Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Conway Facility Ramp Drives Transformational Growth: Westrock Coffee's $400 million Conway, Arkansas complex is transitioning from capital sink to revenue engine, delivering 60%+ segment growth and 74% EBITDA expansion in Q3 2025 as production nears 80% of planned capacity across RTD cans, single-serve cups, and extracts.

• Sustainability Traceability Creates Pricing Power Moat: The SST segment's proprietary farm-to-cup tracking technology enables premium pricing and customer lock-in, with 61% revenue growth and 133% EBITDA growth in Q3 2025, providing a durable competitive advantage against commodity-focused rivals.

• Liquidity Tightrope Successfully Managed: Despite 70% coffee price inflation and new tariffs on 60% of Brazilian supply, Westrock has maintained covenant compliance and secured additional capital, expecting free cash flow positivity within 4-5 months as working capital headwinds moderate.

• Scale Disadvantage Offset by Integration: While smaller than Keurig Dr Pepper and J.M. Smucker , Westrock's integrated roast-to-package model and sustainability credentials position it to capture market share shifts toward private-label and ESG-focused customers, with over 80% of initial Conway capacity already contracted.

• Critical Execution Risks Remain: A single-serve customer involved in a pending M&A transaction creates near-term volume uncertainty, while any slowdown in Conway's ramp could strain liquidity and delay the path to the company's $200 million EBITDA target over 3-4 years.

Setting the Scene: The Integrated Supplier Advantage

Westrock Coffee Company, founded in 2009 and headquartered in Little Rock, Arkansas, went public in mid-2022 with a clear mission: become the premier integrated strategic supplier to global coffee, tea, and energy beverage brands. This strategy emerged from a fundamental observation that consumer preferences were shifting toward sustainable, traceable products, requiring suppliers to offer far more than commodity roasting. The company positioned itself to deliver end-to-end solutions, from green coffee sourcing through final packaging, leveraging technology and scale to capture a structural market shift.

The coffee industry operates through fragmented value chains, with most players specializing in either sourcing, roasting, or packaging. Westrock's differentiation lies in integrating these functions while adding a proprietary sustainability tracking layer. This matters because major CPG brands and retailers increasingly demand supply chain transparency, not just cost efficiency. The company's two-segment structure reflects this strategy: Beverage Solutions provides value-added products across multiple formats, while Sustainable Sourcing Traceability (SST) monetizes the technology infrastructure that tracks coffee from farm to cup.

Industry dynamics favor integrated players. As coffee prices surge and tariffs disrupt traditional supply chains, customers seek suppliers who can manage volatility while delivering consistent quality and ESG compliance. Westrock's $400 million investment in its Conway, Arkansas complex—spanning over one million square feet—represents the largest roast-to-extract-to-RTD facility in the United States. This capacity can produce hundreds of millions of RTD cans and glass bottles, plus billions of single-serve cups annually, positioning Westrock to serve the fastest-growing segments of the beverage market.

History with a Purpose: Building the Conway Engine

Westrock's public listing in 2022 provided the capital catalyst for its transformation. Between mid-2022 and late 2024, the company deployed nearly $400 million to build and equip the Conway facilities, a new single-serve cup plant, and a distribution center. This wasn't mere capacity expansion; it was a strategic repositioning to capture market share from less integrated competitors. The timing proved prescient, as 2024's historically high coffee prices and supply chain disruptions validated the need for suppliers with direct sourcing relationships and vertical integration.

The company made difficult decisions to focus resources. In 2024, Westrock closed and sold its West Winds facility in Concord, North Carolina, and shut down its Richmond, California plant, consolidating production into Conway. This created near-term disruption but established a single, highly efficient manufacturing footprint. The company also automated two packaging lines in its core roast and ground business, adding capacity for over 20 million pounds annually to serve new retail and private-label customers.

2025 marked the commercial inflection point. The Conway extract and RTD facility began commercial production runs in April, while the second single-serve cup plant launched seamlessly within the distribution center complex. To support this ramp, Westrock formed a Rwandan joint venture with ECOM to scale Arabica operations and entered commodity purchase agreements to manage price volatility. These moves demonstrate management's focus on execution over expansion, ensuring the core asset delivers returns before pursuing additional growth.

Technology and Strategic Differentiation: The Traceability Moat

Westrock's core technological advantage resides in its SST segment's digitally traceable supply chain. This isn't marketing fluff; it's a proprietary system that tracks coffee from specific farms through every processing step to final delivery. Why does this matter? Because it provides verifiable ESG credentials that command premium pricing and create switching costs. Customers building sustainable brands cannot easily replicate this infrastructure, locking them into long-term relationships.

The economic impact is visible in SST's financial performance. Q3 2025 segment EBITDA grew 133% on 61% revenue growth, with margins expanding as volume increased. This scalability proves the technology's value: as more coffee flows through the traceability system, incremental margins improve. The segment also provides a natural hedge against commodity volatility, as higher green coffee prices directly translate to higher SST revenues while the company captures margin on processing and logistics.

In Beverage Solutions, Westrock's integrated model creates cost and speed advantages. The Conway facility's ability to move from green coffee to finished RTD cans or single-serve cups in one location reduces transportation costs, inventory carrying costs, and time-to-market, which is crucial for CPG customers who need rapid product development cycles. The company is leveraging this capability to explore ultra-filtered milk-based, high-protein products using its large retort lines —a potential market as large as RTD coffee over 2-4 years.

The technology roadmap extends beyond coffee. Westrock's retort capabilities can process non-coffee beverages, and the company has capacity to add 5 billion more single-serve cups within 24 months if demand materializes. This optionality provides a growth path that doesn't require greenfield investment, as the Conway infrastructure already supports incremental production lines.

Financial Performance: Evidence of Execution

Q3 2025 results validate the Conway investment thesis. Beverage Solutions revenue surged 60% to $263 million, with EBITDA jumping 74% to $20.4 million. This growth wasn't acquisition-driven; it came from volume increases across all categories. Single-serve cup volumes rose 85%, core roast and ground coffee grew 4%, and extracts saw a fivefold sales increase from the main production line. The segment's EBITDA margin expanded by 70 basis points year-over-year, demonstrating operational leverage as fixed costs were absorbed by higher volumes.

The SST segment delivered even stronger leverage, with 61% revenue growth translating to 133% EBITDA growth. This 520 basis point margin expansion shows the scalability of the traceability platform. Combined segment performance drove consolidated growth of 31% for the nine-month period, with EBITDA up 39%.

However, the income statement reveals the cost of transformation. The company posted a $67.9 million net loss for the nine months ended September 2025, with cash outflow from operations of $55.7 million. These losses stem from Conway start-up costs, working capital inflation from high coffee prices, and tariff impacts. The gross margin of 13.9% reflects pass-through commodity pricing, not structural weakness. As volumes stabilize and price increases flow through, margins should normalize.

Liquidity management has been proactive. In November 2025, Westrock raised $30 million in convertible notes and amended its credit agreement to extend covenant relief through October 2026. The company had $52 million in unrestricted cash and $200 million in revolving capacity before this raise, providing runway to reach free cash flow positivity. Management expects this inflection within 4-5 months as Conway reaches steady-state production and working capital needs moderate.

Outlook and Guidance: The Path to $200 Million EBITDA

Management's guidance reflects confidence tempered by conservatism. For 2025, they maintain consolidated EBITDA guidance of $60-65 million, with Beverage Solutions at $63-68 million and SST at $14-16 million. This implies Q4 will be the strongest quarter, driven by full Conway ramp-up and seasonal demand. The secured net leverage ratio is expected to improve to 4.5x by year-end, a 40 basis point improvement from prior guidance.

The 2026 outlook remains unchanged, targeting a net secured leverage ratio of 3.0x and continued segment growth. Over the next 3-4 years, management aims to drive EBITDA to $200 million, a threefold increase from current levels. This target assumes successful execution of the Conway ramp, market share gains from integrated competitors, and expansion into adjacent categories like ultra-filtered milk products.

Key assumptions underpinning this outlook include sustained demand from the dozen-plus global CPG brands and retailers that have already contracted for over 80% of Conway's initial capacity. The company also assumes it can replace any lost volume from the uncertain single-serve customer through expanded relationships with existing customers and new wins. For covenant purposes, management conservatively assumed this customer would exit by year-end, providing a buffer if the M&A transaction results in volume loss.

The second can line installation, expected to start commercial production in Q1 2026, and the glass line launching in December 2025, provide visible growth drivers. These additions will further absorb fixed costs and improve margins as they reach capacity.

Risks and Asymmetries: What Could Break the Thesis

The most immediate risk involves the single-serve customer undergoing acquisition by a competitor. While management has conservatively modeled a complete exit, the actual impact could range from zero to a significant volume loss. This uncertainty creates potential downside to 2026 guidance if replacement business doesn't materialize as quickly as anticipated. The company's confidence stems from its pipeline and capacity to add 5 billion cups, but execution risk remains.

Conway ramp execution presents operational risk. While production has reached 80% of planned capacity on key lines, any delays in the second can line or glass line could push out free cash flow positivity and strain liquidity. The company has already experienced higher-than-anticipated start-up costs, and further issues could impact covenant compliance or require additional capital raises.

Coffee price volatility and tariffs create working capital risk. With 60% of coffee sourced from Brazil facing 50% tariffs, Westrock must manage inventory values and cash conversion cycles carefully. While the company passes through costs, the timing mismatch creates short-term liquidity pressure. The commodity purchase and receivables purchase agreements help, but sustained high prices could require more aggressive working capital management.

Scale disadvantages versus Keurig Dr Pepper and J.M. Smucker limit procurement leverage. While Westrock's integration provides other advantages, larger competitors can absorb commodity shocks more easily and invest more in R&D. This could pressure margins if a price war emerges in key categories.

Competitive Context: Integration vs. Scale

Westrock competes directly with Farmer Brothers (FARM) in foodservice, J.M. Smucker in retail ground coffee, Keurig Dr Pepper in single-serve, and BRC Inc. in specialty segments. Each competitor brings scale advantages: KDP commands over 80% of the pod market with gross margins near 55%, while SJM's Folgers brand dominates mass-market retail with 35% gross margins. FARM's direct-store-delivery network provides customer intimacy in foodservice, and BRCC's veteran-focused brand commands premium pricing.

Westrock's differentiation lies in its integrated model and sustainability credentials. While KDP and SJM operate separate sourcing, roasting, and packaging functions, Westrock's Conway facility consolidates these steps, reducing handoffs and costs. The traceability technology provides a qualitative edge that commodity-focused competitors cannot easily replicate, particularly for premium private-label customers seeking ESG compliance.

Financial comparisons highlight the trade-off. Westrock's 13.9% gross margin reflects its B2B focus and commodity pass-through, well below KDP's 54.8% and SJM's 35.1%. However, Westrock's 60% revenue growth dramatically exceeds the low-single-digit growth at larger competitors. The EV/Revenue multiple of 1.03x sits below KDP's 3.6x and SJM's 2.1x, suggesting the market hasn't fully priced the growth trajectory.

The competitive moat deepens as customers seek "one-stop-shop" suppliers. Westrock's ability to offer roast and ground, single-serve, extracts, and RTD from a single, traceable source reduces complexity for CPG brands, a critical advantage as product development cycles accelerate and retailers demand faster innovation. The company's success in cross-selling—winning customers in one category and expanding to others—demonstrates this advantage in practice.

Valuation Context: Growth at a Reasonable Price

At $4.62 per share, Westrock Coffee trades at an enterprise value of $1.11 billion, representing 1.03 times trailing revenue. This multiple stands well below direct beverage peers like Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) (3.6x revenue) and J.M. Smucker (SJM) (2.1x revenue), reflecting Westrock's smaller scale and current lack of profitability. The EV/EBITDA ratio of 62.15x appears elevated due to the company's transitional phase, with EBITDA margins compressed by Conway start-up costs and commodity price impacts.

For a company in a heavy investment cycle, revenue multiples provide clearer valuation context than earnings-based metrics. Westrock's 1.03x revenue multiple compares favorably to BRC Inc. (BRCC) at 0.5x, despite Westrock's significantly higher growth rate. The market appears to be valuing Westrock as a traditional coffee roaster rather than an integrated technology-enabled supplier, creating potential upside if the company executes its margin expansion plan.

Key balance sheet metrics show manageable leverage. The debt-to-equity ratio of 2.45x is elevated but improving, with the secured net leverage ratio expected to decline to 4.5x by year-end. The current ratio of 1.02x and quick ratio of 0.35x indicate adequate near-term liquidity, particularly after the $30 million convertible note raise. With $15 million in remaining Conway CapEx and free cash flow positivity expected within 4-5 months, the company appears to be approaching a self-funding inflection point.

The valuation hinges on execution of the $200 million EBITDA target over 3-4 years. Achieving this would imply an EV/EBITDA multiple below 6x at current enterprise value, a significant discount to peers. The primary risk is that execution delays or customer losses prevent margin expansion, leaving the company valued as a low-margin commodity processor rather than a premium integrated supplier.

Conclusion: Execution Determines Premium Valuation

Westrock Coffee's investment thesis centers on a singular proposition: the $400 million Conway facility will transform the company from a regional roaster into a national integrated supplier capable of generating $200 million in EBITDA within four years. Q3 2025 results provide early validation, with 60% segment growth and 80% capacity utilization demonstrating that demand exists and operations are scaling.

The sustainability traceability moat provides a durable competitive advantage that commodity-focused competitors cannot easily replicate, supporting premium pricing and customer retention. However, scale disadvantages versus KDP and SJM mean Westrock must execute flawlessly to achieve its targets. The company's success in securing over 80% of Conway's initial capacity from premier global brands suggests it is winning the market share shifts it predicted.

Liquidity management has been proactive and effective, with multiple capital raises and covenant amendments providing runway to reach free cash flow positivity. The primary risks—single-serve customer M&A uncertainty, Conway execution challenges, and coffee price volatility—are manageable but could delay the timeline if they materialize.

At 1.03 times revenue, the stock prices in moderate success rather than full execution. For investors, the key variables to monitor are Conway's ramp trajectory, resolution of the single-serve customer situation, and the timing of free cash flow generation. If Westrock delivers on its 2026 leverage targets and begins generating consistent cash, the valuation gap versus larger peers should close, rewarding patient shareholders who bet on integration over scale.