Macy's, Inc. (M)

Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Bold New Chapter Delivering Tangible Results: Macy's reimagined store initiative—now 125 locations—has generated four consecutive quarters of outperformance versus the fleet, while luxury banners Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury posted their strongest comps in 13 quarters and 19th consecutive quarter of growth respectively, demonstrating the strategy is gaining measurable traction.

• Aggressive Capital Allocation Reshapes the Business: The company closed 64 underperforming stores in 2024 (ahead of its 50-store target), is monetizing $600-750 million in real estate through 2026, reduced capex for two straight years, and returned $350 million to shareholders in Q3 2025 alone via dividends and buybacks, fundamentally improving the margin structure and cash generation profile.

• Tariff Mitigation Proves Supply Chain Agility: China sourcing has been slashed to approximately 20% from over 50% pre-pandemic, with Q3 2025 tariff impact limited to 50 basis points—better than the anticipated 40-60 basis points—showing management's proactive approach is protecting gross margins in a volatile trade environment.

• Balance Sheet De-Risking Provides Strategic Flexibility: Net debt was reduced by $340 million in July 2025, debt maturities extended to 2030, and the company maintains $2 billion in ABL capacity while targeting investment-grade leverage of 2.5x debt/EBITDA, creating a durable financial foundation for the turnaround.

• Consumer Headwinds Demand Prudent Guidance: Despite Q3's strongest comps in 13 quarters, management maintains a cautious Q4 outlook assuming a "choiceful consumer," reflecting disciplined planning rather than optimism, with gross margin pressure from tariffs and promotional flexibility built into guidance.

Setting the Scene: A 195-Year-Old Retailer Reinvents Itself

Macy's, Inc., founded in 1830 and headquartered in New York City, traces its origins to a dry goods store in Manhattan before evolving into one of America's most iconic department store chains. The company underwent a significant rebranding in June 2007, changing from Federated Department Stores to Macy's, Inc. to reflect its transformation into an omni-channel retail organization operating stores, websites, and mobile applications across 43 states. Today, the business operates under three distinct nameplates—Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury—each targeting different segments of the consumer spectrum from mass-market to luxury beauty.

The department store industry has faced existential headwinds for over a decade, pressured by e-commerce disruption, shifting consumer preferences, and excess mall-based real estate. Macy's response, launched in early 2024, is a three-year "Bold New Chapter" strategy designed to return the company to sustainable profitable growth by reimagining the customer experience, accelerating luxury banners, and modernizing operations. This isn't a defensive retrenchment but an offensive repositioning that acknowledges the old model is broken while building a more focused, profitable, and agile retailer.

Macy's sits in the middle of a bifurcated retail landscape. On one side, off-price retailers like TJX (TJX) and digital natives like Amazon (AMZN) capture value-conscious shoppers with convenience and price. On the other, luxury players like Nordstrom (JWN) and specialty beauty retailers serve affluent consumers seeking experience and curation. Macy's multi-brand, multi-category, multi-channel, and multi-price point model—encompassing everything from Macy's Backstage off-price to Bloomingdale's luxury—provides sourcing optionality and customer diversification that pure-play competitors lack. This structural flexibility is becoming a decisive advantage in an environment where tariffs, supply chain volatility, and uneven consumer spending demand adaptability.

Technology, Products, and Strategic Differentiation: The Reimagine Playbook

The cornerstone of Macy's transformation is its reimagined store initiative, which expanded from 50 pilot locations to 125 stores in early 2025. These stores represent 36% of the go-forward fleet and have delivered four consecutive quarters of outperformance across traffic, average order value, and Net Promoter Scores. This proves that physical retail isn't dead—it's just evolving. The reimagined locations feature enhanced staffing, improved visual merchandising, and better integration of digital tools, creating a seamless omnichannel experience that online-only players cannot replicate. The 2.7% comparable sales growth in Q3 2025 at these locations versus flat performance elsewhere demonstrates that investment in the store environment drives measurable financial returns, validating the strategy's capital allocation.

Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury serve as Macy's luxury growth engines, insulating the company from the margin pressure affecting mid-tier retail. Bloomingdale's posted a 9.0% comparable sales increase in Q3 2025—its best in 13 quarters—driven by ready-to-wear, men's apparel, fine jewelry, and exclusive brand partnerships with designers like Zimmermann and Victoria Beckham. Bluemercury achieved its 19th consecutive quarter of comparable sales growth, fueled by dermatological skincare and expanded partnerships with luxury fragrance houses like Parfums de Marly and Byredo. These banners carry higher gross margins and attract a more resilient customer base, providing a natural hedge against economic softness in the core Macy's demographic.

Operational modernization is equally critical. The new 2.5 million square foot China Grove distribution center in North Carolina, opened in mid-2025, incorporates automation, robotics, and AI to support all product categories from a single location. This consolidation reduces delivery costs, expands reach, and enables faster fulfillment. The facility's design reflects a fundamental shift from a fragmented, store-centric supply chain to a unified, digital-first logistics network. For investors, this translates into structural cost savings that should persist beyond the current turnaround phase, improving long-term margin potential.

Digital sales accounted for 31% of net sales in Q3 2025, up from 29% in the prior year, while Macy's Marketplace grew gross merchandise value by approximately 40% in Q1 2025. This digital penetration diversifies revenue beyond physical stores, reduces fixed cost leverage risk, and captures younger, digitally-native customers. The Marketplace platform is particularly strategic, filling white space in assortments with third-party sellers without requiring inventory investment, effectively turning Macy's website into a scalable platform business.

Financial Performance: Evidence of Strategic Execution

Macy's Q3 2025 results provide the clearest evidence that the Bold New Chapter strategy is working. The company achieved its strongest comparable sales growth in 13 quarters at 2.0% (owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace), with the go-forward Macy's business up 2.3% and reimagined locations up 2.7%. The net sales decline of 0.6% was entirely attributable to the closure of 64 non-go-forward stores that contributed $160 million in the prior-year period. Excluding these closures, sales grew 2.9%—an acceleration from Q2's 0.9% adjusted growth. The top line is strengthening at the core business level, even as management actively shrinks the unprofitable footprint.

Gross margin pressure remains a headwind but is being managed effectively. The Q3 2025 gross margin rate of 39.4% was down 20 basis points year-over-year, but this included a 50 basis point tariff impact. Excluding tariffs, gross margin would have expanded by 30 basis points, reflecting better inventory management and favorable shortage results. The company has reduced China sourcing to approximately 20% from over 50% pre-pandemic, demonstrating supply chain agility that protects profitability. For investors, this implies that tariff headwinds are transitory and manageable, not structural threats to the business model.

SG&A expenses decreased $40 million in Q3 2025, or 1.5%, reflecting benefits from closed locations and cost containment efforts. As a percent of total revenue, SG&A levered by 90 basis points to 41.2% versus 42.1% in the prior year. The company is maintaining customer-facing investments in the go-forward business while eliminating overhead associated with underperforming stores. Core adjusted EBITDA, excluding asset sale gains, was $273 million or 5.6% of total revenue in Q3, exceeding guidance of 3.3% to 3.7% and last year's 4.2% result. The 140 basis point improvement demonstrates that the strategy is driving not just sales growth but genuine operational efficiency.

Inventory management has improved markedly. Inventory dollars were up just 0.7% year-over-year at the end of Q3, in line with expectations and reflecting tariff-related cost increases, while units were down. This disciplined approach reduces markdown risk and working capital requirements, freeing up cash for higher-return activities like store reimaging and debt reduction. The company is no longer chasing sales growth through excessive inventory builds, a common pitfall in retail turnarounds.

Segment performance reveals a tale of two businesses. The Macy's nameplate generated $4.8 billion in Q3 sales, with positive comps in reimagined locations offsetting softness elsewhere. Bloomingdale's comparable sales surged 9.0% on top of strong prior-year results, while Bluemercury's 1.1% comp marked its 19th consecutive quarter of growth. Other revenue, primarily credit card income, grew 17.6% to $187 million, driven by a healthy credit portfolio and prudent loss management. Luxury and financial services provide higher-margin, more stable contributions that reduce dependence on the challenged mid-tier department store model.

Outlook, Management Guidance, and Execution Risk

Macy's raised its full-year 2025 guidance following the Q3 beat, a clear signal of management confidence in the underlying trajectory. Net sales are now expected at $21.475 to $21.625 billion, up from prior guidance of $21.15 to $21.45 billion. Core adjusted EBITDA margin guidance improved to 7.7% to 7.9% from 7.5% to 7.8%. Adjusted EPS guidance increased to $2.00 to $2.20 from $1.85 to $2.05. The strategy is delivering financial results ahead of plan, not just operational metrics.

However, management's Q4 guidance reflects characteristic prudence. Net sales are projected at $7.35 to $7.5 billion with comparable sales down approximately 2.5% to flat, and core adjusted EBITDA margin of 9.4% to 10.1%. CEO Tony Spring explicitly stated the guidance "represents the reality of a more choiceful consumer based on the breadth of aspirational customers who shop our brands during the fourth quarter." Management is prioritizing guidance credibility over optimism, building in flexibility for promotional activity and competitive response. For investors, this reduces the risk of a future disappointment but also caps near-term upside expectations.

The guidance embeds several key assumptions. Tariff impact for the full year is estimated at 40 to 50 basis points, better than the previously anticipated 40 to 60 basis points, reflecting successful mitigation efforts. Asset sale gains are now expected at $60 to $65 million for the year, down from prior expectations of $90 to $100 million, which will pressure Q4 EPS by approximately $0.07 to $0.08. The company is assuming current tariff rates remain in place and is building in flexibility to respond to the competitive environment. Management is planning for a range of scenarios while maintaining operational discipline.

Execution risk centers on three variables. First, the pace of reimagine store rollout—management plans to continue investing in these locations while closing underperforming stores—must maintain its positive ROI. Second, the luxury banners must sustain their momentum despite potential economic softening among affluent consumers. Third, the company must realize the projected $600 to $750 million in real estate monetization through 2026 to fund the turnaround and maintain its de-leveraging trajectory. The Q3 beat provides evidence that execution is solid, but these variables will determine whether the stock can re-rate higher.

Risks and Asymmetries: What Could Break the Thesis

Tariff escalation remains the most visible risk, though management's mitigation success to date provides some comfort. The company has reduced China exposure to approximately 20% of sourcing, but further rate increases or expansion to other countries could overwhelm these efforts. The guidance assumes current tariffs remain in place, but trade policy volatility creates uncertainty. If tariffs increase materially, gross margins could face 70 to 100 basis points of pressure in Q4, requiring either price increases that could dampen demand or margin absorption that would pressure profitability. The asymmetry here is that while Macy's has proven it can mitigate, there is a limit to how much cost can be passed to a choiceful consumer.

Consumer spending deterioration represents a more fundamental risk. Management's "choiceful consumer" framing acknowledges that middle to upper-income shoppers are being more selective with discretionary purchases. Survey data shows 6.6% of consumers know someone laid off in the past six months, and 51% expect more layoffs in the next six months. If employment conditions weaken materially, Macy's core customer base could pull back sharply, particularly on big-ticket items like furniture and fine jewelry that have been recent outperformers. The asymmetry is that Macy's luxury banners provide some insulation, but a broad consumer retrenchment would overwhelm even Bloomingdale's resilience.

Supply chain disruption beyond tariffs could pressure operations. The 10-Q cites risks from shipping delays, port congestion, worker shortages, and increased shipping rates. While the China Grove distribution center adds redundancy, the company still depends on global logistics networks. Any major disruption could impact product availability during the critical holiday season, leading to lost sales or forced markdowns on incomplete assortments. This risk is moderate but rises during peak shipping periods.

The balance sheet, while improved, still carries leverage. Debt-to-EBITDA stands at 2.5x on a trailing basis, and the company has $2.4 billion in total debt. While maturities are now extended to 2030 and liquidity is ample with $2 billion in ABL capacity, any major deterioration in EBITDA could pressure covenant compliance. The asymmetry is that management is actively de-leveraging, but retail turnarounds can be volatile, and a misstep could constrain financial flexibility.

Insider selling activity warrants monitoring. Over the past three months, insiders sold 262,843 shares, which could signal concern about near-term prospects or simply reflect personal financial planning. While not definitive, persistent insider selling alongside weak guidance would be a red flag. Conversely, insider buying at current levels would provide a strong vote of confidence.

Valuation Context: Positioning for a Turnaround

At $22.93 per share, Macy's trades at 13.03 times trailing earnings, 0.27 times sales, and 7.70 times EV/EBITDA. These multiples place it in the value camp among retailers, reflecting skepticism about sustainable growth. The P/FCF multiple of 10.21 and FCF yield of approximately 9.8% suggest the market is pricing in modest expectations, creating potential upside if the turnaround executes.

Relative to direct peers, Macy's valuation appears reasonable but not compelling. Nordstrom trades at 13.80 times earnings with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.76, significantly more levered than Macy's 1.23. Dillard's (DDS) commands a premium at 18.74 times earnings due to its superior 11.41% operating margin and 28.98% ROE, but its growth is slower and it lacks Macy's real estate optionality. Kohl's (KSS) trades at a similar 13.30 P/E but faces more structural challenges with a 2.15% operating margin and 5.04% ROE. Macy's sits in the middle—better positioned than Kohl's but lacking Dillard's operational excellence.

The real estate monetization target of $600 to $750 million through 2026 provides a tangible valuation floor. With a current enterprise value of $10.81 billion, this represents 5.5% to 6.9% of EV, providing a clear catalyst for debt reduction and share repurchases. The company has already monetized $95 million in Q3 2025, down from $187 million in the prior year, suggesting a measured pace that preserves asset values. For investors, this monetization is a form of hidden balance sheet value being unlocked to fund the turnaround.

The dividend yield of 3.21% with a 40.47% payout ratio indicates a sustainable return of capital while retaining earnings for reinvestment. The remaining $1.2 billion share repurchase authorization, if executed at current prices, would retire approximately 19% of shares outstanding, providing significant EPS accretion. This capital allocation shows management is confident in the stock's value and willing to return cash rather than hoard it.

Conclusion: Execution and Environment Will Determine the Outcome

Macy's investment case hinges on whether the Bold New Chapter strategy can generate sustainable profitable growth while external headwinds persist. The Q3 2025 results provide compelling evidence that the operational turnaround is working: reimagined stores are outperforming, luxury banners are accelerating, gross margin pressure from tariffs is being mitigated, and SG&A leverage is improving. Simultaneously, aggressive capital allocation through store closures, real estate monetization, and shareholder returns is reshaping the financial profile.

The central tension is that management is executing well but remains appropriately cautious about the consumer environment. This prudence reduces downside risk but also caps near-term multiple expansion. For the thesis to outperform, either the consumer proves more resilient than feared—allowing Macy's to beat its conservative guidance—or the market begins to price in the structural improvements even without top-line acceleration.

Two variables will likely decide the outcome. First, the pace of real estate monetization and debt reduction, which provides tangible valuation support and financial flexibility. Second, the trajectory of consumer spending in early 2026, which will determine whether the positive comp trends at reimagined stores can offset continued pressure in the legacy fleet. If both align favorably, Macy's could re-rate from a value multiple to a turnaround premium, rewarding patient investors who looked past the headline challenges to see the fundamental improvements underway.