' 1.50x, reflecting VREX's component supplier discount versus integrated system vendors. The company's enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of 7.81x appears attractive relative to GEHC's 11.97x and Philips' 15.97x, particularly given VREX's margin expansion trajectory. Free cash flow metrics tell a more compelling story. With $18.8 million in annual free cash flow, VREX trades at 12x P/FCF, significantly below GEHC's 24.6x and Philips' 18.7x. This valuation gap suggests the market has not yet priced in the durability of VREX's replacement revenue stream or the margin leverage from Industrial growth. The company's net debt leverage of 1.8x EBITDA provides financial flexibility, while the $155 million cash position and undrawn $155 million revolver offer ample liquidity for the $25-30 million in planned FY2026 capex.

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Profitability metrics require selective interpretation. The -8.32% net margin reflects the $93.9 million goodwill impairment rather than operational weakness. Operating margin of 8.6% and return on assets of 3.6% demonstrate underlying earnings power that should improve as tariff mitigation matures and Industrial mix shifts higher. The absence of a dividend, with 0% payout ratio, indicates management's preference for reinvesting in growth initiatives like photon counting and cargo systems rather than returning capital. ## Conclusion: A Transformed Risk-Reward Profile Varex Imaging enters FY2026 having demonstrated that margin repair and geopolitical resilience can coexist. The 230 basis points of gross margin expansion in FY2025, driven by Industrial growth and operational excellence, validates the dual-segment strategy while the MOFCOM suspension removes a binary risk that had overshadowed the China business. The company's independent OEM supplier model, protected by a massive installed base and technological differentiation in photon counting, creates durable cash flows that the market undervalues at 12x free cash flow. The investment thesis hinges on execution in three areas: scaling cargo systems production to capture the $1 billion addressable market, advancing photon counting CT from development to revenue, and maintaining pricing power amid customer concentration and Asian competition. Success would drive margin expansion beyond the 35% gross level and justify multiple re-rating toward industrial technology peers. Failure on any front would expose VREX to its historical cyclicality and compress returns. For long-term investors, VREX offers an asymmetric opportunity: downside protected by replacement revenue and balance sheet strength, with upside from Industrial growth and next-generation imaging technology. The critical variables to monitor are Industrial segment order rates, photon counting customer design-ins, and Canon's procurement strategy. If management delivers on its FY2026 growth targets while navigating these risks, the current valuation will prove a compelling entry point into a mission-critical technology supplier.