Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU)

Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Structural Cost Advantage as a Moat: Nu's sub-$1 cost to serve per active customer isn't just a metric—it's a weapon that enables profitable service to underbanked segments traditional banks cannot touch, creating a self-reinforcing flywheel where lower costs drive customer acquisition, which drives data, which drives better risk models, which drives even lower costs.

• Mexico's Inflection Point Validates the Model: With 13 million customers, ARPAC already nearing Brazil's levels at $12.50, and a newly obtained banking license, Mexico is transitioning from a growth investment to a profit engine. The 438% deposit growth and 70% credit card expansion in 2024 prove the playbook works, and management's explicit statement that "if we wanted to be profitable in Mexico, we would be profitable already" signals deliberate market share capture before monetization.

• AI-First Transformation Creates Asymmetric Upside: The development of "nuFormer"—a proprietary AI model trained on 600 billion tokens—has already delivered 3x better performance than typical ML upgrades in credit limit policies. This isn't incremental improvement; it's the foundation for Act 3 of Nu's strategy: a global AI-native banking model that the market hasn't priced in, as evidenced by the stock trading on Latin America fundamentals while management files for a U.S. national bank charter.

• Credit Quality Discipline Amid Rapid Growth: Despite expanding unsecured loan originations by 64% YoY and growing the secured lending portfolio 615% in 2024, Nu maintains loss rates that "consistently outperform the industry" through a "paranoid focus" on stress-testing every cohort at 2x loss scenarios. This matters because it demonstrates that scale isn't coming at the expense of underwriting standards—a critical differentiator from fintech peers who've stumbled on credit.

• The PIX Financing Pause Reveals Principled Capital Allocation: Management's deliberate decision to temper PIX financing growth despite "remarkably positive" profitability and strong demand demonstrates a long-term orientation that prioritizes customer NPS over short-term earnings. This choice, while temporarily limiting revenue, builds durable customer relationships and reduces tail risk—exactly the discipline required to navigate emerging market credit cycles.

Setting the Scene: The Digital Banking Revolution's Missing Link

Nu Holdings Ltd., founded in 2013 in São Paulo, Brazil, began with a simple but radical thesis: a digital banking model built cloud-native from day one could reach more people, offer superior service, operate at lower cost, and achieve higher profitability than traditional banks burdened by legacy infrastructure and branch networks. This wasn't a marginal improvement hypothesis—it was a complete structural reimagining of how consumer banking could work in markets where financial inclusion remained abysmally low and incumbent banks enjoyed comfortable oligopolies.

The company spent its first decade proving this thesis primarily in Brazil, building a platform where technology and data serve as the strongest competitive advantages rather than physical presence or historical brand equity. Today, Nu serves over 60% of Brazil's adult population, making it the largest retail banking franchise by customer count and, by management's estimate, the largest player in the SME segment by number of accounts. This scale matters because it transforms Nu from a niche disruptor into the establishment—except an establishment built on an entirely different cost structure and value proposition.

Industry structure in Latin America creates the perfect conditions for Nu's model. Traditional banks operate with cost-to-serve metrics that are orders of magnitude higher, enabling Nu to profitably serve segments incumbents ignore. In Mexico, where financial penetration remains far below Brazil's levels, Nu has already captured 14% of the adult population with 13 million customers. In Colombia, approaching 4 million customers just two quarters after launching its checking account, Nu has already become one of the top five financial institutions for demand deposits among individuals. This isn't just market share gain—it's market creation, bringing previously unbanked populations into the formal financial system.

The broader trend of digitalization and financial inclusion provides a multi-decade tailwind. As cash economies transition to digital payments and smartphone penetration reaches saturation, Nu's mobile-first model becomes the default entry point for financial services. The company's "Three Act story," articulated in late 2024, frames this perfectly: Act 1 builds the largest retail banking franchise in Latin America (consuming over 90% of current resources), Act 2 expands beyond financial services into marketplace, travel, and telecom verticals, and Act 3 envisions a global AI-driven digital banking model. The market currently values Nu on Act 1 execution, creating potential optionality for Acts 2 and 3 that isn't reflected in the stock price.

Technology, Products, and Strategic Differentiation: The AI-Native Banking Stack

Nu's core technological advantage begins with its cloud-native architecture, built on modern infrastructure that enables rapid product development, seamless scaling, and data integration across geographies. But the real moat lies in the company's evolution toward an "AI-first" platform, centered on "nuFormer"—a proprietary approach for building large generalizable models with 330 million parameters trained on approximately 600 billion tokens. This represents an unprecedented scale of data usage in financial services, and the results are already materializing.

The initial deployment of nuFormer enabled a major upgrade to credit card limit policies in Brazil, allowing Nu to "meaningfully increase limits for eligible customers while maintaining the same overall risk appetite." This demonstrates that AI isn't just a cost-saving tool—it's a revenue accelerator that expands addressable customer segments without increasing credit losses. The models delivered an average improvement about 3x higher than typical successful ML upgrades, and management is scaling this innovation beyond Brazil into Mexico and across functions from personalization to fraud detection to collections. This creates a compounding advantage: better models drive better customer experiences, which drive more data, which drives even better models.

The product ecosystem extends far beyond traditional banking, creating multiple vectors for customer engagement and monetization. NuMarketplace had over 1 million customers shopping throughout 2024, NuTravel enables seamless trip planning within the app with a best-price guarantee, and NuCel—an MVNO service launched in partnership with Claro (CLAR.MX) in Brazil—represents Nu's entry into telecom. These aren't random adjacencies; they're logical extensions of the "Money Platform" strategy that broadens the addressable market and empowers customers to optimize spending. Each new vertical increases switching costs and provides additional data streams to feed the AI models.

The cost structure remains the ultimate differentiator. At a cost to serve below $1 per active customer, Nu operates at a level that makes traditional banks' branch networks economically obsolete. This isn't a temporary advantage from being digital—it's a permanent structural edge that improves with scale. As management noted, "We do believe that we need to be the best place for our customers across Latin America to receive payments, make payments and store value." Achieving this at sub-$1 cost creates a defensive moat that competitors cannot cross without abandoning their existing infrastructure.

Financial Performance & Segment Dynamics: Evidence of a Scalable Machine

Nu's financial results read as a case study in disciplined scaling. In Q3 2025, the company reported record revenues of over $4 billion and net income of $783 million, with gross profit reaching $1.8 billion (up 32% YoY FX-neutral) and gross profit margin expanding to 43.5%. The cost-to-income ratio decreased to 28%, demonstrating that growth isn't sacrificing efficiency. This performance validates the core thesis that Nu's digital model delivers superior economics at scale.

Brazil: The Mature Profit Engine
Brazil's standalone metrics in Q1 2025 tell the story of a fully optimized banking franchise: 5% gross profit market share, 21.8% net interest margin, and 27% annualized ROE. Management's commentary that "having reached scale, revenue per customer has become the main growth driver" signals a critical inflection. The focus has shifted from customer acquisition to deepening engagement and optimizing risk-adjusted returns. NIMs expanded quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025 and are expected to continue growing as the loan-to-deposit ratio increases, demonstrating that even in a mature market, Nu can expand profitability through balance sheet optimization.

The credit portfolio diversification in Brazil showcases intelligent risk management. Secured lending grew 133% YoY in Q3 2025, accounting for 35% of total balances, while unsecured loans grew 63% YoY. The FGTS loan portfolio, where Nu captured over 30% market share in new originations, grew 615% in 2024. When management notes that new regulations will reduce FGTS originations but be "offset by public payroll loans," it reveals a hedged strategy that doesn't rely on any single product. The private payroll loan opportunity—where Nu aims to be the "lowest cost manufacturer"—represents a direct attack on Brazil's top three incumbent banks, who historically dominated this segment through B2B relationships. Nu's digital distribution model and data advantages could capture meaningful share in a $100+ billion market.

Mexico: The Growth Accelerator
Mexico's trajectory validates the geographic expansion playbook. With 13 million customers (14% of adults), ARPAC at $12.50 already nearing Brazil's levels, and cost to serve below $1, the unit economics are "as compelling, if not more compelling than Brazil's," according to management. The 438% deposit growth in 2024 and 70% credit card customer expansion demonstrate rapid product adoption. The Q1 2025 banking license unlocks personal loans and other products, enabling the same cross-sell flywheel that drove Brazilian profitability.

Management's explicit statement that "if we wanted to be profitable in Mexico, we would be profitable already" is crucial. It signals that the current investment phase—temporarily pressuring NIMs through deposit yield optimization—is a deliberate choice to maximize long-term market share rather than a structural limitation. With loan-to-deposit ratio at only 15% in Q3 2025, Mexico has enormous balance sheet capacity to fund credit growth. The NIM compression in Mexico and Colombia from building deposit franchises mirrors Brazil's early years, suggesting a repeatable pattern where short-term margin sacrifice creates long-term funding advantages.

Colombia: The Emerging Foundation
Colombia's progress—approaching 4 million customers and $1.3 billion in deposits just two quarters after launching its checking account—demonstrates Nu's ability to replicate its model quickly. While smaller in absolute terms, Colombia's rapid deposit accumulation (placing Nu among the top five institutions for individual demand deposits) proves the brand resonance and product-market fit extend beyond Brazil and Mexico. Management expects Colombia's NIM to be lower than Mexico's but still above their 30% ROE threshold, indicating disciplined expansion rather than growth at any cost.

Credit Quality: The Paranoid Focus
Nu's approach to credit risk management sets it apart from fintech peers who've stumbled on underwriting. The company operates on two pillars: "we always assume that the future will be worse than the past" and "every cohort of unsecured credit has to be NPV positive even if losses go up 2x." This stress-testing framework explains how Nu can grow unsecured loans 64% YoY while maintaining industry-leading delinquency rates. The shift toward second loans to existing customers—who have already proven repayment behavior—further de-risks the portfolio.

The deliberate tempering of PIX financing growth in late 2024, despite "remarkably positive" profitability, reveals management's long-term orientation. They identified "second-order effects on customer engagement and NPS" that could damage lifetime value, choosing to optimize the user experience before resuming growth in Q1 2025. This discipline highlights that Nu won't sacrifice credit quality or customer satisfaction for short-term earnings—a critical differentiator in emerging markets where credit cycles can be severe.

Outlook, Management Guidance, and Execution Risk

Management frames 2025 as "another pivotal year of investment" while maintaining ROE above 30% and pushing the efficiency ratio down. This balancing act—aggressive growth with disciplined profitability—defines the execution challenge. The guidance reveals several key assumptions that underpin the investment thesis.

Brazil's Re-leveraging Story
In Brazil, management expects NIMs to "remain stable to growing" as the loan-to-deposit ratio increases. This is crucial because it signals that the core market hasn't saturated; there's still balance sheet capacity to fund credit growth at attractive spreads. The evolution of the asset mix toward higher-yielding products while maintaining risk discipline should drive further NIM expansion. The implication for investors is that Brazil can continue funding group-level profitability while Mexico and Colombia scale, reducing overall risk.

Mexico's Profitability Inflection
For Mexico, management is clear that NIMs will be "tighter in the next few quarters" until funding costs optimize and LDR improves. However, they also state that Mexico's profitability "is expected to converge towards Brazil's, potentially even exceeding it." This framing suggests the current investment phase is temporary. The 15% LDR in Mexico versus Brazil's much higher ratio represents a $30+ billion incremental lending opportunity as deposits get deployed into credit. The key execution variable is how quickly management can ramp the loan book without compromising credit metrics.

AI as the Next Growth Vector
The AI-first strategy represents the most significant potential upside not reflected in current valuations. Management is "scaling this innovation beyond Brazil, already in motion in Mexico and extending them across every part of Nubank." The nuFormer model's 3x performance improvement in credit limits is just the beginning. As AI enhances personalization, cross-sell, fraud detection, and collections, it should drive both revenue per customer higher and cost to serve lower, expanding the already wide competitive moat.

International Expansion Optionality
The September 2025 filing for a U.S. national bank charter, while described as "transformational optionality" that "could unlock new opportunities over time," remains a long-term call option. Management emphasizes that over 90% of resources remain focused on Act 1 (Latin America), but the U.S. filing signals ambition beyond the current geographic footprint. For investors, this represents asymmetric upside: the stock is valued on Latin America fundamentals, but success in the U.S. would open a market 10x larger. The risk is that distraction from core markets could slow execution, but the measured approach—starting small and scaling with conviction—mirrors the successful Mexico playbook.

Risks and Asymmetries: What Could Break the Thesis

Macroeconomic Deterioration in Core Markets
Nu's entire model assumes continued credit cycle stability in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. Management's "paranoid focus" on stress-testing is reassuring, but the reality is that emerging markets face volatile economic conditions. If inflation spikes, unemployment rises, or currency devaluation accelerates, credit losses could exceed the 2x stress scenario. The risk is asymmetric because Nu's unsecured loan portfolio has grown to 35% of balances, and while secured lending provides some buffer, a severe downturn could overwhelm even conservative provisioning. Investors should monitor early-stage delinquency trends and management's commentary on cohort performance for signs of deterioration.

Regulatory Interventions
Two specific regulatory risks could materially impact revenue. In Mexico, proposed caps on card interchange fees could reduce credit card profitability and "inhibit financial inclusion and credit deepening" by making "the unit economics of new-to-credit customers less compelling." Given that credit cards are central to Mexico's growth strategy, any fee caps would directly hit ARPAC and slow customer acquisition. In Brazil, new FGTS loan regulations will reduce originations, though management expects this to be offset by public payroll loan growth. The risk is that regulatory changes could accelerate, affecting multiple products simultaneously and constraining Nu's ability to price for risk.

Private Payroll Loan Collateral Quality
Nu's expansion into private payroll loans—a market historically dominated by Brazil's top three banks—faces execution risk around collateral quality. Management candidly admitted they "haven't been able to raise our comfort levels to adequate levels with respect to the quality of the collateral," noting industry first-payment defaults of 10-18%. While Nu is "more cautious than some of the other players," the risk remains that aggressive expansion could lead to higher-than-expected losses. This is significant because private payroll loans represent a massive TAM that Nu needs to access to sustain growth, but missteps here could damage the pristine credit quality track record.

Competitive Response from Incumbents and New Entrants
Traditional banks like Itaú are accelerating digital transformation, while global neobanks like Revolut are entering Brazil in 2025. The "battle of titans" narrative suggests intensifying competition for digital-first customers. While Nu's cost advantage and scale provide defensive moats, incumbents could engage in price wars or offer subsidized products to defend market share. The risk is margin compression if competition forces Nu to reduce pricing or increase marketing spend. However, Nu's sub-$1 cost to serve means it can withstand price competition better than most, and its data advantages in underwriting create switching costs that pure payment players cannot match.

Execution Risk in AI and International Expansion
The AI-first transformation and U.S. bank charter filing represent significant execution challenges. Building nuFormer required training on 600 billion tokens—an unprecedented scale that must be maintained and expanded. If AI model performance degrades or fails to scale across geographies, the expected efficiency gains may not materialize. Similarly, the U.S. expansion, while optional, could distract management from the core Latin America opportunity. The asymmetry here is that success creates massive upside, but failure carries limited downside since these are long-term investments not yet priced into the stock.

Valuation Context: Pricing the Efficiency Arbitrage

At $17.39 per share, Nu trades at a P/E ratio of 33.44 and price-to-book of 7.98, with an enterprise value of $74.36 billion (7.75x revenue). These multiples reflect a premium for growth, but the underlying metrics justify the valuation when viewed through the lens of efficiency and scalability.

Cash Flow and Profitability Metrics
Nu's price-to-operating cash flow ratio of 20.86 and price-to-free cash flow of 22.99 are more reasonable than the P/E suggests, reflecting strong cash conversion. With a 27.80% ROE, 39.76% profit margin, and 58.21% operating margin, Nu demonstrates software-like economics applied to banking. The absence of a payout ratio (0%) signals that all capital is being reinvested into growth, appropriate for a company in hyper-expansion mode.

Peer Comparison
Relative to competitors, Nu's valuation appears justified by superior growth and margins. PagSeguro (PAGS) trades at 7.76x earnings but with only 14% revenue growth and 11.35% profit margins—fractions of Nu's performance. StoneCo (STNE) shows negative profit margins (-7.76%) despite similar geographic focus. MercadoLibre (MELI) trades at 50.69x earnings with lower operating margins (9.77%) but higher ROE (40.65% vs. Nu's 27.80%, though MELI's includes e-commerce dilution). Itaú (ITUB), at 10.26x earnings, grows at single digits with 21.06% ROE, reflecting mature bank economics.

The key differentiator is Nu's combination of 40%+ revenue growth (FX-neutral) with 30%+ ROE and sub-$1 cost to serve. No peer matches this profile. While some analysts argue the stock is "stretched" at 16x 2026 EPS, this ignores the AI optionality and international expansion not yet in earnings forecasts. The market is valuing Nu as a Latin American digital bank, not as a potential global AI-native platform—a mispricing that creates upside if Act 3 materializes.

Balance Sheet Strength
With $4 billion in excess capital across geographies and the holding company, Nu has ample firepower to fund growth, withstand credit cycles, and invest in AI. The loan-to-deposit ratio in Mexico at 15% and improving funding costs (89% of interbank rates in Q3 2025) demonstrate a scalable deposit franchise that reduces reliance on wholesale funding. This is significant because it provides stable, low-cost capital to fund credit expansion while maintaining liquidity buffers appropriate for emerging market volatility.

Conclusion: The AI-Native Banking Platform in Disguise

Nu Holdings has built more than Latin America's largest digital bank—it has constructed an AI-native financial infrastructure that operates at a structural cost advantage traditional incumbents cannot replicate. The sub-$1 cost to serve, combined with nuFormer's 3x AI performance improvements and a deposit franchise growing 34% YoY, creates a self-reinforcing moat where scale begets data, data begets better models, and better models beget lower costs and higher returns.

The investment thesis hinges on two variables: execution of the Mexico profitability inflection and realization of AI-driven efficiency gains. Mexico's ARPAC approaching Brazil's levels while cost to serve remains below $1 proves the model is transferable. The AI strategy, while early, has already demonstrated tangible results in credit underwriting that should expand margins and reduce risk-adjusted losses as it scales across geographies and products.

Risks remain material—emerging market macro volatility, regulatory interventions, and competitive pressure could all compress margins or slow growth. However, management's demonstrated discipline in tempering PIX financing growth despite profitability, stress-testing every credit cohort at 2x loss scenarios, and maintaining excess capital buffers suggests a team that understands the difference between growth and reckless expansion.

The market values Nu on Act 1 performance, but Acts 2 and 3 represent free optionality. At 33x earnings, investors are paying for Latin America dominance while getting a potential global AI banking platform at no extra cost. If Nu can replicate its efficiency arbitrage in the U.S. or leverage AI to dismantle traditional banking cost structures globally, today's valuation will appear conservative. The stock's path will be decided by whether management can maintain credit quality and cost discipline while scaling the AI flywheel—a challenge they've met consistently for a decade.