FICO - Fundamentals, Financials, History, and Analysis
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Introduction

Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) is a global leader in the realm of analytics and decision-making software. Founded in 1956, the company has spent decades honing its expertise in predictive analytics, data science, and innovative technologies that empower businesses and individuals to make smarter decisions. With a rich history of pioneering breakthroughs, FICO stands at the forefront of the industry, continually expanding the boundaries of what's possible in the world of applied intelligence.

Innovation and Patents

At the heart of FICO's success is its unwavering commitment to innovation. The company's impressive patent portfolio, which currently stands at 226 active U.S. and foreign patents, is a testament to its relentless pursuit of groundbreaking advancements. In the past year alone, FICO has been awarded 12 new patents, further solidifying its position as a leader in fraud detection, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and cybersecurity.

Impact on Financial Services

FICO's impact on the financial services industry is undeniable. The company's flagship product, the FICO® Score, has become the de facto standard for measuring consumer creditworthiness in the United States. This innovative credit scoring model has been adopted by the majority of leading banks, credit card issuers, and mortgage lenders, serving as a critical tool in their decision-making processes. The recent launch of FICO® Score 10 T, which incorporates alternative data sources to enhance predictive power, has been warmly received by the industry, with over 261 billion in annualized mortgage originations and $1.43 trillion in eligible mortgage portfolio servicing having signed up to utilize the new model.

Diverse Industry Solutions

Beyond the financial sector, FICO's software solutions are transforming decision-making across a diverse range of industries. From fraud detection and customer engagement to marketing optimization and supply chain management, the company's analytics-driven platforms are empowering organizations to uncover new opportunities, make more informed choices, and drive better business outcomes.

Adaptability and Flexibility

One of the key factors underlying FICO's success is its ability to adapt to the evolving needs of its clients. The company's software-as-a-service (SaaS) and on-premises offerings provide flexibility, allowing customers to seamlessly integrate FICO's cutting-edge technologies into their existing infrastructure. This agility has been particularly valuable in the face of rapidly changing market dynamics, where organizations must be equipped to respond swiftly to emerging challenges and opportunities.

Historical Journey

FICO's journey began with the development of the first credit scoring system, which revolutionized the lending industry by providing a standardized, data-driven way to evaluate credit risk. This innovation quickly became the industry standard and is now used by the vast majority of lenders in the United States. Over the decades, FICO expanded its analytics and decision management solutions into other industries beyond lending, including insurance, retail, and telecommunications. The company faced challenges in the 1990s and early 2000s as it navigated the rise of credit bureaus and competing scoring models, but it was able to maintain its position as the market leader in credit scoring. In the 2010s, FICO made strategic investments to expand its software and analytics capabilities, moving beyond its core credit scoring business into areas like fraud detection, customer management, and marketing. This diversification helped the company weather the Great Recession and positioned it for continued growth in the years that followed.

Responsible AI and Recognition

FICO's commitment to innovation extends beyond its product portfolio. The company has also established itself as a thought leader in the realm of responsible AI, leveraging blockchain technology to ensure the transparency and ethical governance of its advanced analytical models. This emphasis on trustworthy and transparent decision-making has earned FICO recognition from industry peers, as evidenced by its recent accolades, including the Tech of the Future Blockchain and Tokenization Award and the Software Category Transformative Product Award.

Business Segments

FICO operates through two main business segments: Scores and Software.

Scores Segment

The Scores segment includes FICO's business-to-business (B2B) scoring solutions and services, as well as business-to-consumer (B2C) scoring solutions. During the quarter ended December 31, 2024, the Scores segment generated revenues of $235.68 million, a 23% increase from the same period in the prior year. This growth was primarily driven by an increase of $42 million in B2B scores revenue, attributed to higher unit prices and an increase in the volume of mortgage originations. The B2C revenue also increased by $1.6 million. Segment operating income for Scores was $203.77 million, an increase of 21% year-over-year, with the segment's operating margin decreasing slightly from 88% to 86% due to an increase in marketing expenses.

Software Segment

The Software segment includes pre-configured analytic and decision management solutions, the FICO Platform, and stand-alone analytic and decisioning software. During the quarter ended December 31, 2024, the Software segment generated revenues of $204.29 million, an 8% increase from the same period in the prior year. This growth was primarily driven by a $17.34 million, or 10%, increase in on-premises and SaaS software revenue. However, professional services revenue decreased by $3 million, or 14%, as FICO continues to emphasize higher-margin software over professional services. Segment operating income for Software was $60.74 million, a 10% increase year-over-year, with the segment's operating margin relatively stable at 30%.

Financial Performance

For the most recent quarter ended December 31, 2024, FICO reported strong financial results:

- Revenue: $439.97 million, representing a 15% year-over-year growth - Net income: $152.53 million - Operating Cash Flow (OCF): $193.997 million - Free Cash Flow (FCF): $193.156 million

The increase in revenue was primarily driven by strong performance in the Scores segment, with B2B revenue up 30% and B2C revenue up 3%. This was partially offset by an 8% increase in Software segment revenue, which was hindered by foreign exchange rate impact.

Liquidity and Capital Structure

As of December 31, 2024, FICO's financial position remained strong:

- Cash and cash equivalents: $184.25 million - Unsecured revolving line of credit: $600 million - Unsecured term loans: $300 million and $450 million, both maturing on August 19, 2026 - Current ratio: 1.80 - Quick ratio: 1.80

These figures indicate that FICO maintains a healthy liquidity position, providing the company with financial flexibility to pursue growth opportunities and navigate potential market challenges.

Geographic Performance

While specific geographic breakdowns were not provided, it appears that FICO operates primarily in the Americas region, which accounted for 87% of total revenue in the most recent quarter. This concentration suggests potential opportunities for expansion in other global markets.

Future Outlook

The future for FICO looks incredibly promising. With a robust pipeline of innovative solutions, a growing customer base, and a relentless pursuit of technological advancements, the company is poised to continue shaping the landscape of decision-making for years to come. As organizations across the globe seek to harness the power of data and analytics to drive their success, FICO stands as a trusted partner, delivering the tools and insights necessary to navigate an increasingly complex business environment.

FICO has reiterated its fiscal 2025 guidance, maintaining confidence in achieving its targets based on the strong Q1 2025 results. The company reported revenues of $440 million for Q1 2025, up 15% year-over-year, with GAAP net income of $153 million (up 26%) and GAAP EPS of $6.14 (up 28%). Non-GAAP net income was $144 million (up 19%), with non-GAAP EPS of $5.79 (up 20%). Free cash flow for the quarter was $187 million, a 55% increase from the prior year period. FICO expects its net effective tax rate for the full year to be around 22% and the recurring tax rate to be around 26%.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Fair Isaac Corporation's legacy as a pioneer in the analytics industry, coupled with its unwavering commitment to innovation and its ability to adapt to changing market dynamics, positions the company as a formidable force in the realm of decision-making software. As the world becomes increasingly data-driven, FICO's solutions will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in empowering businesses and individuals to make more informed, impactful, and responsible choices. The company's strong financial performance, robust product portfolio, and strategic focus on high-margin offerings provide a solid foundation for continued growth and success in the years to come.

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