TLYS - Fundamentals, Financials, History, and Analysis
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Tilly's, Inc. (NYSE:TLYS) is a leading destination specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men, young women, boys, and girls. The company operates 246 stores across 33 states as of the first quarter of fiscal 2024, with an extensive assortment of iconic global, emerging, and proprietary brands rooted in an active and social lifestyle.

Business Overview

Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, Tilly's has demonstrated resilience and a steadfast commitment to improving its business for the long term. In the first quarter of fiscal 2024, the company reported total net sales of $115.9 million, a decrease of 6.3% compared to the same period last year. This decline was primarily driven by a 9.4% decrease in total comparable net sales, including a 8.6% decrease in physical stores and a 10.8% decrease in e-commerce. The company ended the quarter with 246 total stores, a net decrease of two stores compared to the same period last year.

Financials

Gross profit, including buying, distribution, and occupancy expenses, was flat at 21% of net sales. While product margins improved by 130 basis points due to a lower markdown rate and improved initial markups, this was offset by the deleverage of buying, distribution, and occupancy costs, despite these costs being $0.8 million lower than the prior year period.

Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased by $1.9 million, or 4.0%, primarily due to a $1.5 million increase in non-cash store asset impairment charges and a $1.0 million increase in store payroll and related benefits costs. The company's average hourly rate per store payroll rose 5% over the prior year and was 31% higher than in the pre-pandemic fiscal 2019.

As a result of the decreased net sales and increased SG&A expenses, Tilly's reported a pretax loss of $19.6 million, or 16.9% of net sales, compared to a pretax loss of $16.2 million, or 13.1% of net sales, in the prior year period. The company's income tax benefit was negligible at $13,000, or 0.1% of the pretax loss, due to the continuing impact of a full, non-cash deferred tax asset valuation allowance. On a non-GAAP basis, excluding the valuation allowance, the company's income tax benefit would have been approximately $5.2 million.

Net loss for the first quarter of fiscal 2024 was $19.6 million, or $0.65 per share, compared to a net loss of $12.0 million, or $0.40 per share, in the prior year period. On a non-GAAP basis, assuming a normalized effective income tax rate of 26.3% in the absence of the valuation allowance, the company's net loss would have been $14.5 million, or $0.48 per share, the exact middle of its original outlook range for the first quarter.

Liquidity

Tilly's ended the first quarter of fiscal 2024 with total cash and marketable securities of $68 million and no debt outstanding under its $65 million asset-backed credit facility, compared to $93 million and no debt at the end of the first quarter of the prior year. Total inventories were up 1.8% at the end of the first quarter, but the company ended the latest week with total inventories down 3% versus the comparable week last year.

Outlook

For the second quarter of fiscal 2024, Tilly's currently estimates that its total net sales will be in the range of approximately $160 million to $165 million, translating to a comparable net sales decline in the range of approximately 10% to 7% for the comparable 13-week period last year. The company expects its SG&A to be in the range of approximately $48 million to $49 million, and its effective income tax rate to be near 0% due to the continuing impact of the deferred tax asset valuation allowance. Tilly's estimates its after-tax results to be in the range of a net loss of approximately $3.9 million to $0.9 million, or a net loss per share of $0.13 to $0.03, respectively.

The company noted that due to the impact of the 53rd week in fiscal 2023, there will be a meaningful shift in net sales into the second quarter from the third quarter when comparing to last year. Specifically, a $26.2 million back-to-school net sales week for the first week of last year's third quarter will now become the comparable week for the final week of this year's second quarter, while the $7.8 million net sales week from the first week of last year's fourth quarter becomes the final comparable week of the third quarter this year, creating an $18.4 million net sales decline for the third quarter of this year relative to last year's third quarter before consideration of any comp sales assumption.

Recent Developments

Despite the short-term challenges, Tilly's continues to invest in its business for the longer term. The company implemented a new merchandise planning and allocation tool in early April, followed by the implementation of a new warehouse management software for its stores distribution center in early May. While these implementations caused some complications that slowed product replenishment to stores during May, the company believes it is now starting to get back towards a normal level of distribution productivity for its stores. Tilly's also plans to complete the implementation of the same warehouse management software in its e-commerce distribution center this month, as well as implement new markdown optimization software and improve search engine optimization capabilities ahead of the holiday season.

Tilly's has also been testing new marketing ideas to focus on creating greater connectivity with its existing customer base and attracting new customers. The company believes these new efforts give it a chance to build greater customer following and generate a positive business impact over time, though it may take six to nine months before the full impact can be seen and understood.

In terms of the company's merchandise strategy, Tilly's has been making efforts to better align its initial pricing decisions with the competition in certain product categories, reconsidering its promotional pricing and markdown practices to drive improved average unit retail values, and increasing the focus on its best-selling items. The company believes these initiatives have contributed to the 130 basis points of product margin improvement in the first quarter, though it cautions that there can be no guarantee that it can continue to produce this level of improvement in the short-term given the current macroeconomic environment.

Tilly's has a long history of serving its loyal customer base, and the company is focused on both retaining its existing customers and attracting younger shoppers. While the current consumer environment remains challenging, the company is optimistic that its strategic initiatives, including its new marketing campaigns and merchandise improvements, will help it generate better results over the longer term.

Conclusion

Overall, Tilly's is navigating a difficult macroeconomic landscape with resilience and a steadfast commitment to improving its business for the future. The company's investments in technology, marketing, and merchandise strategies, coupled with its strong liquidity position, position it well to weather the current storm and emerge stronger in the years to come.

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