Cango Inc. (CANG)

Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Fastest Mining Scale-Up in Industry History: Cango transformed from a legacy Chinese auto financier to a 50 EH/s Bitcoin miner in just nine months, using an asset-light partnership model that delivered speed but left margins trailing established peers.

• "Mine and Hold" Treasury Strategy: The company retains all mined Bitcoin (6,959 BTC as of November 2025) as a strategic reserve, creating a direct leveraged exposure to Bitcoin price appreciation while management targets $90,000-$120,000 per coin in 2025.

• Mining as AI Infrastructure On-Ramp: Beyond Bitcoin, Cango is building a global distributed AI compute network powered by green energy, with pilot projects in Oman and Indonesia expected to commission within two years, positioning mining as the practical entry point to a larger addressable market.

• Competitive Speed vs. Structural Depth: Cango's rapid scaling through share-based acquisitions and hosted operations allowed it to reach 50 EH/s faster than vertically integrated rivals, but this comes at the cost of higher electricity expenses and less operational control, reflected in 9% operating margins versus peers' 30-60%.

• Concentration Risk Defines the Thesis: With 99% of Q1 2025 revenue from Bitcoin mining, the investment case stands or falls on operational execution, Bitcoin price trajectory, and the company's ability to diversify into AI compute before the next mining difficulty cycle compresses margins further.

Setting the Scene: From Auto Loans to Exahashes

Cango Inc., founded in 2010 and headquartered in Shanghai, spent its first decade building one of China's largest auto financing platforms, reaching a peak loan balance exceeding RMB 40 billion. The company systematically unwound this legacy business starting in 2021, reducing outstanding loans to RMB 3.9 billion by end-2024 before completing a clean exit through a $352 million divestiture in May 2025. This wasn't a gradual pivot—it was a deliberate demolition of the old business to make way for the new.

The trigger for transformation arrived in November 2024, when the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States signaled institutional legitimacy for the asset class. Cango's leadership recognized that Bitcoin mining could serve as more than a revenue source; it could become the foundation for a distributed AI compute network powered by green energy. The company launched its "energy plus computing power" strategy, acquiring 50 EH/s of mining capacity for $400 million, with $256 million settled in cash and the remainder through share-based payments. By June 2025, Cango had deployed all 50 EH/s, making it the third-largest public Bitcoin miner globally in under a year.

Today, Cango operates a binary business structure. Bitcoin mining generated $220.9 million in Q3 2025 revenue, representing 98% of the company's $224.6 million total. The AutoCango used-car export platform, while asset-light and growing (90% sequential growth to $3.3 million in Q3), remains a rounding error in the overall picture. Meanwhile, green energy projects in Oman and Indonesia and a 50-megawatt facility acquisition in Georgia for $19.5 million in August 2025 lay the groundwork for the AI compute vision that management hopes will ultimately diversify the revenue base.

Technology, Strategy, and Differentiation: The Asset-Light Sprint

Cango's core technological advantage isn't in chip design or power generation—it's in the asset-light model that enabled unprecedented scaling speed. The company acquired "Plug & Play" mining rigs from partners like Bitmain and Antalpha, deploying 32 EH/s by November 2024 and reaching 50 EH/s by June 2025 without the capital intensity that constrains vertically integrated rivals. This approach delivered 60.6% sequential revenue growth in Q3 2025, a rate that Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms achieved only through years of infrastructure development.

The strategy carries inherent trade-offs. Hosted operations under power purchase agreements expose Cango to higher electricity costs than peers who own their facilities. Q3 2025 cash costs reached $81,072 per Bitcoin (excluding depreciation), with all-in costs at $99,383. This means that at the lower end of management's $90,000-$120,000 Bitcoin price target, the company would operate at a loss, while the upper end provides a healthy margin. While Marathon and Riot secure power at $0.03-$0.04 per kWh through owned sites, Cango's hosted model pays a premium for flexibility. The Georgia facility acquisition signals a strategic shift toward a "lease first with selected strategic acquisitions" model, aiming to reduce power costs while maintaining deployment velocity.

The long-term vision extends beyond Bitcoin. Management frames mining as a "practical on-ramp" to building a global distributed AI compute network. The 50-megawatt Georgia site provides not just mining capacity but potential high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure, while pilot renewable projects in Oman and Indonesia target near-zero-cost operations that could support AI workloads. This positions Cango differently from pure-play miners—the company is effectively using Bitcoin mining to fund and develop the energy infrastructure required for distributed AI compute, targeting small and mid-sized enterprises with flexible compute units.

Financial Performance: Speed at the Cost of Efficiency

Cango's Q3 2025 results validate the scaling strategy while exposing its margin implications. Total revenue of $224.6 million represented 60.6% sequential growth, driven entirely by Bitcoin mining's $220.9 million contribution. The company mined 1,930.8 Bitcoins at an average daily production of 21 coins, up 37.5% and 36% respectively from Q2. Operating hashrate improved from 40.91 EH/s in July to 46.09 EH/s in October, with efficiency surpassing 90%—demonstrating that the rapid deployment didn't sacrifice operational stability.

Profitability metrics, however, reveal the cost of speed. Gross margin of 16.55% and operating margin of 9.01% trail Marathon's 44.87% gross and 31.45% operating margins significantly. The gap reflects both higher power costs and depreciation from the rapid capacity build-out. Q2 2025's net loss of $299.57 million stemmed from two one-time items: the $352 million China asset divestiture and a non-cash hedge accounting adjustment from the share-based acquisition of 18 EH/s. Excluding these, adjusted EBITDA would have been $99.1 million, showing the underlying mining business generates positive economics.

The balance sheet reflects a company in transition. As of September 2025, Cango held $44.9 million in cash and $660 million in receivables for Bitcoin collateral, against $405.1 million in related-party debt. The "mine and hold" strategy has accumulated 6,959 Bitcoins—worth approximately $660 million at a $95,000 Bitcoin price, exceeding the company's $419 million market capitalization. This treasury provides both a liquidity buffer and leveraged exposure to Bitcoin appreciation, though it also concentrates risk.

Outlook and Execution: Unlocking 50 EH/s of Value

Management's guidance for the second half of 2025 focuses on extracting maximum value from the deployed 50 EH/s through efficiency upgrades and selective site acquisitions. The company anticipates Bitcoin trading between $90,000 and $120,000, driven by institutional adoption and regulatory approvals. At the midpoint, this implies a healthy margin above Q3's $99,383 all-in cost, though continuous upward pressure on mining difficulty and electricity costs could compress this buffer.

The strategic roadmap emphasizes a balanced approach: maintaining the asset-light model for rapid scaling while acquiring strategic facilities like Georgia to reduce power costs and enable AI infrastructure upgrades. Clean energy projects in Oman and Indonesia, expected to commission within one to two years, aim to achieve near-zero-cost mining while retrofitting facilities for HPC applications. This timeline suggests meaningful AI revenue remains two to three years away, making Bitcoin mining the sole earnings driver for the foreseeable future.

Operational uptime stabilized above 90% in Q3, which management notes is industry-leading, though external factors like weather and grid curtailment prevent 100% availability. The company conducts frequent stress tests and can dynamically adjust or shut down high-cost sites in extreme scenarios, reallocating hashrate to control expenses. This flexibility, born from the asset-light model, provides a risk mitigation tool that vertically integrated peers lack.

Risks: When Speed Meets Reality

Bitcoin concentration defines Cango's risk profile. With mining accounting for 99% of Q1 2025 revenue, the company has no meaningful diversification if Bitcoin prices fall below cost thresholds. A sustained drop below $80,000 would render the 50 EH/s fleet cash-flow negative at current cost structures, forcing difficult decisions about site shutdowns and hashrate reallocation. While management maintains flexibility, the pure-play exposure contrasts sharply with Hut 8 's hybrid mining-HPC model or Marathon's treasury management strategy.

Operational execution at scale remains unproven. Scaling from zero to 50 EH/s in nine months required integrating over 138,000 machines across multiple continents, with 40% in the U.S. and the remainder in Oman, Paraguay, and Canada. The initial integration of the 18 EH/s acquisition caused temporary downtime in Q2 due to cross-state relocations and power system commissioning. While uptime has stabilized above 90%, the company lacks the decades of operational experience that Riot and Marathon have accumulated managing owned facilities.

Partnership dependency creates supply chain vulnerability. Cango's rapid scaling relied on Bitmain and Antalpha relationships for both hardware and hosted capacity. While these partnerships enabled speed, they also create concentration risk—any disruption in ASIC supply or hosting agreements could impair operations. Marathon's vertical integration and owned infrastructure provide insulation from such risks, while Cango's model remains exposed to supplier dynamics.

Regulatory and energy policy changes pose additional threats. Management monitors U.S. policy developments and maintains local compliance teams, noting that most mining-friendly states have no restrictive policies. However, a shift in federal energy policy or state-level restrictions on data center power access could impact operations. The company's distributed global footprint mitigates this risk relative to U.S.-concentrated peers, but regulatory uncertainty remains a key variable.

Competitive Context: Speed vs. Structure

Cango's competitive positioning reflects a deliberate trade-off between scaling velocity and operational depth. Marathon Digital (MARA), with approximately 30 EH/s, generates $252 million quarterly revenue and 31.45% operating margins through owned infrastructure and low-cost power contracts. Cango's 50 EH/s produced $220.9 million in Q3, reflecting lower efficiency from hosted operations and higher power costs. However, Cango achieved this scale in months while Marathon required years, demonstrating the asset-light model's speed advantage.

Riot Platforms (RIOT) operates approximately 4-6% of global hashrate with access to power costs as low as $0.03/kWh, driving 28.36% operating margins. Cango's hosted model likely pays $0.05-$0.06/kWh, explaining the margin gap. Yet Riot's deliberate expansion pace means Cango has surpassed its hashrate despite starting from zero, illustrating how partnership-based scaling can outpace organic growth during bull markets.

CleanSpark (CLSK)'s renewable energy focus and 55.23% gross margins highlight a structural advantage Cango lacks. While Cango pilots green projects in Oman and Indonesia, CleanSpark's existing sustainable infrastructure provides both cost benefits and regulatory insulation. However, CleanSpark's ~20-25 EH/s scale trails Cango's 50 EH/s, showing that sustainability-focused growth moves slower than Cango's partnership-driven sprint.

Hut 8 (HUT)'s hybrid mining-HPC model generates 92.23% operating margins by diversifying into high-performance computing, reducing Bitcoin dependency. Cango's pure-play approach offers greater leveraged exposure to Bitcoin upside but leaves it vulnerable if mining economics deteriorate before AI compute revenue materializes. The company's AI vision aims to replicate Hut 8's diversification, but the two-to-three-year timeline creates a window of vulnerability.

Valuation Context: Discounted for Execution Risk

At $1.16 per share, Cango trades at a $419 million market capitalization and $782 million enterprise value, reflecting significant skepticism about the transformation's durability. The EV/Revenue multiple of 0.28x stands at a fraction of Marathon's 7.97x, Riot's 9.93x, and CleanSpark's 6.09x, suggesting the market prices Cango as a distressed asset rather than a growth story.

The disconnect becomes stark when considering Bitcoin holdings. With 6,959 BTC worth approximately $660 million at a $95,000 Bitcoin price, the company's digital asset holdings exceed its market capitalization. This implies the market assigns negative value to the 50 EH/s mining operation and AutoCango platform, likely reflecting concerns about execution risk, partnership dependency, and margin compression.

Profitability metrics appear distorted by one-time items. The -51.81% profit margin includes the Q2 China divestiture loss, while the 9.01% operating margin and 3.20% return on assets show the underlying business generates positive economics, albeit at lower efficiency than peers. The 11.01x EV/EBITDA ratio sits between Marathon's 6.49x and Riot's 12.45x, suggesting the market applies a moderate discount for Cango's unproven track record.

The balance sheet provides both support and concern. $44.9 million in cash appears thin for operating a 50 EH/s fleet, but $660 million in Bitcoin receivables and the BTC treasury provide substantial liquidity. The $405 million in related-party debt, while concerning, carries 7-8% interest rates and is structured as long-term, aligning with the company's capital-intensive mining strategy. Management prioritizes debt financing over equity due to a relatively low 0.59 debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting room for additional leverage to fund AI infrastructure development.

Conclusion: A Transformation Sprinting Toward an AI Future

Cango has executed the fastest mining scale-up in industry history, transforming from a legacy auto financier to a 50 EH/s Bitcoin miner in nine months through an asset-light partnership model. This speed created a $220.9 million quarterly revenue stream and a 6,959 Bitcoin treasury that exceeds the company's market capitalization, yet the market assigns little value to these assets, reflecting legitimate concerns about execution risk, margin compression, and pure-play concentration.

The investment thesis hinges on whether Cango can convert its mining infrastructure into a distributed AI compute network before Bitcoin mining economics deteriorate. Management's vision of flexible compute units for small and mid-sized enterprises, powered by green energy projects in Oman and Indonesia, offers a credible path to diversification that peers like Hut 8 have already begun traversing. However, the two-to-three-year timeline creates a window where the company remains fully exposed to Bitcoin price volatility and mining difficulty increases.

For investors, the critical variables are operational efficiency improvements that narrow the margin gap with Marathon and Riot, successful commissioning of green energy projects that reduce power costs, and measured progress toward AI compute revenue. If Cango can demonstrate that its asset-light model delivers not just speed but sustainable economics, the current valuation discount should close dramatically. If execution falters or Bitcoin prices disappoint, the concentrated exposure could overwhelm the balance sheet before diversification arrives.