Exxon Mobil disclosed that a decline in oil prices is projected to reduce its fourth‑quarter 2025 upstream earnings by between $800 million and $1.2 billion compared with the third quarter. Changes in gas prices are expected to affect upstream results by a negative $300 million to a positive $100 million over the same period, reflecting the company’s sensitivity to commodity price swings.
The guidance follows a sequential drop in upstream earnings, but year‑over‑year context shows a more gradual decline. Q4 2024 upstream earnings were $6.5 billion and Q4 2023 earnings were $6.158 billion, indicating that the current quarter’s projected shortfall is part of a broader trend of price‑driven erosion rather than a sudden shock.
While upstream earnings face headwinds, other segments are positioned to offset some of the impact. Energy Products is expected to see a positive contribution of $300 million to $700 million from improved industry margins, Specialty Products could add up to $200 million, and Chemical Products is projected to experience a negative impact of $200 million to $400 million. Asset sales are anticipated to contribute an additional $600 million to $800 million to Q4 earnings, partially mitigating the upstream decline, while restructuring charges of up to $200 million are expected to reduce earnings further.
Management emphasized disciplined cost management and the continued focus on low‑cost production assets. CEO Darren Woods highlighted the company’s “disciplined cost management, low‑cost production assets, and a diversified business model” as key to navigating the current price environment. He also noted that strategic investments in the Guyana and Permian Basin assets remain a priority, underscoring confidence in long‑term growth despite short‑term commodity volatility.
Analysts had previously projected an adjusted earnings‑per‑share figure of about $1.66 for Q4 2025. The guidance’s range of upstream earnings impacts suggests that the company’s overall Q4 EPS could remain near consensus, but the upstream shortfall will likely tighten margins and pressure the company to rely on other segments and asset sales to maintain profitability.
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