Noodles & Company (NASDAQ:NDLS) has been a trailblazer in the modern fast casual dining industry, offering a unique blend of globally-inspired noodle and pasta dishes, soups, salads, and appetizers. Founded in 1995, the Colorado-based restaurant chain has meticulously crafted an uncommon dining experience that caters to the evolving preferences of health-conscious consumers seeking quality, flavor, and convenience.

Company History and Growth

Noodles & Company’s journey began over 27 years ago when the first restaurant opened its doors in Denver, Colorado. The company’s vision was to bring globally-inspired noodle dishes to the mainstream, offering customers a fast, affordable, and high-quality dining alternative to traditional fast food. This innovative approach quickly gained traction, and by the end of 2023, Noodles & Company had expanded to 471 restaurants across 31 states, comprising 377 company-owned and 94 franchise locations.

The company experienced steady growth in its early years, reaching 209 locations by 2005. However, it faced challenges in the competitive fast casual restaurant market during the early 2000s, prompting the company to adapt its business model. In 2010, Noodles & Company went public on the NASDAQ stock exchange, raising $96.5 million in its initial public offering. This influx of capital allowed the company to accelerate its growth, reaching 339 locations by 2013.

Challenges and Turnaround Efforts

Despite this expansion, Noodles & Company encountered operational and supply chain challenges that impacted its financial performance in the following years. To address these issues, the company initiated a turnaround effort in 2016, focusing on improving restaurant-level execution, enhancing the guest experience, and strengthening its management team. This included optimizing labor models, upgrading kitchen equipment, and investing in training and development for employees.

By 2019, Noodles & Company had stabilized its business and returned to steady growth, opening new locations across the country. The company also began leveraging its digital capabilities, building out its online ordering and delivery services to meet evolving consumer preferences. However, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 presented significant challenges, as the company had to navigate temporary restaurant closures and changes in consumer behavior.

Financials

The company’s financial performance has been marked by both successes and challenges in recent years. In fiscal year 2023, Noodles & Company reported total revenue of $503.40 million, a 1.9% increase from the prior year. However, the company’s net income declined from $3.67 million in 2021 to a loss of $9.86 million in 2023, largely due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and operational headwinds.

For the most recent quarter (Q3 2024), Noodles & Company reported revenue of $122.75 million, representing a 4.0% decrease year-over-year. The net loss for the quarter was $6.75 million. Operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was $5.82 million, while free cash flow was negative $1.33 million. The decrease in revenue was primarily attributed to a 3.3% system-wide comparable restaurant sales decrease, restaurant closures, and the refranchising of 6 company-owned restaurants, partially offset by new restaurant openings.

Liquidity

Despite these short-term setbacks, Noodles & Company has remained steadfast in its commitment to long-term growth and profitability. The company’s current liquidity position, with a cash balance of $3.30 million as of October 1, 2024, and availability of $32.10 million under its revolving credit facility, provides a foundation for future investments and strategic initiatives. However, it’s worth noting that the company’s debt-to-equity ratio stands at 23.66, indicating a significant level of leverage. The current ratio of 0.31 and quick ratio of 0.17 suggest potential liquidity challenges in the short term.

Operational Improvements

One of Noodles & Company’s key priorities has been to strengthen its operational foundation, with a focus on enhancing staff training, improving guest satisfaction, and streamlining execution across its restaurant network. The company has reported significant progress in these areas, with management turnover now well below the industry average and guest satisfaction scores accelerating each month in the third quarter of 2024.

Menu Transformation

Alongside these operational improvements, Noodles & Company has also been actively transforming its menu offerings to better align with evolving consumer preferences. The company has embarked on a comprehensive menu transformation, with plans to impact approximately two-thirds of its menu through new or improved dishes over the next year. This strategic initiative has already yielded positive results, with the introduction of three new nationally-launched dishes in October 2024 – Crispy Chicken Bacon Alfredo, Lemon Garlic Shrimp Scampi, and Chipotle Chicken Cavatappi – driving a noticeable improvement in the company’s traffic trends.

Digital Ecosystem

Noodles & Company’s digital ecosystem has also been a key focus area, with the company deriving 55% of its total sales from digital channels and its loyalty program accounting for 26% of total sales. The company plans to further leverage its digital capabilities, including the launch of a new mobile app in the fourth quarter of 2024, to drive profitable traffic growth and enhance the overall customer experience.

Financial Management

In addition to its operational and menu transformation initiatives, Noodles & Company has also been proactively managing its financial position. The company recently amended its credit agreement, providing more flexible financial covenants and improving its overall financial flexibility. Furthermore, Noodles & Company has reduced its capital expenditures from $52 million in 2023 to a projected $29-$31 million in 2024, with plans to further decrease capital spending to less than $15 million in 2025.

Restaurant Performance

Noodles & Company’s restaurant performance has faced challenges in recent quarters. In the third quarter of 2024, restaurant revenue was $120.16 million, a decrease of 4.0% compared to the same period in 2023. For the first three quarters of 2024, restaurant revenue was $363.90 million, a decrease of 1.9% year-over-year. The decrease in restaurant revenue was primarily due to a decline in comparable restaurant sales.

System-wide comparable restaurant sales decreased 3.3% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, comprised of a 3.4% decrease at company-owned restaurants and a 2.9% decrease at franchise-owned restaurants. For the first three quarters of 2024, system-wide comparable restaurant sales decreased 2.3%, with a 2.6% decrease at company-owned restaurants and a 1.0% decrease at franchise-owned restaurants. The decline in comparable sales was driven by a decrease in customer traffic amid a challenging consumer environment.

Average Unit Volumes (AUVs) for company-owned restaurants were $1.27 million in the third quarter of 2024, a decrease of 4.7% compared to the third quarter of 2023. For the first three quarters of 2024, company-owned restaurant AUVs were $1.28 million, a decrease of 4.0% year-over-year.

Franchise Performance

Franchise revenue, which includes royalties and fees, was $2.59 million in the third quarter of 2024, a decrease of 2.2% compared to the third quarter of 2023. For the first three quarters of 2024, franchise revenue was $7.60 million, a decrease of 7.9% year-over-year. The decrease in franchise revenue was mainly driven by the decline in franchise-owned comparable restaurant sales.

Restaurant Operations

Noodles & Company’s restaurant operating costs, excluding depreciation and amortization, include cost of sales, labor, occupancy, and other restaurant operating costs. In the third quarter of 2024, these costs as a percentage of restaurant revenue were 25.5% for cost of sales, 32.0% for labor, 9.6% for occupancy, and 20.1% for other operating costs. For the first three quarters of 2024, the percentages were 25.1%, 31.8%, 9.6%, and 19.7%, respectively.

The company has been managing inflationary pressures through menu price increases, labor efficiency initiatives, and other cost control measures. However, sales deleverage has resulted in higher labor and other operating costs as a percentage of revenue compared to the prior year periods.

Guidance and Future Outlook

For the full year 2024, Noodles & Company is providing guidance of $487 million to $495 million for revenue, inclusive of negative 3% to negative 1.5% comparable restaurant sales. The company expects full year 2024 restaurant contribution margin between 12.7% and 13.3%. General and administrative expenses are anticipated to be between $51 million and $53 million, inclusive of approximately $4.5 million in stock-based compensation expense. Depreciation and amortization expense is expected to be between $28 million and $30 million, with interest expense projected at $8 million to $9 million.

In terms of restaurant development, Noodles & Company plans to open a total of 10 new company-owned restaurants and 3 new franchise restaurants in 2024. The company also expects to close a total of 12 to 14 company-owned restaurants and 7 franchise restaurants in fiscal year 2024. Looking ahead to fiscal year 2025, Noodles & Company anticipates total capital expenditures will be less than $15 million, primarily due to a reduction in company-owned new restaurant openings from 10 in 2024 to 2 planned openings in 2025. The company expects to achieve positive free cash flow in 2025.

Future Outlook

While Noodles & Company has faced some near-term challenges, such as a sudden decline in third-party delivery sales and a difficult consumer environment, the company’s long-term growth prospects remain a focus. The company’s emphasis on operational excellence, menu innovation, digital transformation, and financial discipline positions it to navigate the current market conditions and capture future opportunities.

As Noodles & Company continues to evolve and adapt to the changing landscape of the modern fast casual dining industry, investors will be closely watching the company’s ability to execute on its strategic priorities and deliver sustainable, profitable growth in the years to come. The fast casual restaurant industry has seen a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8-10% in recent years, though the sector has faced challenges with inflationary pressures and a challenging consumer environment in 2023-2024. Noodles & Company’s ability to outperform these industry trends will be crucial for its future success.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or other types of advice. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information presented here, the author and the publisher do not make any guarantees about the completeness, reliability, and accuracy of this information.