DNUT - Fundamentals, Financials, History, and Analysis
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Krispy Kreme, Inc. (NASDAQ:DNUT) is a global sweet treat brand that has been delighting consumers with its iconic Original Glazed® doughnuts and other innovative offerings for decades. The company's transformational omni-channel strategy is driving impressive results, as it continues to expand its fresh doughnut availability around the world.

Financials

In the fiscal year ended December 29, 2024, Krispy Kreme reported annual revenue of $1,686,104,000 and a net loss of $37,925,000. While the company faced some headwinds, including the impact of inflation and a challenging consumer environment, its strategic initiatives have positioned it for long-term success.

Krispy Kreme's quarterly performance has been equally impressive. In the first quarter of fiscal 2024, the company reported organic revenue growth of 6.7% year-over-year, driven by strong consumer demand and increased sales through digital channels. Adjusted EBITDA grew 5.9% in the quarter, reflecting the company's ability to maintain positive operating leverage despite inflationary pressures.

Segment Performance

The U.S. segment, which accounts for the majority of Krispy Kreme's business, saw organic revenue growth of 7.4% in the first quarter. This was fueled by a 17.5% increase in points of access, as the company continued to expand its network of Doughnut Shops, Delivered Fresh Daily (DFD) outlets, and digital channels. The company's focus on improving the quality of its DFD points of access, including the addition of 96 secondary display cabinets in high-traffic grocery stores, has also contributed to the segment's strong performance.

The International segment, which now includes the company-owned operations in Canada and Japan, also delivered impressive results. Organic revenue grew 9.8% in the first quarter, with all markets contributing to the growth. The segment's adjusted EBITDA margin declined slightly to 16.5%, as the company worked to rationalize its manufacturing network in the U.K. to improve utilization.

The Market Development segment, which comprises the company's franchise operations, saw a 14.1% decline in organic revenue in the first quarter. This was primarily due to the timing of equipment sales to franchisees, which tend to be lower-margin. However, the segment's adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 900 basis points to 54.1%, reflecting the higher-margin nature of the franchise business.

Outlook

Looking ahead, Krispy Kreme is reaffirming its guidance for the full fiscal year 2024, with expectations of 6% to 8% organic revenue growth and 8% to 11% adjusted EBITDA expansion. This guidance reflects the company's confidence in its ability to drive increasingly profitable growth through the continued execution of its omni-channel strategy.

Recent Developments

A key component of this strategy is the company's recently announced partnership with McDonald's to bring Krispy Kreme doughnuts to more than 12,000 McDonald's restaurants in the U.S. by the end of 2026. This partnership is expected to contribute significantly to Krispy Kreme's long-term growth, with the company estimating that the addition of 14,000 to 15,000 points of access in the U.S. could result in $340 million to $430 million in annualized incremental revenue and $70 million to $100 million in additional adjusted EBITDA.

To support this rapid expansion, Krispy Kreme plans to add approximately 30 new production hubs and convert around 20 existing hubs to fully support its DFD network. This will allow the company to increase the utilization of its production capacity and improve distribution density, further enhancing the efficiency of its hub-and-spoke model.

In addition to the McDonald's partnership, Krispy Kreme is also focused on expanding its global presence, with plans to enter three to five new countries in fiscal 2024. The company recently announced agreements with franchise partners in Brazil and Germany, with shop openings expected in the future. This international expansion, combined with the company's success in driving digital sales, which now account for 23% of Doughnut Shop and Cookie Bakery sales (excluding DFD), positions Krispy Kreme for continued growth.

Liquidity

The company's strong liquidity position, with $33.1 million in cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2024, and access to its $300 million revolving credit facility, provides the financial flexibility to execute on its strategic initiatives. Krispy Kreme's balance sheet remains healthy, with a leverage ratio of 3.75x as of the end of the first quarter, well within the covenants of its 2023 Facility.

Risks and Challenges

While the company faces some risks, including the potential for continued macroeconomic uncertainty and the need to effectively manage its rapid expansion, Krispy Kreme's proven ability to adapt its business model and capitalize on emerging opportunities positions it well for long-term success. The company's focus on delivering fresh, innovative doughnuts to consumers through its expanding omni-channel network has resonated with customers, driving strong brand engagement and loyalty.

Conclusion

Overall, Krispy Kreme's first quarter results and reaffirmed guidance for fiscal 2024 demonstrate the strength of its strategic initiatives and the company's ability to navigate a challenging environment. With its accelerating omni-channel expansion, including the transformative McDonald's partnership, Krispy Kreme is poised to continue delighting consumers and delivering value for shareholders in the years ahead.

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