UAN - Fundamentals, Financials, History, and Analysis
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CVR Partners, LP (UAN) is a leading manufacturer of ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) solution fertilizer products, catering to the agricultural industry in the United States. Formed in 2011 as a spin-off from CVR Energy, Inc., the partnership has established itself as a reliable supplier of essential crop nutrients, leveraging its two production facilities strategically located in Coffeyville, Kansas and East Dubuque, Illinois.

Business Overview and Operational Highlights CVR Partners’ history can be traced back to the early 1900s, when the Coffeyville Facility was originally built as a gasification plant. Over the decades, the facility has undergone numerous transformations, eventually becoming a state-of-the-art nitrogen fertilizer production site. In 2008, CVR Energy acquired the Coffeyville Facility, and in 2011, the partnership was formed to own and operate both the Coffeyville and East Dubuque Facilities.

The partnership’s principal products are ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), which are used by farmers to improve the yield and quality of their crops, primarily corn and wheat. CVR Partners sells all of its products on a wholesale basis in the United States.

Since its formation, CVR Partners has faced various challenges, including volatile commodity markets and fluctuating input costs, particularly for natural gas and pet coke. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 posed a significant challenge, disrupting supply chains and depressing demand for nitrogen fertilizers. In response, the partnership implemented cost-cutting measures and optimized its operations to weather the downturn.

Despite these challenges, CVR Partners has achieved important milestones. In 2021, the partnership successfully refinanced its debt, extending the maturity profile and providing more financial flexibility. This allowed the company to focus on improving the reliability and efficiency of its production facilities.

In recent years, CVR Partners has made strides in reducing its environmental impact by investing in projects to improve energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions at its facilities. These initiatives have helped the company position itself as a more sustainable producer of nitrogen fertilizers.

Today, CVR Partners’ two production plants have a combined annual nameplate capacity of approximately 1.7 million tons of ammonia and 2.1 million tons of UAN. The partnership’s operational excellence is highlighted by its strong ammonia utilization rates, which averaged 96% for the first nine months of 2024, despite facing some unplanned downtime at its upgrading units during the third quarter.

Financial Performance and Liquidity CVR Partners’ financial performance has been marked by volatility, reflecting the cyclical nature of the nitrogen fertilizer industry. For the nine months ended September 30, 2024, the partnership reported net sales of $385.8 million, net income of $42.6 million, and EBITDA of $129.1 million. While these figures represent a decline compared to the same period in 2023, the partnership has demonstrated its ability to navigate challenging market conditions.

In the most recent fiscal year 2023, CVR Partners reported revenue of $681.48 million, net income of $172.43 million, operating cash flow of $243.53 million, and free cash flow of $219.33 million. For the third quarter of 2024, the partnership reported revenue of $125.20 million, net income of $3.81 million, operating cash flow of $137.75 million, and free cash flow of $82.26 million. Compared to Q3 2023, revenue decreased by 4.1% due to lower UAN sales volumes, but net income increased from $0.73 million as a result of lower utility costs from decreased natural gas and electricity prices.

As of September 30, 2024, CVR Partners maintained a solid liquidity position, with $110.5 million in cash and cash equivalents and an additional $39.3 million available under its ABL Credit Facility, totaling $149.8 million in total liquidity. The partnership’s debt-to-equity ratio stood at 1.91, while its current ratio was 2.15 and quick ratio was 1.44. This financial flexibility allows the partnership to fund its capital expenditure requirements, which are estimated to be between $39 million and $42 million for the full year 2024, with a focus on maintenance and reliability-enhancing projects.

Navigating Volatile Market Conditions The nitrogen fertilizer industry is heavily influenced by global supply and demand dynamics, as well as fluctuations in key input costs, such as natural gas and petroleum coke. CVR Partners has demonstrated its ability to adapt to these market conditions, leveraging its operational expertise and strategic assets.

During the third quarter of 2024, the partnership benefited from stronger demand for its products, particularly ammonia and UAN, as evidenced by the 9% and 3% year-over-year increases in average selling prices, respectively. This was driven by low customer and producer inventories ahead of the fall application season, as well as global supply disruptions affecting the nitrogen fertilizer market.

For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2024, CVR Partners sold 61,000 tons and 191,000 tons of net ammonia available for sale, respectively. UAN sales volumes for the same periods were 321,000 tons and 964,000 tons, respectively. These sales volumes were lower compared to the prior year due to a 14-day planned outage at the Coffeyville facility during the first quarter of 2024 and some minor unplanned outages at both facilities during the current period.

Looking ahead, CVR Partners remains cautiously optimistic about the industry’s prospects, recognizing the potential for continued volatility. The partnership is closely monitoring geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East and Europe, which could impact energy and fertilizer markets. Additionally, the partnership is progressing with engineering studies to explore the potential utilization of natural gas as an alternative feedstock to its Coffeyville Facility, which could provide additional operational flexibility and cost advantages.

For the fourth quarter of 2024, CVR Partners estimates its ammonia utilization rate to be between 92% and 97%, with some potential downtime expected with the third-party air separation unit at Coffeyville. The partnership expects direct operating expenses, excluding inventory impacts, to be between $60 million and $70 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. Total capital spending for the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to be between $19 million and $23 million, with full-year 2024 capital spending estimated at $39 million to $42 million, of which $31 million to $33 million is expected to be maintenance capital.

Risks and Challenges As with any investment, CVR Partners is subject to a range of risks and challenges that investors should carefully consider. These include:

1. Commodity price volatility: The partnership’s financial performance is heavily influenced by fluctuations in the prices of its key products, ammonia and UAN, as well as input costs such as natural gas and petroleum coke.

2. Operational disruptions: Unplanned outages or shutdowns at the partnership’s production facilities could impact its ability to meet customer demand and affect financial results.

3. Regulatory and environmental compliance: The nitrogen fertilizer industry is subject to extensive regulations, particularly regarding environmental and safety standards, which could result in increased compliance costs or operational limitations.

4. Competitive landscape: CVR Partners operates in a highly competitive industry, with both domestic and global players vying for market share, which could put pressure on product pricing and margins.

5. Geopolitical and economic uncertainties: Factors such as trade policies, regional conflicts, and global economic conditions can significantly impact the partnership’s business and financial performance.

6. Industry cyclicality: The nitrogen fertilizer industry has historically been cyclical, with volatility in product prices, utilization, and operating costs affected by global supply and demand dynamics, world grain demand and production, changes in world population, fertilizer transportation costs, weather conditions, and feedstock availability and prices.

Conclusion CVR Partners, LP (UAN) has established itself as a resilient player in the nitrogen fertilizer industry, leveraging its operational expertise and strategic asset base to navigate volatile market conditions. The partnership’s focus on reliability, cost management, and strategic initiatives, such as exploring alternative feedstock options, position it to capitalize on the long-term fundamentals of the agricultural sector. While the partnership faces various risks and challenges, its strong liquidity, prudent capital allocation, and commitment to sustainable operations provide a solid foundation for future growth and value creation for unitholders.

The partnership’s ability to maintain profitability and a strong liquidity position in the face of industry challenges demonstrates its resilience and adaptability. As CVR Partners continues to focus on safe and reliable operations, cost management, capital discipline, and opportunities to reduce its carbon footprint, it remains well-positioned to navigate the cyclical nature of the nitrogen fertilizer industry and capitalize on future opportunities for growth and value creation.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or other types of advice. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information presented here, the author and the publisher do not make any guarantees about the completeness, reliability, and accuracy of this information.

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