PAG - Fundamentals, Financials, History, and Analysis
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Business Overview and Diversification

Penske Automotive Group (PAG) is a diversified international transportation services company and one of the world's premier automotive and commercial truck retailers. With a vast network of dealerships, distribution operations, and strategic investments, Penske has established itself as a leading player in the rapidly evolving mobility landscape.

Penske's operations are organized into four reportable segments: Retail Automotive, Retail Commercial Truck, Other, and Non-Automotive Investments. This diversification has been a key differentiator, allowing the company to weather industry fluctuations and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

The company was founded in 1990 when Roger Penske acquired the former United Auto Group, Inc. Since then, PAG has grown through strategic acquisitions, expanding its footprint and diversifying its operations. In 2014, PAG acquired Premier Truck Group (PTG), making it one of the largest retailers of commercial trucks in North America. This acquisition diversified PAG's business beyond just retail automotive dealerships. In 2017, PAG expanded its international presence by acquiring a number of automotive dealerships in the U.K.

The Retail Automotive segment is the backbone of Penske's business, generating 85.5% of total revenue and 84.6% of gross profit in the first nine months of 2024. Penske operates 360 retail automotive franchised dealerships, with a strong presence in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Australia. The company's brand mix is weighted toward premium brands, which account for 72% of retail automotive revenue. As of September 30, 2024, 149 dealerships are located in the U.S. and 211 are located outside of the U.S., primarily in the U.K. Additionally, PAG operates 16 used vehicle dealerships, with six in the U.S., nine in the U.K., and one in Australia.

During the nine months ended September 30, 2024, PAG's retail automotive segment retailed and wholesaled, including agency units, more than 450,000 vehicles. New vehicle sales revenue was $8.69 billion, with a 9.6% gross margin, while used vehicle sales revenue was $6.74 billion, with a 5.3% gross margin. Finance and insurance revenue was $607.8 million, and service and parts revenue was $2.28 billion, with a 58.1% gross margin.

The Retail Commercial Truck segment, operating under the Premier Truck Group (PTG) brand, is another key pillar of Penske's diversified business model. PTG is one of the largest Freightliner and Western Star truck retailers in North America, with 46 locations across 11 U.S. states and two Canadian provinces. During the nine months ended September 30, 2024, PAG's retail commercial truck segment retailed and wholesaled 16,380 new and used trucks. New commercial truck retail sales revenue was $1.86 billion, with a 6.4% gross margin, while used commercial truck retail sales revenue was $171.2 million, with a 6.7% gross margin. Service and parts revenue was $675.6 million, with a 43.0% gross margin.

Penske's Other segment encompasses its commercial vehicle distribution and power systems operations in Australia and New Zealand, where the company is the exclusive importer and distributor of Western Star, MAN, and Dennis Eagle vehicles, as well as various diesel and gas engines and power systems. During the nine months ended September 30, 2024, the Commercial Vehicle Distribution and Other segment generated $553.8 million in revenue and $132.4 million in gross profit, representing 2.4% and 3.5% of PAG's total, respectively.

The Non-Automotive Investments segment represents Penske's 28.9% ownership stake in Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS), a leading provider of full-service truck leasing, truck rental, and logistics services. PTS is a strategic investment that diversifies Penske's revenue streams and provides exposure to the growing commercial transportation industry. During the nine months ended September 30, 2024, PAG recorded $145.7 million in equity earnings from its investment in PTS, representing 15.8% of its earnings before taxes.

Financial Performance and Resilience

Penske's financial performance has been marked by consistent profitability and resilience in the face of industry challenges. In the first nine months of 2024, the company generated $22.7 billion in total revenue and $3.8 billion in gross profit, with the Retail Automotive and Retail Commercial Truck segments contributing the majority of these figures.

Financials

For the most recent fiscal year, PAG reported revenue of $29.53 billion, net income of $1.05 billion, operating cash flow of $1.09 billion, and free cash flow of $718.30 million. In the most recent quarter (Q3 2024), the company achieved revenue of $7,590,800,000, a 1.9% year-over-year increase, with net income of $226,100,000, operating cash flow of $271,000,000, and free cash flow of $190,100,000. The revenue growth was primarily driven by a 14% increase in service and parts revenue to a record $778 million. However, net income decreased by 3.6% due to the impact of stop sales of certain vehicles and the residual impact from the CDK Cybersecurity Incident, which affected the retail commercial truck business.

In terms of geographic distribution, 61% of revenue was derived in North America, 30% in the U.K., and the remaining 9% came from other international markets.

Despite ongoing supply chain disruptions, inflation, and economic headwinds, Penske has maintained a strong balance sheet and liquidity position. As of September 30, 2024, the company had $92 million in cash and $1.7 billion in available liquidity under its credit facilities. Penske's debt-to-total capitalization ratio stood at 26.4%, and its leverage ratio was a manageable 1.3 times.

Liquidity

PAG's liquidity position remains robust, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.16. The company had $91.90 million in cash and significant available credit lines, including $1.2 billion under the U.S. credit agreement, $139.00 million under the U.K. credit agreement, CAD 29.00 million ($21.40 million) under the Canada credit agreement, AU 33.50 million ($23.20 million) under the Australia credit agreement, and $130.70 million under the revolving mortgage facility through Toyota Motor Credit Corporation in the U.S. The current ratio stands at 0.91, while the quick ratio is 0.20.

The company's diversified business model and disciplined capital allocation have enabled it to navigate these challenges effectively. Penske has continued to invest in strategic acquisitions, with $2.1 billion in estimated annualized revenues added through acquisitions in the first nine months of 2024. Additionally, the company has returned capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, demonstrating its commitment to creating long-term value.

Navigating Industry Disruptions

Penske's resilience is particularly evident in its ability to navigate the evolving automotive and commercial truck industries. The company has proactively adapted to industry trends, such as the transition to electric vehicles and the shift toward agency sales models in certain European markets.

In the UK, Penske has successfully transitioned some of its dealerships to an agency model, where the company receives a fee for facilitating the sale of new vehicles rather than holding inventory. This model has allowed Penske to mitigate the risks associated with vehicle inventory while maintaining a strong presence in the market.

The company has also been at the forefront of the electric vehicle (EV) revolution. In the US, EV sales represented 8.1% of the overall market in the first nine months of 2024, up from 7.5% in the same period last year. Penske has adapted its sales and service operations to cater to this growing demand, investing in the necessary infrastructure and training to support the transition.

Moreover, Penske's diversification into the commercial truck and power systems segments has provided additional avenues for growth and resilience. The company's Premier Truck Group division has navigated the challenges of the freight market recession, leveraging its strong customer relationships and operational efficiency to maintain profitability.

Penske's Penske Australia business has also demonstrated its agility, capitalizing on the demand for commercial vehicles, engines, and power systems in the Australian and New Zealand markets. The division's focus on service and parts, which account for approximately 70% of its gross profit, has been a key contributor to its financial performance.

Outlook and Conclusion

Looking ahead, Penske is well-positioned to navigate the ongoing industry disruptions and capitalize on emerging opportunities. The company's diversified business model, strong balance sheet, and disciplined capital allocation strategy provide a solid foundation for continued growth and resilience.

In the third quarter of 2024, PAG generated $304 million in income before taxes, $226 million in net income, and earnings per share of $3.39. Overall revenues increased 2% to a third-quarter record of $7.6 billion, including a 14% increase in service and parts to a record $778 million. New unit sales increased 5%, while same-store new units declined 2%. Used units declined 13% due to the transition of CarShop locations to Sytner Select dealerships.

Gross profit per new vehicle retail remained strong at $5,072, down $230 sequentially but still nearly $2,000 higher than in 2019. Gross profit per used vehicle retail increased $318 quarter-over-quarter and was up $60 sequentially. Variable gross profit per unit increased $8 sequentially.

Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS) earnings of $219 million in Q3 increased sequentially by $27 million but were down $81 million or 27% compared to Q3 last year.

While PAG did not provide specific numerical guidance for the future, management expressed confidence in the business model and performance, noting their strong balance sheet, cash flow, and capital allocation flexibility. The company plans to continue pursuing acquisitions as part of its capital allocation strategy and returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. PAG has increased the dividend 4 times so far in 2024, from $0.79 per share to the current $1.19 per share.

As the automotive and commercial transportation industries continue to evolve, Penske's ability to adapt and innovate will be crucial to its long-term success. The company's investments in electric vehicles, agency sales models, and strategic acquisitions demonstrate its commitment to staying ahead of the curve and delivering value to its shareholders.

Despite the challenges faced by the industry, Penske's track record of consistent profitability, financial discipline, and strategic foresight make it a compelling investment opportunity for those seeking exposure to the dynamic transportation services sector.

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